strongwxnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I think that area and an area from Bat Cave up the eastern escarpment through Marion and up to North Cove will get crushed. Catawba River in many places approaching bankful in a hurry. I concur with this. Lake lure and bat cave flooded back in 96... Really hope that does not happen again.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Marshall Shepherd out of UGA / TWC is calling this plume a "Atmospheric River". I think it's going to be flowing right up the Savannah river. The RAP model from 12 through 18 hours almost looks like a carbon copy. South Carolina is going to need Jon boats in excess tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Been about 5 hours of moderate rain. Looks to be ending in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yep. The show is just about over here in Raleigh. Just a nice rainy fall day-nothing out of the ordinary by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Im in CAE. When can we expect the torrential rains to begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 If you guys subscribe to Robert he has a great write up tonight about what to expect. There is a lot more coming tomorrow and Sunday. Really detailed write up. But for visual purposes he thinks the NWS map is very close to how he envisioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yep. We had 12 total from this last weekend but with the drought we were in at the time, nothing major really happened. I noticed after the inch of rain we got today Crooked Creek has already reached its bank in several places. Should be an interesting weekend.Just watched a live feed from Brad Panovich. He said he is really concerned with the orographic lift in the mountains tonight and into tomorrow. Things are going to get dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Amazing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yep. The show is just about over here in Raleigh. Just a nice rainy fall day-nothing out of the ordinary by any means. My basement is very happy the amounts have not been prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Latest HRRR through midnight... You can't make this stuff up, rain holed... Well, that map was a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Accidentally posted this in the obs thread... whoops. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0544NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...CENT/S NORTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 030209Z - 030809Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" LIKELYWITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.DISCUSSION...DEEP STRATOSPHERIC FOLD SEEN WELL IN STANDARD WV ASWELL AS RGB AIR MASS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OFMEXICO... ALLOW EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG 100-110 KTJET...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HUGS THE SOUTH CAROLINACOASTLINE THROUGH CAPE FEAR INTO THE OUTER BANKS OFNC...BROAD/DEEP LOW LEVEL WITH AN EXTREME MOISTURE TONGUE PULLEDFROM THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE POOLED AROUND2.4-2.5" WITHIN TPW ANALYSIS POINTED UPP THE FRONT TOWARD KCHS.SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL AS AWEAK CONVERGENCE TROF INTERSECTING THE FRONT SE OF HILTON HEADISLAND. THIS NOW FOCUSES THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION THATWILL DRIFT ASHORE OVER CENTRAL SC COAST SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLYWEST...AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND THE BASE. CONVECTIONHAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR INTERMITTENT 3-4"/HR RATES SEEN NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH/CALABASH AREA OVER THELAST 6HRS...WITH 24HR TOTALS IN THE 10- 14" SEEN IN MESONET ANDPERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS/CWOP. THIS REMAINS A POTENTIAL SCENARIOOVER THE NEXT 6-12HRS PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST AND NEAR THE TRIPLEPOINT OF THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITIES BECOME EXHAUSTED BUT BROADSCALEASCENT REMAINS TO SUPPORT BROAD SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH RATES OF1.0-1.5"/HR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SC/S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. STRENGTHENING AND BACKING 7H FLOW AND EASTERLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR FASTER WESTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINETOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NC APPALACHIANS. THE RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE AXIS WELL HANDLED FROMKCHS TO KCLT INCLUDING 6HR TOTALS OF 4-6" THOUGH APPEARS TO OVERDO THE AMOUNTS ACROSS NC. THE NSSL WRF ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AGOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAY UNDER DO THEAMOUNTS AT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AXIS IN NC. AT THIS TIME...SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS URBANCENTERS NEAR/AROUND CHARLESTON SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS -60TO -70C COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE VICINITY WITH A LOOK OFTRAINING TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Kinda thought we were done but we are under a really heavy band of showers goingto pick up another inch or two on top of the 5" we have had today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wyff4 anchor just said we were getting rain from hurricane. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 60hr max of 30.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Radar looking like the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 That's a nice heavy embedded line coming through the Sandhills on the charlotte tv chanel dual pole radar loop the met just showed. Wbtv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wow, massive area of bright banding with some isolated bands of very bright banding and the way the precip band is set up, you could easily be in the bright banding for several hours which means rain totals adds up VERY quickly. You don't see that too often. What a unique situation for the SE. This reminds me of the Pineapple Express on the west coast. A linear feed of moisture that aims on one location for several days, except this is a lot heavier and more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wyff4 anchor just said we were getting rain from hurricane. SmhAnd only 5-9" inches, lol! With isolated " double digit" totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wyff4 anchor just said we were getting rain from hurricane. Smh The moisture feed is coming from the hurricane technically. You can see how it's flowing in from the hurricane on the water vapor map. The ULL spinning over Alabama is redirecting the moisture feeds into NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 And only 5-9" inches, lol! With isolated " double digit" totals It was 14 at the start of the event. Cutting big time I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Last frames of radar and sattelite right now ( time sensitive) you can see the moisture plume starting to take on the SE to NW and or ESE to WNW orientation , that most models, especially short range models, have been showing!! Looks ominous and it's basically now cast time! Just heard of some FF warnings just to E of CLT ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 NWS Charleston Issues Flash Flood Warning for Charleston, Berkeley Counties: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 515 AM EDT * AT 1116 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN CONTINUOUSLY MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY...AND HEAVY RAIN WAS EXPANDING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT...GOOSE CREEK... HANAHAN...MONCKS CORNER...MCCLELLANVILLE AND I-26/I-526 INTERCHANGE.BY 5 AM...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTEDIN THE WARNED AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESEEXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It was 14 at the start of the event. Cutting big time I guessGoing conservative is always the safest route, I guess, but one day it's going to bite them in the buttocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I'm afraid this only the first of several area wide flood events we will expierence on this board between now and next april. No 6 to 12 inch events. But we'll settle I to a pattern of moisture laden events that occur every 4 to 5 days. They are in and out but the ground looses it's ability to soak up the water at the rate it does now as we progress through winter early spring. This is all courtesy of El nino and a stj that will be very repetitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It was 14 at the start of the event. Cutting big time I guess Suits me perfectly well, I want no part of that much rain. Especially since I currently have damaged siding and rain is my enemy For the record, it is hard to believe it has been 1000 years since TS Jerry, seems like just 20. That was the last thousand year storm, with 15 inches at GSP. Oh How time flies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Latest RGEM and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 This forecast map for tomorrow still shows upper air conduit of moisture from the hurricane and this goes on for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like joaquin is feeling the pull from the trough and also the Atlantic side, more and more of the storm is getting incorporated into the trough and the storm itself is looking elongated, this flooding situation is going to be bad. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 First image shows upper low closed contour dug way south on Florida panhandle with vort maxes in NE gulf. Second image shows upper level divergence - red shading over the Carolinas, aiding strong lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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