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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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"Especially hard hit will be the northern third and eastern georgia". I haven't seen any models showing a 50 year flood event for atlanta and I have a hard time believing it could be worse than 2009. He should have said northeast and east Georgia instead of northern third of Georgia which would include Atlanta.

good grief. This is one of the more silly criticisms/comments i've seen in a while.  I'm not sure what his criteria is but most of the time when the nws, myself, or virtually anyone else references Northern 3rd of georgia it does NOT normally cover atlanta. It normally refers to the area roughly  rome to gainesville to toccoa or hartwell. In fact he says gainesville, toccoa, and athens. :arrowhead:

 

The fact is the area he is referencing and the severity is pretty accurate based on whats being projected at the moment. Pretty incredible you somehow find a way to criticize it.

Just posted by Robert......

 

12079056_1143573402339380_86716062112194

You probably already know but that's wpcs 7 day totals.

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good grief. This is one of the more silly criticisms/comments i've seen in a while. I'm not sure what his criteria is but most of the time when the nws, myself, or virtually anyone else references Northern 3rd of georgia it does NOT normally cover atlanta. It normally refers to the area roughly rome to gainesville to toccoa or hartwell. In fact he says gainesville, toccoa, and athens. :arrowhead:

The fact is the area he is referencing and the severity is pretty accurate based on whats being projected at the moment. Pretty incredible you somehow find a way to criticize it.

You probably already know but that's wpcs 7 day totals.

That's what snowstorm2011 does! Not much contributing, but comments like: October is our driest month, why are we getting so much rain",etc

I'll prepare for 3-5", till we pass that!

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Local forecast.... tonight's 1"-2" is now...

 

Showers or drizzle before 2am, then showers after 2am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 59. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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at least this time people are warned ahead of time. That event wasn't forecast days in advance.

 

I'll disagree a bit with that. I was in the area in western Douglas County Dog River drainage that got the highest rain amounts, and emptied at least 20" out of my gauge (too bad it was after I'd stopped Cocorahs). We knew we were going to be getting lots and lots of rain and that there'd likely be flooding and bridge issues. Losing as many bridges as we did, having Post Road wash out, water main destroyed and draining the tower, stuff like that - that wasn't specifically forecast, but it was by no means out of the blue.

 

I don't think the regional flooding models had taken into account how much of the Sweetwater Creek drainage had become pavement in the previous decade.  Hundreds of acres of woods along the section from 78 to I-20 were now shopping centers and parking lots.

 

I hope the folks in the mountains are ready to be stuck for weeks if their bridges wash out or are damaged too much to use.

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00z GEFS continues the 10+ inch amounts on it's mean (11.08 right at Saluda, SC) around the Midlands of SC. I think it's going to be hard to avoid this heavier banding through here with so much ensemble support from the GFS.  I'm sure there are some very heavy members involved, but not quite enough to totally skew it with other modeling going up to 20 inches or even more.

 

WPC's last forecast maps were quite ominous too.

 

As of 12z the Euro Ensemble mean was around 8 inches at KCAE.  A few monsters involved in that too, but nothing to ridiculously skew it.

 

Someone in the Midlands of SC is definitely going to get clobbered where the absolute heaviest portion of the band goes.

 

 

Buckeye, do you have a boat I can borrow?

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You know it's bad when model images are coming out and they lack color scales for the amounts of rain possible, so you can't see a true amount without the highest total/bullseye markers.

 

One image of the  HWRF was posted that had a 32 inch maximum in SC.  The WeatherBell maps read it off as 20 because they just don't go that high!

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You know it's bad when model images are coming out and they lack color scales for the amounts of rain possible, so you can't see a true amount without the highest total/bullseye markers.

One image of the HWRF was posted that had a 32 inch maximum in SC. The WeatherBell maps read it off as 20 because they just don't go that high!

Not bad here until late tonight it looks like.

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mcd0541.gif

435 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 CORRECTED FOR MATCHING THE COLOR OF THE TEXT TO THE FORECASTATTRIBUTEAREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/NC...  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  VALID 020813Z - 021413Z SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN THE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE NC/SCHAVE BEEN NOTED WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE.INSTABILITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULDSLOWLY MIGRATE INLAND CARRYING SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION INTOCOASTAL LOCATIONS. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONGLOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE MORNING.DISCUSSION...THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINEDFRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTUREIN PLACE AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. THE DEEPESTCONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CLOUDTOPS REACHING -70C IN SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THEHEAVIER RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INLAND PER MESONETOBSERVATIONS FROM ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE 1.60 INCHES HASFALLEN IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALLTO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MIGRATE INLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERALHOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS.ONE OF THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTORS IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHCURRENT MUCAPES BELOW 500 J/K OVER THE COASTLINE. MANY SOLUTIONSDO SHOW THESE HIGHER BUOYANCY PROFILES SLOWLY ADVECTING INLANDWHICH WOULD BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES INTO NC/SC.EVALUATING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR...THERE HAS BEEN ANOTABLE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 12Z.THUS...ADJUSTED THE MPD AREA A BIT MORE INLAND TO ACCOUNT FORTHESE MULTI-CYCLE TRENDS. OTHER AVAILABLE CAMS TENDED TO FAVOR ASOLUTION CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECIDED TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTHSCENARIOS HERE AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION.
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Now we've got this to deal with as well...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.* TIMING...THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.* WINDS...15 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS  45 MPH.* IMPACTS...FALLING TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND SCATTERED POWER  OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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