mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wow. Quite a cut in precip in our area, ULL not going to produce as much in WNC?The focus of the strongest band of rain has shifted S and W over the last couple of days. Now focused from CAE to Greenwood to Athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NOAA is warning this is a 1000 year flood for South CarolinaWe will have to ask JBuns what the last one looked like! Pices up 1.4 overnight and still moderate rain! The "band" has not even set up yet! The heaviest rains are still supposed to be tonight and tomorrow around here. Get 2-3 inches before the main event, and could get bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RAH .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY......WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY......FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE. OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE... DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's been raining steady since I woke up at 6 am this morning. Already standing water on the road in lots of places. This isn't even the bulk of the moisture were suppose to get. I said in an earlier post I was skeptical of this historic rain event, but I'm becoming a believer. Might make a small grocery run here in a little bit and than post up at the house for the rest of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Really worried about the wind combined with all this rain. Hopefully, the wind won't be as bad as they are thinking it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE... So we could have severe storms, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So we could have severe storms, too? All we need now is a snow flake or two to fully round this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Brick is now in a state of emergency. LOL... Euro from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ 5"+ is pretty respectable. The CR castle is just a few miles away from the 9" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pack, that is a huge cut for the Upstate of South Carolina. Guess we are going to need to revise the expected totals. That is a cut everywhere except NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RAH saying there have been lots of reports of trees down in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looking at the radar, looks like we're going to get a break shortly. Under a Flash Flood Watch and a Wind Advisory. With saturated ground, power outages definitely will be an increasing problem throughout the day, if we have frequent gusts into the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Savanah River Flooding will be very bad downstream in Savanah if the euro is correct. Thats the river basin that catches the brunt of the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ 5"+ is pretty respectable. The CR castle is just a few miles away from the 9" line. Looks like I am in the 4.5 to 5 range. Hope that is not enough to flood the creek near my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rain is really struggling to head west. We'll see what actually makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RAH saying there have been lots of reports of trees down in the Triad. I can verify that. I'm working in Winston and there are two areas with trees and power lines down. The thing that has been so strange to me...because I've never seen it except during snow/ice...is the amount of limbs down. I guess they are so saturated with water that they are just rotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 gonna end up with 4-5" by the time we get the break in the rain headed this way, this is on top of the 3" the day before, had off and on heavy rain all night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rain is really struggling to head west. We'll see what actually makes it. It pushed just to the east of my location and now seems to be pulling back a bit. I've only had 0.3" since midnight after just 0.4" yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rain is really struggling to head west. We'll see what actually makes it. According to my admittedly untrained eye, the radar seems to match up pretty well with what the 6Z NAM was showing (except there's more precip over western SC/NC). It doesn't really show a westward shift until this afternoon - but take that for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 From GSP at least Here for me In Valdese NC Just East Of Morganton(Burke County). We still get 5-10inches and on top of that this High Wind Watch was issued for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Meanwhile, for our friends in SW Virginia... US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 29 mins · Flooding still a major concern across the majority of our area, especially this evening into the overnight hours. For the latest information, see our latest event briefing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj_sO_F_J-M&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looking at the WV loop you can see a more direct moisture connection forming between the ULL system and Joaquin. 06z NAM seemed to have a little better handle on the intensity of the short term precip in NC, but kind of have to throw it out longer range due to what it does with the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rain is really struggling to head west. We'll see what actually makes it. Yep, matches up well with HRRR, which keeps heaviest to our east. Doesn't match up with Euro or 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just looked and had 3.5" in the gauge this is since maybe 10 or 11 last night and radar says I am good for another 1-2" in the short term and then we see if the models have it right shifting the axis of heavier stuff to the west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Morning VLOG from Brad P: https://www.facebook.com/wxbradWCNC/videos/952774941461629/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 44m44 minutes ago Timeline of Expected Weather and Impacts for Central North Carolina, updated 9 AM, Friday, Oct 2, 2015 #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS has the rains working westward from the coast this evening and overnight, then pivoting and training just north of the sfc low located across SE GA / S SC. These 3 images span from 11AM Sat to 11AM Monday, so that gives an idea of the extended threat period. Big time low level convergence into the sfc low shown with tropical moisture tap. Flood issues likely wherever that band sets up and pivots....could be anywhere from portions of the southern half of NC, SW NC, NE/E GA, and anywhere in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 They are letting school out early here in Pitt Co due to road flooding etc and its coming down like crazy right now, my backyard is a lake..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some nice isentropic ascent bringing the rich moisture plume onshore in the 12z upper analysis. Coincides well with region of heavy precipitation at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its avoiding Columbia, SC for now. Hopefully stays that way until after work at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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