downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 My lake I am growing in my backyard its been a long time since I have seen it like this...they are letting school out early so I have to go get him a lot of low lying areas along the way should be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Latest HRRR through midnight... You can't make this stuff up, rain holed... Par for the course! And you know that will be right. Raining here in Greenville, SC again. Is the Atlantic doing the stealing, instead of the Florida coast? Can't remember the last time I saw that. I'm just guessing and am probably wrong. But the fact that models had precipitation falling most of the day, and now it's not, means something isn't acting like they thought. Looking at the radar, there's no obvious convection robbing going on, but it may be happening offshore, out of the radar's view. Or it may be something else entirely. Maybe somebody else can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Moisture robbing convection FTW? I mentioned this yesterday. RAH hinted at this killing our rain, LOL A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes, models possibly are increasing QPF for us, but the radar right now is really pathetic. So much for all this moisture influx...this is a below average for even a regular rain event much less for potential flooding.Somebody between you and I , won't be saying that by tomorrow ! Somebody will be getting firehosed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RAH hinted at this killing our rain, LOL A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS Well, there you go. If it's not convection, it's subsidence. If it's not subsidence, it's dry slot. If it's not dry slot, it's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It is about time to Nowcast Ah, that phrase brings back so many memories of fail. Yes, models possibly are increasing QPF for us, but the radar right now is really pathetic. So much for all this moisture influx...this is a below average for even a regular rain event much less for potential flooding. Ah, the reason why that phrase brings back so many memories of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm Sorry, but I've got to see a much wetter radar, before I believe any of those totals being thrown out by models.... Yesterday and today was suppose to have been rainy? I got 0.57 last night. And nothing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Brick, What would you do if that was a forecast for a winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Somebody between you and I , won't be saying that by tomorrow ! Somebody will be getting firehosed! I kept reading all this hype about the in-flux of moisture from multiple feeds and then you look at the radar today....I think I will take the under on 10" QPF being the max anywhere in NC/SC. In fact 6-8" is probably max worst case and that will be very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RAH hinted at this killing our rain, LOL A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS So basically your saying instead of getting all this rain in western NC we are going to get a dud of a storm meaning 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Solid rain event here in pitt county. Since Wednesday I had 7 inches as of this morning and I had to go get my stepson from school and will check the guage again when i drop him off at home. I'm expecting around a 8-9 inch total so far at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, there you go. If it's not convection, it's subsidence. If it's not subsidence, it's dry slot. If it's not dry slot, it's..... It's we suck, LOL. If this was the MA or NE they would be getting 15" of rain, we will be around 1" at best, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So basically your saying instead of getting all this rain in western NC we are going to get a dud of a storm meaning 1-2 inches? Not for western NC, yours comes tomorrow-Sunday. Central NC was supposed to be getting there 2-4" today and it's looking like 1" or so. The eastern part of NC should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sucks for us need this axis to shifts its like a water hose pointed right at us, I have gotten 1.5" since 9:30 and that's most likely low ball since the wind keeps it going sideways.... Looks like those of us to your east are getting a little bit of a break. Is there some dry air coming in from our east or is it another anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not for western NC, yours comes tomorrow-Sunday. Central NC was supposed to be getting there 2-4" today and it's looking like 1" or so. The eastern part of NC should do well. So if you don't mind me asking how much we talking about Rain total wise for western NC? Say around Hickory NC in the Foothills and points west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I kept reading all this hype about the in-flux of moisture from multiple feeds and then you look at the radar today....I think I will take the under on 10" QPF being the max anywhere in NC/SC. In fact 6-8" is probably max worst case and that will be very localized.. WNC and upstate of SC will raise you on that bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Latest HRRR through midnight... You can't make this stuff up, rain holed... Hey, I'm in that circle too! Speaking of rain, #9 ND vs #12 Clemson on the other hand... 6"+ rain falling ON Saturday, depending on the model and forecasts could get 10"+ in Clemson, SC....kickoff is 8pm, sustained winds 15-20mph with gusts up to 40mph (4km NAM, nws has 25 mph gusts), should be fun...A lot of the models have the rain pounding during the 2nd half, some models are dry. It will be amazing if they play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 . WNC and upstate of SC will raise you on that bet How much you think Rain Total wise once its all over with and done for McDowell and Burke County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How much you think Rain Total wise once its all over with and done for McDowell and Burke County? Judging by the 12z data coming in I'd say 8-10 is a safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So if you don't mind me asking how much we talking about Rain total wise for western NC? Say around Hickory NC in the Foothills and points west? My favorite model in this range is the RGEM and this is what it's most recent run spit out. Looks overdone by alot for my locale though...I would think your area would get hit really hard (6-10") but I think I have been watching to many models, so that's probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hey, I'm in that circle too! Speaking of rain, #9 ND vs #12 Clemson on the other hand... 6"+ rain falling ON Saturday, depending on the model and forecasts could get 10"+ in Clemson, SC....kickoff is 8pm, sustained winds 15-20mph with gusts up to 40mph (4km NAM, nws has 25 mph gusts), should be fun...A lot of the models have the rain pounding during the 2nd half, some models are dry. It will be amazing if they play. Clemson said their field drainage is great and they don't expect any problems. I could not imagine watching a game in those conditions. I bet it will be chilly as well. Wet, cold, and windy. No thanks for ANY football game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pack, why don't you post the CMC totals, when you get a sec, please. The radar is filling in again to the south, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Iv'e finally made peace that this wont make landfall. the rain that the HRRR is showing is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Clemson said their field drainage is great and they don't expect any problems. I could not imagine watching a game in those conditions. I bet it will be chilly as well. Wet, cold, and windy. No thanks for ANY football game Yeah I believe it will still be a playable pitch but it will have tons of moisture, especially if they get under some heavy stagnant bands for 2 straight hours, unless they have a huge vacuum under the field it won't keep up. I agree, I don't expect to see many fans if the second half is played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 HRRR is in MM, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pack, why don't you post the CMC totals, when you get a sec, please. The radar is filling in again to the south, finally. LOL, you saw that....it says we get 7-10" QPF by tonight. The CMC and 12km NAM are so useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro finally got a clue today for Central NC, shows around 1" through Sat morning. Weekend looks rain free too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 LOL, you saw that....it says we get 7-10" QPF by tonight. The CMC and 12km NAM are so useless. Haha...it has that death band coming back through the area too. If we go by my rule that ULLs usually end up weaker and farther north than forecast, then southern NC definitely should not let their guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Haha...it has that death band coming back through the area too. If we go by my rule that ULLs usually end up weaker and farther north than forecast, then southern NC definitely should not let their guard down. Euro has it weaker and a little north, we shall see what difference it makes, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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