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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Well, those ridiculous totals for Lexington & Columbia area just may not verify from last night's 00z GFS.  I should have 7 inches in my back yard currently, along with others.  Not even close.

 

I think this is a good thing.   There is still more to come, but again, the ridiculous 20 inch+ totals most likely won't verify through here from real time observations and newer model data.

 

Still a high impact event ongoing though!

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Well, those ridiculous totals for Lexington & Columbia area just may not verify from last night's 00z GFS.  I should have 7 inches in my back yard currently, along with others.  Not even close.

 

I think this is a good thing.   There is still more to come, but again, the ridiculous 20 inch+ totals most likely won't verify through here from real time observations and newer model data.

 

Still a high impact event ongoing though!

A friend in St Matthews has had almost 6 since yesterday and his pond has now flooded him out, a friend in Sumter has had over 5 as of 6am. I've had about 3 since about an hr ago and it's still raining. It won't stop until tomorrow afternoon with several pulses moving threw as the weekend moves on. Just because you are not floating away, doesn't mean it isn't happening to someone around the area. Nobody believed the 20+ totals, but 12+" for some will be a reality as has been noted by the NWS. 

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A friend in St Matthews has had almost 6 since yesterday and his pond has now flooded him out, a friend in Sumter has had over 5 as of 6am. I've had about 3 since about an hr ago and it's still raining. It won't stop until tomorrow afternoon with several pulses moving threw as the weekend moves on. Just because you are not floating away, doesn't mean it isn't happening to someone around the area. Nobody believed the 20+ totals, but 12+" for some will be a reality as has been noted by the NWS. 

 

That's what I mean.  I was just saying that the big area of 20 inches + much less the 23 inches + as depicted by the 00z last night aren't exactly happening that is all.

 

This will still be a high impact event for the majority of us in SC.  But that 00z GFS was just ridiculously over done with that core of bright pink it had last night. 

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It might in Charleston though. Basically the entire area is in a flood situation. We've gotten 7-8" already with more and more coming. Like a heavy rain train. Flooding in areas where it doesn't usually flood.

All the local stations preempting programming for this. #chswx hashtag on Twitter has tons of photos.

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It might in Charleston though. Basically the entire area is in a flood situation. We've gotten 7-8" already with more and more coming. Like a heavy rain train. Flooding in areas where it doesn't usually flood.

All the local stations preempting programming for this. #chswx hashtag on Twitter has tons of photos.

 

You guys are literally getting dumped on radar right now.. and it doesnt look to be slowing down.

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That's what I mean.  I was just saying that the big area of 20 inches + much less the 23 inches + as depicted by the 00z last night aren't exactly happening that is all.

 

This will still be a high impact event for the majority of us in SC.  But that 00z GFS was just ridiculously over done with that core of bright pink it had last night. 

It's totally possible that someone in the csra gets close to 20. If it continues to rain like it has been in sumter they will jackpot. 

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CAE forecast is laughable so far

I suggest you only post in the banter thread from now on   ;)

 

Why?

Don't feed the trolls   :P   

 Below is from CAE's fb page....

Good morning. Here is a look at the total rainfall reports we've received so far. Highest amounts in our CWA in Chesterfield County are well illustrated with areas of 6 inches or more.

The axis of heaviest rainfall is expected to begin to tilt more in a northwest-to-southeast direction today, so the Midlands and CSRA can expect to see rainfall rates increasing later this morning into the afternoon. Also pictured is our latest storm total rainfall forecast through Monday morning at 8 PM EDT.

 
12108709_880404868702781_523803019815100
12109099_880404862036115_123080196065826
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Why?

 

There is a big hole that is not wanting to fill back in.  Some call it the Lake Murray Doom hole that has been around for a few years.  It's highly localized.. in my yard it seems HAHA!... and Columbia's rainfall should start ramping up shortly.

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I suggest you only post in the banter thread from now on   ;)

 

Don't feed the trolls   :P   

 Below is from CAE's fb page....

Good morning. Here is a look at the total rainfall reports we've received so far. Highest amounts in our CWA in Chesterfield County are well illustrated with areas of 6 inches or more.

The axis of heaviest rainfall is expected to begin to tilt more in a northwest-to-southeast direction today, so the Midlands and CSRA can expect to see rainfall rates increasing later this morning into the afternoon. Also pictured is our latest storm total rainfall forecast through Monday morning at 8 PM EDT.

 
 
 

 

 

 

There is a big hole that is not wanting to fill back in.  Some call it the Lake Murray Doom hole that has been around for a few years.  It's highly localized.. in my yard it seems HAHA!... and Columbia's rainfall should start ramping up shortly.

 

The radar looks sick for a lot of rain today into tomorrow for you three, I don't know what FLO is looking at.  It's going to rain and rain alot, your going to be hating life tonight into tomorrow morning.  Good luck, hope you got new roofs..

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The radar looks sick for a lot of rain today into tomorrow for you three, I don't know what FLO is looking at.  It's going to rain and rain alot, your going to be hating life tonight into tomorrow morning.  Good luck, hope you got new roofs..

I know right?!  :lol:  

 

 

 

Sigh.....I've had enough with the trolling   :gun_bandana:

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It's over for me, all but maybe a passing shower or drizzle till Monday when we can clear this out. ended up with 2.94 so catch a shower or two might hit the 3 inch mark.

Hopefully this band comes back or something I looked at your area from the GSP forecast totals map and we both should end up with at least 4inches or so. And that map was update at 8:50am this morning like to know what there seeing that I'm not for those totals.

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Loving that dry slot north of Cola to Spartanburg. Ought to cut rain totals down quite a bit, I would think.

Long way to go, but it looks like to me that the biggest flooding threat areas are going to be more focused in central and eastern SC.  Latest RGEM below.  The sfc maps on the RGEM are pretty wild.  Sfc low depiction retrogrades inland off the SC coast with the heaviest rains pivoting just to its north - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015100306&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=194.44444959546325

 

RGEMSat.png
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I think it will fill pretty quick IMHO.

HRRR seems to weaken the band a bit through 2pm before restrengthening it a bit thereafter, though it's definitely showing the heavier precip further south into NE GA and the southern upstate through Columbia. I'm over 3.5" here since Thursday morning - if HRRR is right, I'll hit 5" or so by tonight. (edit to fix the day)

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mcd0546.gif

"THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD PIVOTING OF THE

DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/RAINFALL AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE UPSTATE
AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALSO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
VERY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING FORECAST BY THE MODELS"

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=546&yr=2015

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This is taking on all the hallmarks of the heaviest rain and flooding skipping over the upstate.  Lot's of rain holes all over during the time  we are supposed to be raking in the rain.  Looks like the band that has set up right now is going to pivot away.  Shouldn't be a huge surprise though because the upstate never gets in on the historic storms.

 

hrrr_t_precip_nc_16.png

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This is taking on all the hallmarks of the heaviest rain and flooding skipping over the upstate.  Lot's of rain holes all over during the time  we are supposed to be raking in the rain.  Looks like the band that has set up right now is going to pivot away.  Shouldn't be a huge surprise though because the upstate never gets in on the historic storms.

 

 

NAM agrees on shifting the heaviest stuff south and west of the Upstate. We get another heavy band this afternoon, but it might just be light rain by the time the Clemson game comes on.

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HRRR seems to weaken the band a bit through 2pm before restrengthening it a bit thereafter, though it's definitely showing the heavier precip further south into NE GA and the southern upstate through Columbia. I'm over 3.5" here since Thursday morning - if HRRR is right, I'll hit 5" or so by tonight. (edit to fix the day)

 

RAP does the same.  Really brings it back farther into Georgia than I had thought it would.

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