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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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CAE going with a Flood Advisory for the time being with the latest round for the counties generally along and west of I-26 in their CWA:

FLOOD ADVISORYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1000 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...  MCDUFFIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  BURKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  RICHMOND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  NORTHWESTERN BAMBERG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  SOUTHWESTERN KERSHAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  NEWBERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  EDGEFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  MCCORMICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 100 AM EDT* AT 957 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO  WIDESPREAD RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF  AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING  IN THE ADVISORY AREA. STREET FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  ADVISORY AREA.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  COLUMBIA...SUMTER...AIKEN...NORTH AUGUSTA...LEXINGTON...WEST  COLUMBIA...ORANGEBURG...CAYCE...GROVETOWN...IRMO...EVANS...FOREST  ACRES...NEWBERRY...THOMSON...WAYNESBORO...BARNWELL...MANNING...  BAMBERG...DENMARK AND SPRINGDALE.
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Thought I heard distant thunder in Shandon but realized it was a sliding glass door in my sister's apartment building.

 

Getting some moderate to heavy rain in downtown Columbia now. No street flooding to speak of around USC/5 Points/Capital area; we really haven't had any torrential rains right here for any substantial period today. Breezy.

 

Oops, realized there was an obs thread this prolly should have gone in instead.

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mcd0549.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0549NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1005 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC, WESTERN NC, & NORTHEAST GA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 040204Z - 040804Z SUMMARY...RAINFALL COVERAGE, EXPANSION, AND INTENSIFICATION HASBEEN SEEN ACROSS SC OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  CATASTROPHICFLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.DISCUSSION...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGYARE MOVING UP A WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICHCONNECTS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE NEAR CHARLESTON TO HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCEIS SIGNIFICANT.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 30-50 KTS (ROUGHLY 15 KTSLOWER THAN INDICATED ON THE 02/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE), NEAR THEMAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUESIN THE REGION ARE 1.7-2.3" PER GPS VALUES, AROUND 1.5 SIGMAS ABOVETHE MEAN FOR EARLY OCTOBER.  MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NEARTHE SC COAST, WHICH ARE ADVECTING FARTHER INLAND AS CIN DEVELOPSACROSS THE REGION.  A COASTAL FRONT JUST INSIDE THE SC/NC COASTHAS STALLED AS OF LATE AND IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIONWITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES.  AN OBSERVATION NEAR CHARLESTONSC INDICATES RECENT RAIN RATE OF 3" AN HOUR, WITH A STORM TOTALNEAR 15" -- LIKELY THE WETTEST STORM ON RECORD FOR THE CHARLESTONAREA.THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH COULD FALLQUICKLY.  DESPITE THEIR HIGH BIAS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z, THE CAMGUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC IN THEIR PORTRAYAL OF PRECIPITATIONOVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS.  RAIN RATES OF 3" AN HOUR COULD MIGRATEFARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF SC, WITH 1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATESPOSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST APPALACHIANS WHERE INSTABILITY ISFARTHER AFIELD.  RAIN RATES THIS HIGH WOULD CREATE SIGNIFICANTPROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS CHARLESTON,GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG, COLUMBIA, AUGUSTA, AND THE ATLANTASUBURBS.  RADAR ESTIMATES REMAIN QUITE LOW IN THIS REGION, RUNNINGROUGHLY 30-50% BELOW ACTUAL REPORTS.  SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATEACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND NORTHWEST SC WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESSHEAVY.  CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED, CATASTROPHIC FLASHFLOODING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LANDSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES IN THETERRAIN REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
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270

NWUS52 KCHS 040207

LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

1006 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0948 PM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON AIRPORT 32.90N 80.04W

10/03/2015 M13.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC ASOS

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AT THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT. BREAKS THE ALL TIME 3 DAY RECORD. 10.02 INCHES

HAS FALLEN TODAY.

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It looks like that band is coming slightly back to the north. More of upstate SC may be going to get hit hard tonight than just the lower piedmont and areas near the Savannah river. This band will be dropping rain at a higher rate than the one last night did and could last all night or longer in many areas.

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It looks like that band is coming slightly back to the north. More of upstate SC may be going to get hit hard tonight than just the lower piedmont and areas near the Savannah river. This band will be dropping rain at a higher rate than the one last night did and could last all night or longer in many areas.

Raining hardest it has all day! The heavier rain showers seem to bring stronger winds to the surface, it seems!
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Raining hardest it has all day! The heavier rain showers seem to bring stronger winds to the surface, it seems!

You have a massive area of even heavier rain about 1 hour out coming your way. It look like it may stay "just" south of me, but not by far. The city of Greenville may be in for it tonight.

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You have a massive area of even heavier rain about 1 hour out coming your way. It look like it may stay "just" south of me, but not by far. The city of Greenville may be in for it tonight.

You are correct about the northward push. That band was supposed to stay well south of me, but instead i am in the band. Moderate to heavy rains and strong, gusty winds.

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You are correct about the northward push. That band was supposed to stay well south of me, but instead i am in the band. Moderate to heavy rains and strong, gusty winds.

You are in for it where you are I'm afraid unless that band really comes farther north.or somehow heads back to the south. It is coming down like crazy from near St. Mattews back to north of Charleston and that band seems to be headed your way.

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FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

1205 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DORCHESTER

COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...

CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

COLLETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT SUNDAY

* AT 1155 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING

ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

DORCHESTER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE OAKBROOK AREA. DORCHESTER COUNTY

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT SWIFT WATER RESCUE TEAMS ARE EN

ROUTE TO THE OAKBROOK AREA...BETWEEN MILES JAMISON ROAD...OLD

TROLLEY ROAD...AND LADSON ROAD. FLOOD WATERS WERE ENTERING HOMES IN

THE AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 10-15 INCHES HAVE

FALLEN...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 6

AM WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

WILL ONLY SERVE TO WORSEN THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN

DORCHESTER COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...SUMMERVILLE...WALTERBORO...EDISTO

BEACH...SAINT GEORGE...MIDDLETON PLACE AND LADSON.

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Flash Flood EMERGENCY for Oakbrook area (in Summerville).

I'm 2 miles ENE of Oakbrook and the two adjoining neighborhoods nezt to me are flooded due to Eagle Creek overflowing ita banks. Swift Water rescues are ongoing. I have now picked up almost 13" of rain since 10 am Friday.

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Some WFO's use this for severe flooding situations in densely populated areas. 1st I can ever recall being issued by CHS...

First for Dorchester County I assure you. Sirens currently blaring in Oakbrook. Dorchester Co. sheriff's office truck patrolling the neighborhood right now.

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Central/Southern Midlands currently getting slammed with this band that has set up over the area:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1225 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015ORANGEBURG SC-CALHOUN SC-RICHLAND SC-CLARENDON SC-SUMTER SC-1225 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT FOREASTERN ORANGEBURG...CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...SOUTHWESTERNCLARENDON AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...AT 1217 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUEOVER THE WARNED AREA.CALHOUN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTEDSEVERAL ROADS IN THE COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING...INCLUDINGHIGHWAY 6 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN ST. MATTHEWS AND ELLOREE. INADDITION...THE SMALL EARTHEN DAM AT LAKE INSPIRATION IN THE TOWN OFST. MATTHEWS MAY BE IN DANGER OF FAILING.ORANGEBURG COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING INPROGRESS. SEVERAL ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING IN THE HOLLYHILL AND EUTAWVILLE VICINITY. IN ADDITION...FLOODING OF HOMES ANDBUSINESSES HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HOLLY HILL AND EUTAWVILLEVICINITY...AND WATER RESCUES WERE ALSO IN PROGRESS ACROSS THAT AREA.SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED FOR RESIDENTS.SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ORANGEBURG...MANNING...BROOKDALE...ST. MATTHEWS...HOLLY HILL...SUMMERTON...BOWMAN...ELLOREE...SANTEE...PINEWOOD...CAMERON...EUTAWVILLE...ROWESVILLE...PAXVILLE...VANCE...CORDOVA...WILKINSONHEIGHTS AND EDISTO.
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I'm 2 miles ENE of Oakbrook and the two adjoining neighborhoods nezt to me are flooded due to Eagle Creek overflowing ita banks. Swift Water rescues are ongoing. I have now picked up almost 13" of rain since 10 am Friday.

Stay safe Stormsfury.  The WPC and NWS concerns for historic flooding were warranted.  Long way to go down there unfortunately with upper low just crawling east.

 

CHS.gif
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Insult to injury...broad rotation with this cell as well:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
  BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1226 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF
  MONCKS CORNER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

 

  IMPACT...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. STEPHEN...BONNEAU...JAMESTOWN...BONNEAU BEACH...SAINT STEPHEN
  AND NORTHERN LAKE MOULTRIE.

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Darlin' I'm glad ya'll were able to repurpose those portals into rain generators!  It's just when the rain comes out of a hell portal there is no way to control it, lol.  I hope you don't end up with a bit too much :)  Still, no better way to beat the drought, than to stomp it back thru the portals!  Tony

:lol:    I'm just glad the portals have been shut down at least temporarily   :lol:  

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