Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

Recommended Posts

Interesting, for those who thought it was over for the Central Midlands and Upstate.

 

 

mcd0547.gif

 

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0547
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC, SC, NORTHERN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 031958Z - 040158Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF AN
OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LENGTHEN/WORSEN THE FLASH FLOOD
EVENT. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OF AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATING OFFSHORE NEAR ITS TRIPLE POINT LOW, SOME COOLING HAS
BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GA. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING NEAR A
COASTAL FRONT IN EASTERN NC, AIMING TOWARDS AN AREA THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.1" LIE ACROSS THIS AREA, AT LEAST 1.5 SIGMAS
ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY OCTOBER. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 30-50 KTS,
ROUGHLY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IN THIS REGION HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY
3-6", WHICH HAS A RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF 10 YEARS. THE RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS GENERALLY REACHED THE 100 YEAR
RECURRENCE INTERVAL, WITH ISOLATED AREAS REACHING THE 1000 YEAR
RECURRENCE INTERVAL, AND MORE RAIN IS COMING.

THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANOTHER 4-7" OF RAIN SHOULD FALL
DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS, COMPOUNDING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.
RADAR ESTIMATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ~50% TOO LOW, MASKING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RAINFALL
ISSUES. IN THE MOUNTAINS, MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE
ANTICIPATED. IN THE LOW LANDS, FLAT SHEETS OF WATER COULD RISE IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN RATES EXCEED 2" AN HOUR, WHOSE IMPACTS WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE URBAN AREAS OF CHARLESTON, COLUMBIA, AUGUSTA,
GREENVILLE/ SPARTANBURG, AND THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTA SUBURBS.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
850 HPA INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, RAIN RATES OF 1.5"
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH RATES CLOSER TO 3"
AN HOUR POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL FRONT IN
NORTHEAST GA, CENTRAL SC AND SOUTHERN NC. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY, WHICH COULD BECOME CATASTROPHIC GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS
AND ONGOING FLOODING IN THE REGION.

ROTH
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 922
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Still a huge mess in the Lowcountry. CARTA bus service is closed down, there's many restaurants around downtown not open, losing an important weekend day, and the street closings are numerous.

Watching the Alabama-Georgia game (the Gamecocks played poorly today) and Channel 5 is scrolling road closings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still a huge mess in the Lowcountry. CARTA bus service is closed down, there's many restaurants around downtown not open, losing an important weekend day, and the street closings are numerous.

Watching the Alabama-Georgia game (the Gamecocks played poorly today) and Channel 5 is scrolling road closings.

Wow, thats not good. Looks like Bama is destroying Georgia right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weather forecasting models have become too much dependent on clown stats. I believe there needs to be some carefulness, because people are beginning to not have confidence in forecasting.

Don't need to let the guard down.

Exactly, 20 inches of rain is insane, who the hell wants that in their backyard??  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:wacko:   Surely he didn't mean that the way it read.

Indeed  :lol: 

 

Yeah I was having trouble with that too. I think he meant that entire sentence without the word "models" in there.

Okay....I'll go with that story  :D  

 

 

Anywho.......it's still raining here. My daughter in Spartanburg(Chesnee hwy) has this little trickle of a stream that runs across the street from her house. It is now an angry torrent  :(  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed   :lol:

 

Okay....I'll go with that story   :D

 

 

Anywho.......it's still raining here. My daughter in Spartanburg(Chesnee hwy) has this little trickle of a stream that runs across the street from her house. It is now an angry torrent   :(

Darlin' I'm glad ya'll were able to repurpose those portals into rain generators!  It's just when the rain comes out of a hell portal there is no way to control it, lol.  I hope you don't end up with a bit too much :)  Still, no better way to beat the drought, than to stomp it back thru the portals!  Tony

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has warmed up here and feels more tropical outside, with dewpoints up 10 degrees or so since this morning. It isn't time to let your guard down yet because of that change in dewpoints. It may be only in a few areas now, but if a band of thunderstorms forms and trains over an area, it may drop 3-5 inches in 1-2 hours. We had that happen here in 1990 after the major widespread rain had ended from a tropical storm. A band about 15 miles wide gave Union, Cherokee, eastern Laurens, and much of Spartanburg counties up to 5 inches of rain in 2 hours, on top of around 5-8 over the previous 3 days. Needless to say flash flooding was widespread and many creeks and rivers were above their floodstage for days. By the way, 1 such band is ongoing right now from near the Charleston doppler site, east southeast to the coast and beyond. That area is in trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the additional rainfall expected Tonight and Sunday. The axis of heaviest rainfall will shift south and west across the area to the Upper Savannah River Valley and Lower Piedmont of the Upstate. High water levels are occurring all across the area, so keep alert, even where lighter amounts of rainfall are expected. Turn around...Don't drown! ‪#‎gawx‬ ‪#‎scwx‬ ‪#‎ncwx‬

12087801_1027909487282355_52801961457792
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last 2 hours at CHS

 

METAR KCHS 040056Z 12011KT 3SM R15/5500VP6000FT +TSRA BR SCT007 OVC014CB 23/22 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 10031/0043 WSHFT 0032 SLP010 OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV NW P0162 T02330222

 

METAR KCHS 040156Z 15009KT 3SM R15/5500VP6000FT +TSRA BR SCT007 OVC011CB 23/22 A2958 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SLP015 OCNL LTGIC NW-N TS NW-N MOV NW P0206 T02280217

 

3.68" in 2 hours..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...