UpstateSCBud Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't live anywhere near a creek or river and yet I still shudder to think what that much rain could do to my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 In the words of an faa intern: Ho lee fuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I know the the coast and plains are going to get hammered but the mountains if this pans out are going to be in big trouble especially the eastern escarpment. This could get real dangerous real fast around here. We have already seen 5 to 20 inches around here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Final Forecast Rain Totals From Brad For Western NC: PS: I live in Valdese NC just 5miles East Of Morganton NC So 10-15inches Of Rain For me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Everyone from va to Sc east of the mountains should be prepared . This situation is one where you could have serveral jackpot areas over serveral states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Final Forecast Rain Totals From Brad For Western NC: PS: I live in Valdese NC just 5miles East Of Morganton NC So 10-15inches Of Rain For me The escarpment is going to get hammered if these totals hold up. Let's of flooding and land slides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its raining here. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 From Brad P.'s blog post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 "Especially hard hit will be the northern third and eastern georgia". I haven't seen any models showing a 50 year flood event for atlanta and I have a hard time believing it could be worse than 2009. He should have said northeast and east Georgia instead of northern third of Georgia which would include Atlanta. good grief. This is one of the more silly criticisms/comments i've seen in a while. I'm not sure what his criteria is but most of the time when the nws, myself, or virtually anyone else references Northern 3rd of georgia it does NOT normally cover atlanta. It normally refers to the area roughly rome to gainesville to toccoa or hartwell. In fact he says gainesville, toccoa, and athens. The fact is the area he is referencing and the severity is pretty accurate based on whats being projected at the moment. Pretty incredible you somehow find a way to criticize it. Just posted by Robert...... You probably already know but that's wpcs 7 day totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 good grief. This is one of the more silly criticisms/comments i've seen in a while. I'm not sure what his criteria is but most of the time when the nws, myself, or virtually anyone else references Northern 3rd of georgia it does NOT normally cover atlanta. It normally refers to the area roughly rome to gainesville to toccoa or hartwell. In fact he says gainesville, toccoa, and athens. The fact is the area he is referencing and the severity is pretty accurate based on whats being projected at the moment. Pretty incredible you somehow find a way to criticize it. You probably already know but that's wpcs 7 day totals. That's what snowstorm2011 does! Not much contributing, but comments like: October is our driest month, why are we getting so much rain",etcI'll prepare for 3-5", till we pass that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Local forecast.... tonight's 1"-2" is now... Showers or drizzle before 2am, then showers after 2am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 59. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 10m10 minutes ago Because so many asked, if all the rain was snow. #snOMG #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 6 retweets5 favorites Reply Retweet 6 Favorite 5 More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yup! This thing is a bust LOL. All the models suck. Seriously? Do us all a favor and keep your comments in the banter thread if this is the best you can do.....smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 at least this time people are warned ahead of time. That event wasn't forecast days in advance. I'll disagree a bit with that. I was in the area in western Douglas County Dog River drainage that got the highest rain amounts, and emptied at least 20" out of my gauge (too bad it was after I'd stopped Cocorahs). We knew we were going to be getting lots and lots of rain and that there'd likely be flooding and bridge issues. Losing as many bridges as we did, having Post Road wash out, water main destroyed and draining the tower, stuff like that - that wasn't specifically forecast, but it was by no means out of the blue. I don't think the regional flooding models had taken into account how much of the Sweetwater Creek drainage had become pavement in the previous decade. Hundreds of acres of woods along the section from 78 to I-20 were now shopping centers and parking lots. I hope the folks in the mountains are ready to be stuck for weeks if their bridges wash out or are damaged too much to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Been steady moderate rain here for hours now and radar shows no signs of that letting up, SW of here in SE NC they are getting hammered right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GEFS continues the 10+ inch amounts on it's mean (11.08 right at Saluda, SC) around the Midlands of SC. I think it's going to be hard to avoid this heavier banding through here with so much ensemble support from the GFS. I'm sure there are some very heavy members involved, but not quite enough to totally skew it with other modeling going up to 20 inches or even more. WPC's last forecast maps were quite ominous too. As of 12z the Euro Ensemble mean was around 8 inches at KCAE. A few monsters involved in that too, but nothing to ridiculously skew it. Someone in the Midlands of SC is definitely going to get clobbered where the absolute heaviest portion of the band goes. Buckeye, do you have a boat I can borrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Been steady moderate rain here for hours now and radar shows no signs of that letting up, SW of here in SE NC they are getting hammered right now.... I got ~5" just last night, so I'm already well on my way before the "main event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You know it's bad when model images are coming out and they lack color scales for the amounts of rain possible, so you can't see a true amount without the highest total/bullseye markers. One image of the HWRF was posted that had a 32 inch maximum in SC. The WeatherBell maps read it off as 20 because they just don't go that high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We are getting hammered in SE NC right now, jacksonville points east was actually the only few places in the state not experiencing drought and the rain is coming down in buckets right now; was actually loud enough to wake me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You know it's bad when model images are coming out and they lack color scales for the amounts of rain possible, so you can't see a true amount without the highest total/bullseye markers. One image of the HWRF was posted that had a 32 inch maximum in SC. The WeatherBell maps read it off as 20 because they just don't go that high! Not bad here until late tonight it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 435 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 CORRECTED FOR MATCHING THE COLOR OF THE TEXT TO THE FORECASTATTRIBUTEAREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/NC... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 020813Z - 021413Z SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN THE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE NC/SCHAVE BEEN NOTED WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE.INSTABILITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULDSLOWLY MIGRATE INLAND CARRYING SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION INTOCOASTAL LOCATIONS. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONGLOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE MORNING.DISCUSSION...THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINEDFRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTUREIN PLACE AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. THE DEEPESTCONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CLOUDTOPS REACHING -70C IN SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THEHEAVIER RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INLAND PER MESONETOBSERVATIONS FROM ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE 1.60 INCHES HASFALLEN IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALLTO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MIGRATE INLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERALHOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS.ONE OF THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTORS IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHCURRENT MUCAPES BELOW 500 J/K OVER THE COASTLINE. MANY SOLUTIONSDO SHOW THESE HIGHER BUOYANCY PROFILES SLOWLY ADVECTING INLANDWHICH WOULD BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES INTO NC/SC.EVALUATING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR...THERE HAS BEEN ANOTABLE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 12Z.THUS...ADJUSTED THE MPD AREA A BIT MORE INLAND TO ACCOUNT FORTHESE MULTI-CYCLE TRENDS. OTHER AVAILABLE CAMS TENDED TO FAVOR ASOLUTION CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECIDED TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTHSCENARIOS HERE AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 US National Weather Service Wilmington NC Just now · I don't remember the last time I saw a High Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Incredible stuff forecast. I can't stress enough how serious this situation may become over the next 72 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 20 mins · Latest storm total rainfall forecast (Fri - Sun night): http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_hydro #ncwx #scwx #gawx #cltwx #avlwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 20 mins · Latest storm total rainfall forecast (Fri - Sun night): http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_hydro #ncwx #scwx #gawx #cltwx #avlwx Looks like they have trimmed totals back so that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like they have trimmed totals back so that is good. Wow. Quite a cut in precip in our area, ULL not going to produce as much in WNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wow. Quite a cut in precip in our area, ULL not going to produce as much in WNC?I'm not really sure. Maybe less interaction with the hurricane means less rainfall. We will see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Now we've got this to deal with as well... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.* TIMING...THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.* WINDS...15 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.* IMPACTS...FALLING TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Dumped 1.3 out of my rain guage this morning on my way to work. Add that to the 5.6 from Wednesday night and I'm right at 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NOAA is warning this is a 1000 year flood for South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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