yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 hr 93 and 96 Joaquin rides the VA/NC border line westward Continues at 99 and 102 but at a very slow pace... at 105 in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is a northerly shift considered a trend towards the Euro solution or no? No not IMO at least. I've heard a few mets say there's really no middle ground here. It sort of either comes inland inside that generalized cone or it goes out to sea. I think this is still solidly in the GFS' existing camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So, I'm not sure if I'm reading all of this right. Is everyone saying the Euro has essentially caved and the coastal areas of NC and VA are likely to be devastated? I don't think anyone has said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We should have a fair idea by 48 I think. Still could be a decent error but we should at least know the general idea of landfall. That is smart to frame the conversation in a manner where you are not over-reaching with forecast confidence. I'm guessing that the conversations at LWX must be fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cant wait to see the ens this run. had to be a shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So NHC took the least climatologically sensible solution because it is a model compromise? So now the Chesapeake solution will get hyped even though it is the least likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs slightly wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm starting to feel lke the final solution wI'll most closely resemble the 0z gfs last night. Obviously just speculation. This far out with Sandy we had a pretty good handle on where it was headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z (like the 12z) still manages to get some fierce 50-60MPH gusts up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hmm...the 18z track is very similar to the GEFS-P ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So NHC took the least climatologically sensible solution because it is a model compromise? So now the Chesapeake solution will get hyped even though it is the least likely... Didn't they do that earlier this year with another storm? Kept shifting ever so slightly each advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm starting to feel lke the final solution wI'll most closely resemble the 0z gfs last night. Obviously just speculation. This far out with Sandy we had a pretty good handle on where it was headed. Did we? There were maps posted earlier showing how many models curved Sandy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Honestly, I didn't expect the Euro to hold full serve like that. At the worst I though some sort of compromise. Back to back runs with little variance. Doesn't mean it has "nailed it" by any stretch. But that combined with enough GEFS members offshore gives me enough pause to not feel confident in anything. Neither an EC hit or complete miss would surprise me at this point. Watch and wait is all we have. Maybe it's my fault because I test fired my generator this morning. Sorry man. I thought it would start to cave by 12z yesterday. It's been so consistent it's hard to dismiss. Officially I am still targeting the VA Capes or so. This is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Did we though? Here's what we were looking at four days out with Sandy. I still think we need to begin to see additional consensus between the ECM & the rest of the camp. I'm starting to feel lke the final solution wI'll most closely resemble the 0z gfs last night. Obviously just speculation. This far out with Sandy we had a pretty good handle on where it was headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm starting to feel lke the final solution wI'll most closely resemble the 0z gfs last night. Obviously just speculation. This far out with Sandy we had a pretty good handle on where it was headed. I don't believe so. Many solutions showed Sandy going OTS at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I thought it would start to cave by 12z yesterday. It's been so consistent it's hard to dismiss. Officially I am still targeting the VA Capes or so. This is ours. Chesapeake Bay track or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Didn't they do that earlier this year with another storm? Kept shifting ever so slightly each advisory. They might not have a choice in how to approach it because of the divergent solutions...But seems like hedging results in a solution that no models are showing (maybe there are a couple tropical models)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So NHC took the least climatologically sensible solution because it is a model compromise? So now the Chesapeake solution will get hyped even though it is the least likely...Their methodology is kind of outdated at this point. But I don't think that track is the least likely. Their earlier tracks were provably the least likely. Still they can't make huge shifts every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Their methodology is kind of outdated at this point. But I don't think that track is the least likely. Their earlier tracks were provably the least likely. Still they can't make huge shifts every 6 hrs. I would have stuck with the 2am or 5am track throughout today...but I'm just a weenie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Did we though? Here's what we were looking at four days out with Sandy. I still think we need to begin to see additional consensus between the ECM & the rest of the camp. Nice post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Chesapeake Bay track or bust. Seen talk about it 'creating it's own environment' etc but I don't see how it can go very far south unless it immediately starts running toward SC or something. The incoming trough won't allow that. 12z gfs/CMC was the southern bound imo. A correction back north seems a decent bet unless the everyone but the euro fails option comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is a good track for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't believe so. Many solutions showed Sandy going OTS at this time range.I was basing that statement off of this NHC forecast 4 days before Sandy hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seen talk about it 'creating it's own environment' etc but I don't see how it can go very far south unless it immediately starts running toward SC or something. The incoming trough won't allow that. 12z gfs/CMC was the southern bound imo. A correction back north seems a decent bet unless the everyone but the euro fails option comes into play. Yeah I'm in agreement. I definitely don't think ILM is completely out of the question but you're right that seems like a southern limitation. I'm not sure I want to say that a VA/MD/DE hit is the most likely either, though. Euro absolutely needs to start coming this way soon if it's going to happen. Wild model watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Did we though? Here's what we were looking at four days out with Sandy. I still think we need to begin to see additional consensus between the ECM & the rest of the camp. That's 6 days before sandy. Those models are from the 24th, sandy hit on the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That's 6 days before sandy. Those models are from the 24th, sandy hit on the 30th. Sandy hit on the 29th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sandy hit on the 29th.. You're right, at like 8pm. So those models were 5 1/2 days before sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cantore spotted in Virginia Beach. TWC making their bet for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You're right, at like 8pm. So those models were 5 1/2 days before sandy. basically where we're at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z Euro ensemble tracks more strongly favor glancing blow or out to sea now. Roughly 1/3 bring (center of) the system into SC/NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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