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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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We will see but the models usually back off totals to the north because they create maxiums farther south . I think across Va and NC don't let your guard down, maybe having convective feedback issues .

Well look who's back! welcome back kotter.............. I think 1-2 inches max here. Forecast fail again.  SW of us, up next to the mountains will get the most water..... 

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This panel is roughly around 10AM tomorrow morning.  You can see the plume of moisture stretched back to Joaquin.  Pretty amazing stuff.  I did not post all the panels but the rain really starts to infiltrate GA and pour it on SC at about 2AM tomorrow morning.

post-1314-0-58558100-1443818203_thumb.pn

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You forgot the adult beverages.  :)

I've got a bottle of wine for each day and Jose always likes to make an appearance during special events  :wub:

 

Central SC is getting NAM'd at the moment, lots more to come too...through 10pm tomorrow night.

:D   :lol:   

 

I'm waiting patiently for the rainstorm to begin  ;)  

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mcd0542.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0542NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD354 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...E SOUTH CAROLINA...S/CENT NORTH CAROLINA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 021953Z - 030153Z SUMMARY...DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH WITH INCREASED RAINFALLEFFICIENCY OVER 2.5"/HR LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERAREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER ONSHORE RAINS.DISCUSSION...ENCROACHMENT OF THE FRONT ZONE ALONG THE NE SC AND SNC COASTAL ZONE DUE TO A WEAK HIGHLY ELONGATED/SHEARED SURFACEWAVE THAT HAS FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MST CONVERGENCE.  STRONGMERIDIONAL JET ALOFT IS SHIFTING WEST A BIT WITH AN EXITING JETSTREAK TOWARD VA...ALLOWING FOR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCETO SUPPORT THIS LOW AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH SEEN IN VISIBLEAND IR.  IR TOPS ARE COOLING AND EXPANDING IN A WEDGE WITHSCATTERED -65 TO -70C COOLING TOPS.  ALLOWING FOR INCREASEDRAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RATES IN EXCESS OF2.5"/HR.  GIVEN THE AREA/PARTICULARLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVEBEEN RECEIVING PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINS THAT HAVE ALLOWED FORLOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS TO SWELL POTENTIALLY COMPOUNDED BY INCREASEDCOASTAL FLOODING NOT ALLOWING WATERS TO DRAIN.   SO AT THIS POINTTHESE HIGHER RATES ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASHFLOODING/INUNDATION CONCERNS.   STRONG 30-40 KT PERPENDICULAR ONSHORE FLOW LIFTING OVER THEBOUNDARY BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE STEERING FLOWFOR THE DEEPER CELLS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVEINITIATION POINT NEAR THE COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE AND CELL MOTIONSDUE NORTH COULD FAVOR A TRAINING PROFILE WITH A SLOW ADVANCEMENTEASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORT THROUGH MUCH OF THEHI-RES CAMS BUT PARTICULARLY THE 12Z NSSL-WRF...RECENT HRRR ANDESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS AND 12Z NMMB RUNS.    FURTHER NORTH...INTO NORTH CAROLINA...WITH REDUCING LOW LEVELSUPPORT AND REDUCED INSTABILITIES...HIGH RAIN RATES WILL GENERALLYREDUCE TO MODERATE .5-1"/HR STRATIFORM RATES...THOUGH LIKELY OVERA BROADER W-E ZONE.  AGAIN...PROLONGED INUNDATION FLOODING WILL BETHE PROBLEM HERE AS WELL OVER THE LONGER DURATION. 
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Yup, I thought it might slide just a little west, but it's built far enough east that we may get an inch out of it.

Yeah while just to the west and south of there, from Fayetteville and Wilmington up towards the triad is likely to get 2-3 out of this band if not more. This band means business and now it looks like things are getting going on the SC coast and headed NW. That rain should be up in my area in a few hours. 

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The probl I have with that is this is not winter time forecasting where there is dry cold air coming in from the north. All up and down the mountain chain will see heavy rains. There will be an area of maxium rainfall but with 12-18 inches 100 miles or less from us no way . If NC/Sc line gets 6 inches then yes I can see 1-2 inches of rain

Well look who's back! welcome back kotter.............. I think 1-2 inches max here. Forecast fail again. SW of us, up next to the mountains will get the most water.....

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Below is the AFD from Charleston, SC.  A very good read.  Discusses latest model tendencies and tornado possibilities.  Read the whole thing for nuggets of info.  I bold-faced areas of discussion that I thought were important regarding highest QPF placement and tornado threat.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
454 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...RECORD RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS LIFTING INLAND ON
SUNDAY...THEN MOVING AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTH TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT
ALONG A STALLED FRONT AS AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL/GA AND THE NORTHERN FL PANHANDLE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST SC AND TOWARD SOUTHEAST GA AS
STRONG UPPER FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET PROVIDE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED ALONG THE COASTAL WARM FRONT AND LIKELY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL SHIFT INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND INTENSITY...GENERALLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS COULD ROTATE ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SC COAST LATE AS THE COASTAL WARM
FRONT SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...WEAK TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE ENHANCED
HELICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOLKS ARE URGED TO KEEP THEIR WEATHER
RADIOS AT THE READY TO HEAR POSSIBLE WARNINGS SINCE ANY TORNADOES
WOULD BE HARD TO SEE GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LOWS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO MID TO
UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST CONSENSUS FORECAST IS STILL
SHOWING A HIGH POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWFA. WHAT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IS ACTUALLY
WHERE THE BAND OR BANDS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WILL SET
UP...ALIGNED IN AN EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ORIENTATION. OUR LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
DISTRICT INTO PERHAPS PARTS OF BEAUFORT...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE
COUNTIES. BUT THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF
QPF RANGING FROM 8-10 INCHES NORTH AND CENTRAL DOWN TO 1 INCH OR
LESS FAR SOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH WILL OCCUR.


A DYNAMIC AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED OFF MID AND UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER IN FAR SW GA AS IT ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED NOT FAR OFF
THE SE COAST WHERE WE FIND A COASTAL WARM FRONT STUCK BETWEEN THE
GULF STREAM AND THE CONTINENTAL SHELF. WHILE THE ONGOING RAINS MAY
ACT TO RE-ENFORCE THE ONGOING WEDGE...THIS IS COUNTER-BALANCED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE GA/SC COASTS. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PIVOT
TOWARD OR ONSHORE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES WILL BE DRAWN NORTH IN A
DEEP AND RICH TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE THAT HAS ITS ORIGINS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLANTIC. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATOP AN EAST-SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DOWNSTAIRS GENERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL...WHILE IT/S BECOME APPARENT THAT OUR RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...UPPER DIFLUENCE AND STRONG PVA WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE COMBINE WITH A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET TO
PRODUCE 100 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.

IF THE EXTREME RAINFALL IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS ALSO THE LOW END
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
SWING ONSHORE. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL RESTRICT SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY...THERE IS MODEST 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS
HIGH AS 200 M2/SEC2. FOR NOW THE BEST RISK OF ANY LOW-TOPPED
TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-95...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC
. FOR ALL SECTIONS GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL WARM
FRONT CAN PENETRATE...WITH A LARGE EAST-WEST GRADIENT TO OCCUR.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC MONDAY.
THE WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STUCK UNDERNEATH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OR NEAR SUNDAY BEFORE IT TOO STARTS TO SLIP INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
RAINS. THEN ON MONDAY THE INLAND WEDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
SURFACE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS TO PIVOT BACK IN
FROM THE NW. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE CATEGORICAL POPS FAR NORTH
SUNDAY...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL DECREASE INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY
RANGE...THEN TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...BACK
UP TO THE CHANCE RANGE ALL SECTIONS MONDAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR FROM NORMAL.


.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND FOR
THE GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME
DEVIATION IN THE PLACEMENT OF EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE CWFA. BUT FOR THE LATEST FORECAST WE
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE QPF AS DEPICTED BY WPC...BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND UTILIZING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM OUR
OFFICE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO TO NOT FAR FROM THE
BEAUFORT AREA...THEN INLAND TO MONCKS CORNER...WALTERBORO AND PARTS
OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON COUNTIES. OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 8-12 INCHES IN SC...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR.

FARTHER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN INCH ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO 3-6
INCHES NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AGAIN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
MAIN AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

DESPITE THIS FORECAST...KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION OF
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETS UP COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT QPF.

COMPLICATING THE FLOODING SCENARIO IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
ELEVATED VERY HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST NEAR HIGH TIDE...IT WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING AND RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. THE LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOWS
TIDES REACHING OVER 8 FT WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...A VERY
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT WOULD ENSUE. WE CAN NOT STRESS ENOUGH
THAT ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO.

FINALLY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER
THE COMING DAYS ONCE THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED. THE
LATEST SET OF METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
/MMERF/...SHOW A NUMBER OF RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

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Yeah while just to the west and south of there, from Fayetteville and Wilmington up towards the triad is likely to get 2-3 out of this band if not more. This band means business and now it looks like things are getting going on the SC coast and headed NW. That rain should be up in my area in a few hours.

Yeah, it's pouring here now. We may get an inch or so before it moves out.

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Is it just me or are the rainfall predictions getting lower for my area. I smell a bust. I doubt I will see 1/2".

 

You do realize that none of the excessive rainfall that has been shown on any forecast maps or models has been forecast over Carroll county Georgia, right?  You are west of Atlanta, right?  :axe:  "Bust" for your area would probably only apply if you received about 6 inches of snow from this.

 

- Buck

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You do realize that none of the excessive rainfall that has been shown on any forecast maps or models has been forecast over Carroll county Georgia, right? You are west of Atlanta, right? :axe: "Bust" for your area would probably only apply if you received about 6 inches of snow from this.

- Buck

yeah I know, but most models I saw were showing 1-2 inches. Now it looks like basically nothing. I won't complain as long as I get sunshine this weekend.
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What about tornado's? No one is being that up but this seems like we could have a few

Morehead mentioned this in their AFD...

COASTAL NC REMAINSIN MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL SEFLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVINGTOWARDS THE COAST FOR AN ISOLATED RISK OF TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONGTHE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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Getting hit hard here in Raleigh now. Looks like we're in a training situation for the next several hours. THi sis the main band setting up that will shift west and eventually align WNW to ESE over south carolina tomorrow. That's where the crazy rain will fall (10-15 inches). Thinking raleigh get's around 2 to 4 additional inches tonight. I've had around 1 inch today.

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