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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Most dire 36 hr local forecast I have ever seen from TWC!!! This is the short, short version:

Tonight- rain likely! 1-3 inches of rain possible! Localized flooding possible!

Saturday - heavy rain! 3-5" of rain expected. Significant flooding expected!!

Saturday Night- heavy rain early, 3-5" rain expected! Significant flooding expected!

We are also under a wind advisory tomorrow through Sunday and could see gusts to 40MPH!

This just got real! :(

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Most dire 36 hr local forecast I have ever seen from TWC!!! This is the short, short version:

Tonight- rain likely! 1-3 inches of rain possible! Localized flooding possible!

Saturday - heavy rain! 3-5" of rain expected. Significant flooding expected!!

Saturday Night- heavy rain early, 3-5" rain expected! Significant flooding expected!

We are also under a wind advisory tomorrow through Sunday and could see gusts to 40MPH!

This just got real! :(

I've never seen the wording "significant flooding expected" in any forecast for this area!

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Most dire 36 hr local forecast I have ever seen from TWC!!! This is the short, short version:

Tonight- rain likely! 1-3 inches of rain possible! Localized flooding possible!

Saturday - heavy rain! 3-5" of rain expected. Significant flooding expected!!

Saturday Night- heavy rain early, 3-5" rain expected! Significant flooding expected!

We are also under a wind advisory tomorrow through Sunday and could see gusts to 40MPH!

This just got real! :(

 

I think Raleigh NWS is struggling.  I was supposed to get 1 to 2" today.  I've gotten 0.2"  Now the forecast says heavy rain but look at the amounts.

 

This Afternoon
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 56. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
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If you look at sattelite right now, you can see clouds and moisture being pulled torwards SC, about to start the firehose! It's an awesome look! If someone could post it, that would be amazeballs ! The sattelite loop

 

You can also see the swirl to the NE of Joaquin start to interact with him.

 

bMgthtS.png

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I've never seen the wording "significant flooding expected" in any forecast for this area!

Might be cool to be at falls park bridge on Sunday!? It was impressive after a two day, 4" rainfall, can't imagine what it could look like!? I live near the reedy on W Georgia rd, if you know that area? I feel pretty safe, the river would probably have to rise 30ft to flood out neighborhood !
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RAH extended the wind advisory.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030830-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...
CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...
SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35
MPH.

* IMPACTS...FALLING TREES AND TREE LIMBS... AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THE WET GROUND WILL CAUSE
SOME TREES... TREE LIMBS... AND POWER LINES TO FALL. FALLING
TREES AND TREE LIMBS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH WINDS RESULT IN NUMEROUS
INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES EACH YEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
IF OUTSIDE...SEEK STURDY SHELTER INDOORS...AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

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I think Raleigh NWS is struggling.  I was supposed to get 1 to 2" today.  I've gotten 0.2"  Now the forecast says heavy rain but look at the amounts.

 

This Afternoon
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 56. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

 

The dry air coming in from the NE near Joaquin could be shutting off some of the moisture flow northward.

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I think Raleigh NWS is struggling.  I was supposed to get 1 to 2" today.  I've gotten 0.2"  Now the forecast says heavy rain but look at the amounts.

 

This Afternoon
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 56. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

 

LOL...yeah, typo, it should say very light non impactful misting today, partly could through the weekend.

 

The showers coming in over the NC/SC border should move NW of here and then the heavy bands should develop in western NC and SC over night, not 10"+ heavy though.

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Well this is a BIG surprise, after getting little rain last 2 days (which was suppose to have been very rainy) Just like a winter storm. LET DOWN! lol. Over the last few days I've went from 10-29 inches to maybe 1-2 now. lol again!

 

We have lowered the rainfall totals, but the flooding threat still remains.

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Might be cool to be at falls park bridge on Sunday!? It was impressive after a two day, 4" rainfall, can't imagine what it could look like!? I live near the reedy on W Georgia rd, if you know that area? I feel pretty safe, the river would probably have to rise 30ft to flood out neighborhood !

You must be over near that Greenville tech campus. If so I think you'd be ok. I could see the Reedy flooding downtown some as it had in the past though.

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Brad P. had a great disco this morning about how things would unfold today. The fire hose wont start making its way inland until Joaquin begins the trek North. The north movement allows the ULL to dig further south which will then reconfigure the moisture transport more SE to NW which then causes the hose to point more toward the central and western parts of SC and NC. People need to relax. We have to wait until Joaquin starts to move out of the way which it is starting to. 

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LOL...yeah, typo, it should say very light non impactful misting today, partly could through the weekend.

The showers coming in over the NC/SC border should move NW of here and then the heavy bands should develop in western NC and SC over night, not 10"+ heavy though.

We should get clipped with that, but Cumberland Co. up through Randolph should be in the bullseye.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DID NOT MAKE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I DID RAISE
POPS JUST A BIT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE AS MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE AL/FL BORDER AND IS
EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
THIS UPPER LOW IS SPINNING THE MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP MAINLY OVER SC
WITH A DIRECT CONNECTION TO HURRICANE JOAQUIN.

 

THIS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO SC BUT THIS PLUME DOES CREEP INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GA AS WELL.
PWS GET ABOVE 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THAT AREA
BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND STAY ABOVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

 

STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS ARE SHOWING AN ESTIMATED 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FROM NOW TO MONDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BUT WITH THE
WAY THINGS ARE PROGRESSING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY.

 

THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS
PLUME SETS UP TONIGHT. IF I`S EAST OF WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY
THINKING...THEN EASTERN GA WILL NOT SEE MUCH. IF ITS SETS UP JUST 50
MILES WEST OF WHERE WE ARE THINKING...EASTERN GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
ATL AREA WILL HAVE MORE TO DEAL WITH THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY THINKING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS VERY CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING AS WE START TO
SEE HOW THINGS ARE PROGRESSING. ONE OF THE GOOD THINGS WITH THIS IS
WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM SO
KEEPING THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 00Z SAT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR LOW AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

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It's the same general hurricane/winter storm/tornado outbreak plan every family should have, in case the need to evacuate or being "cut off" for a few days. I've prepared the best I can to cover my bases. Firewood,charcoal,candles,batteries,vehicles filled up, important things in protective cases and readily accessible, route out in gps, ice, water, food, drinks, etc.     :D

 

:hug: Xenia, AZ flooding in Tucson,Blizzards, Hugo, earthquakes....this is one more to check off   :lol:

You forgot the adult beverages.  :)

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RAH says "Go West or South"...

WE STILL EXPECT A MORE SOLID AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... SUPPORTED BY CONTINUED VIGOROUS MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF HIGHER PW PIVOTING WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES... HIGHEST WEST HALF... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ON TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAVE HELD IN THE RANGE OF 10-16 KTS SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... LARGELY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SUFFICIENT TO DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. WE'LL REMAIN IN A TIGHT MSLP PATTERN BETWEEN THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT... AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS CONFIGURATION... HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT IF A BIT STRONGER SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SC TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST...THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY INCREASE THE MSLP GRADIENT... RESULTING IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY MOVE A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY'S TEMPS... TO LOWS FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. SAT/SAT NIGHT: WHILE THE RISK OF A FEW DOWNED TREES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT... THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST FORCING FEATURES (INCLUDING UPPER DIVERGENCE) AND MOISTURE (INCLUDING PW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT) SHIFTING TO OUR WEST AND SW BY SAT MORNING... LEADING TO A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN QPF IN ALL BUT THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRENDS OF LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOLLOW THIS PATTERN AS WELL. THUS... HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO 50-70% OVER ALL BUT THE SW CWA... WHERE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED BENEATH STILL-POTENT LIFT AND MOISTURE. ALSO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OVERALL AMOUNTS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING TO ACCOMPANY THE FALLING PW VALUES. AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE EAST.
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Getting final preps complete.  Looks like the Central Midlands of SC have model consensus of a historic flood happening very soon.  You guys stay safe!

 

Around here, we have people who still don't understand things will be bad even without a landfall.

 

Guess they'll have to learn the hard way.

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If you look at sattelite right now, you can see clouds and moisture being pulled torwards SC off of Joaquin about to start the firehose! It's an awesome look! If someone could post it, that would be amazeballs ! The sattelite loop

Its something seeing words like dangerous and fatal in the weather discussions. Reminds me of the infamous afd the day before Katrina struck the Gulf Coast.

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My sister lives in boiling Springs, SC and got some impressive pictures from flooding. Apparently a Dodge dealership lost tons of cars to flooding or mudslides. Let me see if I can copy them and upload them...

I had a friend telling me about this. Apparently the mud was almost up to the windows on some cars.

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