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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Hi everyone! I am traveling tomorrow afternoon from Wilmington, NC south on hwy 17 to Hilton Head, SC. That said, I was wondering where would likely be the best place to go in the Charleston area to document the worst flooding? I ask because I'm totally unfamiliar with that area. Thanks in advance!

Edit: In other words, which areas are typically more prone to flooding?

I would think significant portions of US-17 are going to be closed, and you almost certainly will not be allowed in downtown Charleston.

 

You will have an extremely difficult time getting anywhere in SC today.

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News 19 WLTX ‏@WLTX 7m7 minutes ago

NWS: Forest Lake and Arcadia Lakes dams have not failed but water is spilling over already http://on.wltx.com/1OP2Q5N

It is a breach and water has totally engulfed them but they have not failed yet. Forest lake dam was completely rebuilt about 20 years ago. It should be very strong.

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It seems like things are really deteriorating around Columbia this morning. They just showed a broadcast of the Garners Ferry Road area -- one I've been down here enough to be somewhat familiar with. Completely flooded out.

 

It's strange. I sit here in the second floor of a high rise apartment with the window open, hearing the rain fall. A soothing sound and not unwelcome given the stresses of this week for me personally. Yet that soothing rain is creating such havoc and even misery across the area. Generally these flash flooding rains come with severe thunderstorms -- wind and lightning, etc. -- so the severity of the situation is punctuated by the drama inherent in a thunderstorm. Not so here, even though this is truly a disaster in the making.

 

I've been down here enough to consider Columbia something of a second home. I'm right fond of the city although I could never live here: as hot as DC is, ain't nothing compared to the summers around here. Hopefully the damage to people, pets, and property will be limited.

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mcd0551.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0551NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1026 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 041415Z - 042015Z SUMMARY...A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING.WIDESPREAD SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING WILLCONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUMEFEEDING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THECLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS BEEN SLOWLYPIVOTING IN A CYCLONIC FASHION TO MORE OF A WEST/EAST ORIENTATION.THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PERSISTENT AND INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALLAND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO PIVOTVERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH HAS TAKEN THE WORST OF THERAINFALL OUT OF THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA FOR THE TIMEBEING.THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS COINCIDING WITH TREMENDOUS MID ANDUPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPERLOW...WHICH IS FOSTERING VIGOROUS ASCENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH1.8 TO 2.3 INCH PW VALUES AS PER GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA.  SOMEOF THIS MOISTURE AGAIN IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN WELLOFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE CIRA LAYERED PWPRODUCT. A RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOTED TOO NEARTHE COASTAL FRONT AND OFFSHORE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG NEAR THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYERMOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO THE BOUNDARY ARECONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES...WHICH ARE NEAR 3INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE COAST. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERTHE NEXT SIX HOURS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BEON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN WELL IN EXCESS 12 INCHES OFRAIN...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 20 INCHES. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTSOVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ANDEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WITH A STRONGER FOCUS CLOSER TO THENORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ISNOTED. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXACERBATE WHAT IS ALREADY A SERIOUSLIFE-THREATENING EVENT WITH SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASHFLOODING.
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It is getting bad quickly all over the Columbia/Lexington area.  National news keeps focusing on Charleston.  But Columbia has reports of people trapped in homes, cars, etc.  I have several friends who have 3-5 feet of water in first level of home and it is rising. 911 is overwhelmed with calls.  Lake Murray Dam is about to release water to ease flooding around Lake.  That is going to increase flooding down stream here in the West Columbia area.  

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