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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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I think that area and an area from Bat Cave up the eastern escarpment through Marion and up to North Cove will get crushed. Catawba River in many places approaching bankful in a hurry.

I concur with this. Lake lure and bat cave flooded back in 96... Really hope that does not happen again..

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Marshall Shepherd out of UGA / TWC is calling this plume a "Atmospheric River".  I think it's going to be flowing right up the Savannah river.

 

The RAP model from 12 through 18 hours almost looks like a carbon copy.  South Carolina is going to need Jon boats in excess tomorrow.

 

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If you guys subscribe to Robert he has a great write up tonight about what to expect.  There is a lot more coming tomorrow and Sunday.  Really detailed write up.  

 

But for visual purposes he thinks the NWS map is very close to how he envisioned it.

 

 

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Yep. We had 12 total from this last weekend but with the drought we were in at the time, nothing major really happened. I noticed after the inch of rain we got today Crooked Creek has already reached its bank in several places. Should be an interesting weekend.

Just watched a live feed from Brad Panovich. He said he is really concerned with the orographic lift in the mountains tonight and into tomorrow. Things are going to get dicey.
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Accidentally posted this in the obs thread... whoops.

 

mcd0544.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0544NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...CENT/S NORTH CAROLINA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 030209Z - 030809Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" LIKELYWITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.DISCUSSION...DEEP STRATOSPHERIC FOLD SEEN WELL IN STANDARD WV ASWELL AS RGB AIR MASS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OFMEXICO... ALLOW EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG 100-110 KTJET...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA.  SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HUGS THE SOUTH CAROLINACOASTLINE THROUGH CAPE FEAR INTO THE OUTER BANKS OFNC...BROAD/DEEP LOW LEVEL WITH AN EXTREME MOISTURE TONGUE PULLEDFROM THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE POOLED AROUND2.4-2.5" WITHIN TPW ANALYSIS POINTED UPP THE FRONT TOWARD KCHS.SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL AS AWEAK CONVERGENCE TROF INTERSECTING THE FRONT SE OF HILTON HEADISLAND.  THIS NOW FOCUSES THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION THATWILL DRIFT ASHORE OVER CENTRAL SC COAST SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLYWEST...AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND THE BASE.  CONVECTIONHAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR INTERMITTENT 3-4"/HR RATES SEEN NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH/CALABASH AREA OVER THELAST 6HRS...WITH 24HR TOTALS IN THE 10- 14" SEEN IN MESONET ANDPERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS/CWOP.  THIS REMAINS A POTENTIAL SCENARIOOVER THE NEXT 6-12HRS PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST AND NEAR THE TRIPLEPOINT OF THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITIES BECOME EXHAUSTED BUT BROADSCALEASCENT REMAINS TO SUPPORT BROAD SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH RATES OF1.0-1.5"/HR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SC/S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. STRENGTHENING AND BACKING 7H FLOW AND EASTERLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR FASTER WESTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINETOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NC APPALACHIANS.  THE RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE AXIS WELL HANDLED FROMKCHS TO KCLT INCLUDING 6HR TOTALS OF 4-6" THOUGH APPEARS TO OVERDO THE AMOUNTS ACROSS NC.  THE NSSL WRF ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AGOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAY UNDER DO THEAMOUNTS AT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AXIS IN NC. AT THIS TIME...SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS URBANCENTERS NEAR/AROUND CHARLESTON SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS -60TO -70C COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE VICINITY WITH A LOOK OFTRAINING TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR.  
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Wow, massive area of bright banding with some isolated bands of very bright banding and the way the precip band is set up, you could easily be in the bright banding for several hours which means rain totals adds up VERY quickly. You don't see that too often. What a unique situation for the SE. This reminds me of the Pineapple Express on the west coast. A linear feed of moisture that aims on one location for several days, except this is a lot heavier and more intense.

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Last frames of radar and sattelite right now ( time sensitive) you can see the moisture plume starting to take on the SE to NW and or ESE to WNW orientation , that most models, especially short range models, have been showing!! Looks ominous and it's basically now cast time! Just heard of some FF warnings just to E of CLT !

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NWS Charleston Issues Flash Flood Warning for Charleston, Berkeley Counties:

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
  CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
  BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 AM EDT

 

* AT 1116 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  TORRENTIAL RAIN CONTINUOUSLY MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO
  THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN
  CHARLESTON COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY...AND HEAVY
  RAIN WAS EXPANDING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. FLASH FLOODING IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT...GOOSE CREEK...
  HANAHAN...MONCKS CORNER...MCCLELLANVILLE AND I-26/I-526
  INTERCHANGE.

BY 5 AM...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING.

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I'm afraid this only the first of several area wide flood events we will expierence on this board between now and next april. No 6 to 12 inch events. But we'll settle I to a pattern of moisture laden events that occur every 4 to 5 days. They are in and out but the ground looses it's ability to soak up the water at the rate it does now as we progress through winter early spring. This is all courtesy of El nino and a stj that will be very repetitive.

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It was 14 at the start of the event. Cutting big time I guess

Suits me perfectly well, I want no part of that much rain. Especially since I currently have damaged siding and rain is my enemy :( For the record, it is hard to believe it has been 1000 years since TS Jerry, seems like just 20. That was the last thousand year storm, with 15 inches at GSP. Oh How time flies!

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