Wonderdog Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Afternoon LWX AFD So, the stronger Joaquin is, the more likely of an east coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look at the ones out in the Atlantic. Those are outliers - that's why your mean isn't where you think it should be.. Maybe my eyes are fooling me. It doesn't look like there are nearly that many outliers that would affect the mean line that drastically... hard to tell this zoomed out. Doesn't really matter. Was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I was referring more to the landfall possibilities that appear to range anywhere from SC to Greenland Ah ha, I thought you meant from a perspective of DC area getting maximum impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Honestly, I didn't expect the Euro to hold full serve like that. At the worst I though some sort of compromise. Back to back runs with little variance. Doesn't mean it has "nailed it" by any stretch. But that combined with enough GEFS members offshore gives me enough pause to not feel confident in anything. Neither an EC hit or complete miss would surprise me at this point. Watch and wait is all we have. Maybe it's my fault because I test fired my generator this morning. Sorry man. karma for wishing for death and destruction yesterday. tisk tisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uneven spread skews the mean. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Right... w/o going too far off topic while we wait for the NAM (!), there is a large cluster around SC/OBX; the rest of the tracks are all over the place from Chesapeake to Cornwall... So a mean at the Chesapeake is accurate statistically, but meaningless in practical terms. A mode might be more useful in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe my eyes are fooling me. It doesn't look like there are nearly that many outliers that would affect the mean line that drastically... hard to tell this zoomed out. Doesn't really matter. Was just curious. There's 21 GEFS members. I count like 4-6 that have solutions to the east in the ocean. That's plenty enough to skew a mean a bit. Same principle that if I'm taking class GPA averages and a few people get F's it's going to be enough to skew. I'm not convinced it will go as far south as some of the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 EPS members all over the place at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 EPS members all over the place at 96 I saw a post in another forum saying they jumped "way east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There's 21 GEFS members. I count like 4-6 that have solutions to the east in the ocean. That's plenty enough to skew a mean a bit. Same principle that if I'm taking class GPA averages and a few people get F's it's going to be enough to skew. I'm not convinced it will go as far south as some of the models today. Agree. I'm not sure how useful the mean is when uncertainty is this high. If an EC landfall was imminent or likely then the mean helps narrow down the window. When the spread covers 1k+ miles then the mean isn't really "the most likely track". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can't see it same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can't see it same It's behind a paywall. Won't be able to unless you have a subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There is big bust potential with this. Look at the one. Storm is moving 225 at 7kts. South even of the nhc track. there is certainly some validity to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe my eyes are fooling me. It doesn't look like there are nearly that many outliers that would affect the mean line that drastically... hard to tell this zoomed out. Doesn't really matter. Was just curious. In this case, it isn't the number of outliers that is causing the larger than expected shift east but the huge number of miles difference between the outliers and the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Nearly stationary on the NAM from hour 9 to 33 with only some wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQLYXrpWcAAzk18.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Usually when the Euro is stubborn like it is with the runs it's showing, and other Models are getting to a consensus, the Euro is usually wrong. (1/26-27/15) If the Euro is right however, it would be a big win for the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Several 18z soundings were launched to help resolve synoptic features that could influence the track of #Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQLYXrpWcAAzk18.mp4 Not seeing how this is a OTS lock. There is more uncertainty than ever before including solutions which impact the NE. Ultimately, the NHC consensus track performs the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQLYXrpWcAAzk18.mp4 1. This is great graphic. 2. Among the tracks that make landfall, there's still a decent signal for a Chesapeake Bay entrance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think we can completely toss (which is saying something about the strength of the model) but how awful would it be if the whole of the guidance that counters the euro ended up dead wrong? I still think things are too volatile to have a great sense of what kind of capture, if any, we see. There shouldn't be any no surprise if the Euro is wrong, it's not infallible. Far from it, but it's the best case scenario, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 To my untrained eye it looks like a pretty good south wobble the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 In this case, it isn't the number of outliers that is causing the larger than expected shift east but the huge number of miles difference between the outliers and the rest. Ahh I see. Good to know, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Several 18z soundings were launched to help resolve synoptic features that could influence the track of #Joaquin. Real solid launch by Sterling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Real solid launch by Sterling... Would that just be communication error with the sonde or actual operator error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is it just me or has the NAM been consistently much quicker to bring in the precip tomorrow compared to other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is it just me or has the NAM been consistently much quicker to bring in the precip tomorrow compared to other guidance? The NAM is in a world of its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM is in a world of its own But quite a wet world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That seems...odd.. Especially given the satellite presentation. Recon is on it's way, so I imagine they're being cautious (nothing giving them a reason to change much right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New NHC track takes it up Chesapeake Bay. Surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New NHC track takes it up Chesapeake Bay. Surprised They only will adjust slightly with each update as to not knee jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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