StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM looks pretty excited about precip totals from Asheville to GSP to Columbia through 42. Laurens County is in the bullseye so far, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 had 1.1" overnight in ne ga. should be getting a lot more lol. we need a cad set up like this in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Models continue to suggest there is Going to be a really tight precip gradient in georgia or the western flank of wherever that band sets up . 30 or 40 miles could mean the difference between a foot and just a couple of inches or even that. 06z only shifted very slightly east vs the 0z run and it dropped totals here by 6 inches. It should be noted the 0z canadian, 0z uk, and 4km nam keep the band/extreme amounts in sc as well. A bit anxious to see the 12z guidance suite to see if that was a one off or a start of a trend which would keep the truly excessive amounts in sc. Although the new nam says otherwise and spreads it around a good bit more and to the west...but I have virtually zero faith in the nam at this point with it's silly and incredibly annoying run to run inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM looks pretty excited about precip totals from Asheville to GSP to Columbia through 42. Laurens County is in the bullseye so far, FWIW.Yep! That new map they just showed on TWC has the 12+ inch bullseye creeping ever closer to Greenville! It looks to be touching S parts of the county and as you stated, Greenwood bullseyes!I'm still in the 8-12" range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yep! That new map they just showed on TWC has the 12+ inch bullseye creeping ever closer to Greenville! It looks to be touching S parts of the county and as you stated, Greenwood bullseyes! I'm still in the 8-12" range! If this were a winter storm, I think we'd be saying that were exactly where we want to be. Not in the bullseye yet but moving closer as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is what the Euro said should fall between 8am-2pm...umm, what a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ It can't ever get a prediction of robust precipitation right, but it sure is right about keeping weather systems away from the area, just about every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is what the Euro said should fall between 8am-2pm...umm, what a bust. *insert random statement about wheelhouses and now-casting here* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 *insert random statement about wheelhouses and now-casting here* LOL...you said it. The HRRR is doing well but that's only going out 15 hours. Also, the RGEM seems to be doing well too, this was the 0z run with precip through 8pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is what the Euro said should fall between 8am-2pm...umm, what a bust. Do the Euro clown maps take into account the melted sleet and count it as cold rain? Cause that throws off the numbers for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ It can't ever get a prediction of robust precipitation right, but it sure is right about keeping weather systems away from the area, just about every single time. I guess dry and sunny is a lot easier to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 according to the modeled radar is supposed to blow up this afternoon....guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The ULL is starting to crank up in southern Louisiana as shown on recent WV images. according to the modeled radar is supposed to blow up this afternoon....guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The ULL is starting to crank up in southern Louisiana ana as shown on recent WV images. I am new to this. Please explain. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Counter clock wise flow in Louisiana is the ULL. You can see it start to wrap up. As it does, the energy it creates will bring the rain. Also, you can see the interaction the the cat 4 of the coast of FL. I assume the radar will begin to pop as we head through the day. This is also backed up by recent short range modeling as noted about by other posters. I am new to this. Please explain. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Counter clock wise flow in Louisiana is the ULL. You can see it start to wrap up. As it does, the energy it creates will bring the rain. Also, you can see the interaction the the cat 4 of the coast of FL. I assume the radar will begin to pop as we head through the day. This is also backed up by recent short range modeling as noted about by other posters. Got you. So it is essentially pulling moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic? Will it pull in winds from the cane or just the moisture from the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ It can't ever get a prediction of robust precipitation right, but it sure is right about keeping weather systems away from the area, just about every single time.and when it's the only one showing a snowstorm it's wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I am new to this. Please explain. TIA! The upper level low on strongwx's image has dropped down from the northwest. It will bottom out and crawl east to a position near Jacksonville by Sunday night. As it does this, the rains will work west from the coast, and pivot across the Carolinas. A lot of times these heavy precip bands can setup farther north than modeled, that's why I mentioned the southern half of NC earlier could be hit hard even though the models are targeting SC more at the current time. There's going to be a focused area of intense rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 12z GFS soaks CLT...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Great explanation. The upper level low on strongwx's image has dropped down from the northwest. It will bottom out and crawl east to a position near Jacksonville by Sunday night. As it does this, the rains will work west from the coast, and pivot across the Carolinas. A lot of times these heavy precip bands can setup farther north than modeled, that's why I mentioned the southern half of NC earlier could be hit hard even though the models are targeting SC more at the current time. There's going to be a focused area of intense rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS gives Spartanburg County 18+ inches by Monday. Amazing that it's still spitting out these totals as we get closer to the event, whether they're right or not (and probably not). *edit - Sorry upon closer inspection that Cherokee County, or on the border anyway - Greenville is in the 12-15 range, along with CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 12-18" across CLT on GFS, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The moist dynamics are going to play a huge role in where the axis of heaviest precipitation sets up. The intense precipitation ongoing in coastal NC/SC is ultimately going to impact the enhancement of the easterly flow in the southeast. I'll step through it using the 6Z GFS forecast... At 12UTC, we know there was intense precipitation along the NC/SC coastline as evidenced by the vertical motion contours (red contours) below. The resultant diabatic outflow (outflow due to the heavy precipitation) pushes westward against the upper-level PV contours (grey contours). Stepping forward to 18UTC (the 12-hour forecast), there is still intense convection along the coastline and we can see that the PV gradient along the eastern flank of the trough has been pushed slightly westward. This trend continues through the 18- and 24-hour forecasts. The diabatic outflow builds the downstream ridge and "erodes" the PV though the Ohio Valley such that the orientation of the trough/downstream ridge eventually produce southeasterly flow into the Carolinas bringing in that tropical moisture plume. I took the time to go through that because if the precipitation is slightly over or underdone in the model, it is going to affect the ultimate location and orientation of these dynamic features and the resultant QPF. Since most models don't use a hot start, there are going to be non-trivial errors in the precipitation forecast that may well have important implications for where the heaviest precipitation occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS gives Spartanburg County 18+ inches by Monday. Amazing that it's still spitting out these totals as we get closer to the event, whether they're right or not (and probably not).Can't get it to pull up on my phone. How's Greenville looking?Edit- never mind. I see you posted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And I don't even want to say what the 13km GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Can't get it to pull up on my phone. How's Greenville looking? Like it will float away. 13km GFS says 28" on Greenville's SC/NC border. So, maybe 20"? My map only goes up to 15", and we're well within that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS just, at least, doubled QPF in Charlotte. Maybe even tripled once the grid data comes totally out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS just, at least, doubled QPF in Charlotte. Maybe even tripled once the grid data comes totally out. That's an incredible and devastating hit for CLT, GSP, COLA, and especially the southern mountains of NC. I don't buy it, but it's stunning to see it on a model run this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To my untrained eye... it looks as if the axis of moister over the last few runs of GFS are moving farther east and north>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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