wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rain Totals From The New GFS Run Looks Nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like a fairly robust hit for RDU too, but I haven't seen any QPF totals maps yet. Edit: wxduncan just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rain Totals From The New GFS Run Looks Nice: Nice for who? I like dry land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To my untrained eye... it looks as if the axis of moister over the last few runs of GFS are moving farther east and north>? Yeah, this is more likely to tick north than it is south, IMO. The models tend to dig these upper lows too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Someone should post the RGEM when it comes out. I don't have my winter model packages lined up yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Someone should post the RGEM when it comes out. I don't have my winter model packages lined up yet...lol RGem is out and man , stay safe bros, hope you get a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I know this mostly focused on the western part of nc and South Carolina but is there a way someone could link me a precious map for eastern NC? I'm clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I know this mostly focused on the western part of nc and South Carolina but is there a way someone could link me a precious map for eastern NC? I'm clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 US National Weather Service Wakefield VA 3 hrs · The weather story for today is water in the form of rainfall, flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and MAJOR coastal/tidal flooding. Two to four inches of rain is expected through this evening. Rain tapers off Saturday. Northeast winds of 35 to 45 mph at the coast will push tides to MAJOR flood levels with the afternoon and evening high tides. Along the coast and exposed areas on the Bay high waves will batter the shore resulting in significant beach erosion. River flooding along mot major rivers across central and southeast VA is also expected to develop later this weekend and linger into next week. Track all the latest forecasts and warnings at www.weather.gov/akq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RGem is out and man , stay safe bros, hope you get a break Precip to Sun morning on RGEM, but precip still going then as seen on bottom image [/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Thank you. Where could I get these maps? I'd do a google search but I wouldn't know where to start. I'm an uniformed weather enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Thank you. Where could I get these maps? I'd do a google search but I wouldn't know where to start. I'm an uniformed weather enthusiast. Here you go - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here you go - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Thank you so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The upper level low on strongwx's image has dropped down from the northwest. It will bottom out and crawl east to a position near Jacksonville by Sunday night. As it does this, the rains will work west from the coast, and pivot across the Carolinas. A lot of times these heavy precip bands can setup farther north than modeled, that's why I mentioned the southern half of NC earlier could be hit hard even though the models are targeting SC more at the current time. There's going to be a focused area of intense rains.Yeah just looking at the 12z Gfs the mountains get hammered tomorrow into Sunday. Very concerning here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 UK agrees, CLT to float away. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 UK agrees, CLT to float away. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif yeah but think about the massive lake effect snows they'll have in the pee dee this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like totals are coming back up for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 UK agrees, CLT to float away. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like totals are coming back up for NC. Are you happy about that? These storms normally shift north when the event hits, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Are you happy about that? These storms normally shift north when the event hits, correct? Yes and yes! I'm fine with 5-7" of rain. I still don't know if I believe all the 12"+ totals though. Just like models trend north, they trend toward less precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, we shouldn't lose much qpf due to dry air! No virga storms for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes and yes! I'm fine with 5-7" of rain. I still don't know if I believe all the 12"+ totals though. Just like models trend north, they trend toward less precip too. I thought it was done with the north move this last run. We will see. It is about time to Nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like totals are coming back up for NC. Yes, models possibly are increasing QPF for us, but the radar right now is really pathetic. So much for all this moisture influx...this is a below average for even a regular rain event much less for potential flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well I think its safe to say that most of NC is looking at 7-14inches of Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Moisture robbing convection FTW? I mentioned this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes, models possibly are increasing QPF for us, but the radar right now is really pathetic. So much for all this moisture influx...this is a below average for even a regular rain event much less for potential flooding. Sucks for us need this axis to shifts its like a water hose pointed right at us, I have gotten 1.5" since 9:30 and that's most likely low ball since the wind keeps it going sideways.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes and yes! I'm fine with 5-7" of rain. I still don't know if I believe all the 12"+ totals though. Just like models trend north, they trend toward less precip too. Latest HRRR through midnight... You can't make this stuff up, rain holed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Moisture robbing convection FTW? I mentioned this yesterday. Raining here in Greenville, SC again. Is the Atlantic doing the stealing, instead of the Florida coast? Can't remember the last time I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 More like sinks into a bottomless pit per the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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