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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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NOAA is warning this is a 1000 year flood for South Carolina

We will have to ask JBuns what the last one looked like! :)

Pices up 1.4 overnight and still moderate rain! The "band" has not even set up yet! The heaviest rains are still supposed to be tonight and tomorrow around here. Get 2-3 inches before the main event, and could get bad!

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RAH

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY......WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY......FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE. OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE... DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
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It's been raining steady since I woke up at 6 am this morning. Already standing water on the road in lots of places. This isn't even the bulk of the moisture were suppose to get. I said in an earlier post I was skeptical of this historic rain event, but I'm becoming a believer. Might make a small grocery run here in a little bit and than post up at the house for the rest of the weekend.

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RAH saying there have been lots of reports of trees down in the Triad.

I can verify that. I'm working in Winston and there are two areas with trees and power lines down. The thing that has been so strange to me...because I've never seen it except during snow/ice...is the amount of limbs down. I guess they are so saturated with water that they are just rotting.

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The rain is really struggling to head west. We'll see what actually makes it.

According to my admittedly untrained eye, the radar seems to match up pretty well with what the 6Z NAM was showing (except there's more precip over western SC/NC). It doesn't really show a westward shift until this afternoon - but take that for what it's worth.

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Looking at the WV loop you can see a more direct moisture connection forming between the ULL system and Joaquin. 06z NAM seemed to have a little better handle on the intensity of the short term precip in NC, but kind of have to throw it out longer range due to what it does with the hurricane.

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GFS has the rains working westward from the coast this evening and overnight, then pivoting and training just north of the sfc low located across SE GA / S SC.  These 3 images span from 11AM Sat to 11AM Monday, so that gives an idea of the extended threat period.  Big time low level convergence into the sfc low shown with tropical moisture tap.  Flood issues likely wherever that band sets up and pivots....could be anywhere from portions of the southern half of NC, SW NC, NE/E GA, and anywhere in SC 

 

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