Interstate Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New NHC track takes it up Chesapeake Bay. Surprised Just because of the Euro... The NHC is saying right now it will hit the Carolinas Given the shift in the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I prob missed it, but did NHC have Joaquin as a major on Fri and Sat in the previous updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Has anyone ever seen this? I just stumbled on it... its live tracking of NOAA surveillance flight data... http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Has anyone ever seen this? I just stumbled on it... its live tracking of NOAA surveillance flight data... http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi Yes - here's another that adds non-flying a/c and some NASA environmental flights - http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=_11&zoom=3&lat=27.4764&lng=-99.9532&callsign=NASA928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 did you move to our area? Yes. I work at LWX now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Has anyone ever seen this? I just stumbled on it... its live tracking of NOAA surveillance flight data... http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi One of several standard tools used among the long-timers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes. I work at LWX now. If you don't mind, in your opinion, when will track confidence lock in?...24 hours, 48 hours?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What do you think about the track of Joaquin should it make landfall? A lot has been made in this thread about landfall location, but just as important to sensible impacts IMO is the heading Joaquin takes once inland. A due west into NC isn't nearly as damaging I think as a outer banks scrape and wnw track through VA. Well for you guys you probably want a track into VA and not too far south of DC to put you on the right hand side. Wind field probably expands too. But this is all very hypothetical...lol. I certainly would not predict that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQLYXrpWcAAzk18.mp4 This is the coolest thing I have ever seen in my life. Where did you get this from. I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If you don't mind, in your opinion, when will track confidence lock in?...24 hours, 48 hours?? We should have a fair idea by 48 I think. Still could be a decent error but we should at least know the general idea of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 VA has declared a SoE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Where ever he makes landfall, I think we see a hook to the NE fairly quickly thus effecting most of the mid-Atlantic with TS force winds. I'm thinking a Virginia direct hit; I don't see this system barreling due west into the Piedmont though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Numerous indeed. Supposedly these off hour launches are going to continue for the forseeable future? Yes... as well as at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 HR 66 slightly east and stronger Trough is further NW this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes. I work at LWX now.just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 72 Secondary is now there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 75 phasing begining this is coming north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So, I'm not sure if I'm reading all of this right. Is everyone saying the Euro has essentially caved and the coastal areas of NC and VA are likely to be devastated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 84 closing in on OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely swinging into Northern NC - VA this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the 18z GFS shifted a little north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GFS looks like a worst case scenario for the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hr 87 landfall just SW of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Central OBX hit this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The trajectory is drastically more northerly than 12z ETA: actually, only a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 hr 93 and 96 Joaquin rides the VA/NC border line westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There went the south trend. first run that has brought this further north since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tons of weenies will be up for the 0z Euro tonight. Watch it not change at all...The model tracking for this has been fun to watch if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is a northerly shift considered a trend towards the Euro solution or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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