Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There are no new "18Z" models until the 18Z NAM. All there is at 18Z thus far are "interpolated" models where the 12Z forecast track starting points are transposed to the 18Z NHC storm position, and the crappy and largely worthless BAM(s) and LBAR models. Yeah that's what I figured. So of course those will "continue" or hold the track well to the southwest. I won't put much stock in them until the 18z GFS is shown. 00z is going to be HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin looks darn healthy. Would not be surprised to see an eye emerge in the next 1-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is really starting to get that symmetric mean look going on NHC Floater. RI looks like it is coming. Last few frames especially: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Watch this thing dive into Florida and everyone gets egg on their face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 15z SREFs are in two camps it would appear... one group goes into S NC and another group goes into SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All, GOES-13 is in rapid scan vis which you can view on sites other than SSD, and have images updated faster than every 30 min, such as: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sref has 2 areas of lp one into nc&sc other obx and eastern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 SREFs at this range and with this complexity can't be worth a whole lot, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 SREF'S are always to far west with everything as far as I'm concerned it's a good idea what won't happen LOL. Wouldn't surprise me to see everything tomorrow back where it was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Capture.PNG I'd ask if you were practicing for winter, but none of us need that kind of practice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Afternoon LWX AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DESPITE GREAT DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND THERE IS CONSENSUSAMONG 12Z GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC ONFRIDAY AS FOLLOWS...UPR LOW ANCHORS OVER SERN CONUS /CENTERED OVERAL/ BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...UPR LOW REMAINS OVER QUEBEC WHILE A SFCHIGH PERSISTS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL OFF NOVA SCOTIA. SFCCONVERGENCE BETWEEN QUEBEC LOW AND NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH PERSISTSALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WHILE JOAQUIN BEGINS AN EXIT OF THE BAHAMAS.TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUSLOW AND GET WRUNG OUT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO DRIFT WEST THROUGHFRIDAY...DRAWN BY THE SERN CONUS LOW AND PUSHED BY THE THE ATLANTICHIGH. THIS WOULD SPREAD BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WEST ACROSS THE CWA.ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN IS STRONG NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH GUSTSIN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE PER BLEND OF GMOS AND NAM. TEMPERATURESWILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...MAX TEMPSGENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S...LOW 60S FOR NEAR SHORE.FRIDAY NIGHT...COASTAL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TODRIFT WEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MIN TEMPS LOOK RATHERCOOL...40S AND 50S INLAND. THIS COOL AIR IS THE RESULT OF THEDYNAMICAL COOLING ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.&&.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYWITH THE POSITION...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF JOAQUIN. THE EUROPEAN 00ZMODEL INDICATES A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STRONG ANDPOSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE GFS 12Z MODEL INDICATES THECLOSED OFF UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALSO INCOMPARISON...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS A WEAKER JOAQUIN OFFSHORE SOUTHCAROLINA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A POTENT HURRICANEJOAQUIN OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA.DURING THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THESE SAME TWO MODELS HAVEA DISTINCT DIFFERENCE WITH THE EUROPEAN KEEPING JOAQUIN WELLOFFSHORE WHILE THE GFS HAS JOAQUIN MAKING LANDFALL AND BECOMING TIEDINTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.KEEPING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...BUT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATERWEDNESDAY.PLEASE REFER TO NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS OF HURRICANEJOAQUIN AND BE AWARE THERE IS AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ANDFLOODING...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Capture.PNGMy interest level definitely took a hit. We need some 18z gfs lovin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Watch this thing dive into Florida and everyone gets egg on their face.Pretty sure the trough is a problem for that. I'd be skeptical of much more south moves for landfall if there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 looks like a whole lot of GEFS members are north of the OPs track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 looks like a whole lot of GEFS members are north of the OPs track North as in out to sea or north as in Norfolk area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 North as in out to sea or north as in Norfolk area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 looks like a whole lot of GEFS members are north of the OPs track Sent from my iPhone still in this game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Power outage forecast parameters from research and extensive documented case studies: MAX SUST WIND _____ % POP LOSE POWER _____ mean duration power outage(hrs) 50 kts __________________ 25 _______________________ 6 60 kts __________________ 30 _______________________ 9 75 kts __________________ 50 ______________________ 18 90 kts __________________ 65 ______________________ 36 100 kts _________________ 70 ______________________ 48 110 kts _________________ 75 ______________________ 72 This storm scenario probably would not exceed 110 kts anywhere on land (sustained) but further increases in wind speed generally have only marginal increases in power outage as some grids are mainly underground and cannot easily be disrupted. Average restoration time increases faster however. Average restoration time is not a bell curve in appearance and if you take the 75 kt example where 50% lose power for an average of 18 hours, the chances are about equal that restoration will be 12 hours or 30, or 6 hours and 72. As noted by others earlier, the drought followed by heavy rainfall makes it somewhat easier for strong winds to topple trees, and so these numbers which are based on several dozen case studies around the U.S. and Canada (in similar environments in terms of trees) could be conservative. We recently had the same thing happen around here when 60 mph winds hit with some rain but at the end of a long drought. Local hydro officials were surprised by the severity of power outages but it was evident that trees were coming down at a faster rate than they might have done partially leaf-free in November in a similar windstorm. The ratio appeared to be about 2:1 around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My interest level definitely took a hit. We need some 18z gfs lovin. Honestly, I didn't expect the Euro to hold full serve like that. At the worst I though some sort of compromise. Back to back runs with little variance. Doesn't mean it has "nailed it" by any stretch. But that combined with enough GEFS members offshore gives me enough pause to not feel confident in anything. Neither an EC hit or complete miss would surprise me at this point. Watch and wait is all we have. Maybe it's my fault because I test fired my generator this morning. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That mean track is misleading as the spread is uneven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely not what we want to see at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That mean track is misleading as the spread is uneven. Interesting. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely not what we want to see at this stage Yeah it doesn't look like any members favor the chesapeake bay track from 18z GFS yesterday, just as well, massive power outages wouldn't be that fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting. Why?Uneven spread skews the mean. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uneven spread skews the mean. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Of course, but it would seem that the mean line should be much further SW according to that spaghetti plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting. Why? If you take a mean of a group that has outliers in the set it's going to skew a bit towards the outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah it doesn't look like any members favor the chesapeake bay track from 18z GFS yesterday, just as well, massive power outages wouldn't be that fun. I was referring more to the landfall possibilities that appear to range anywhere from SC to Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Of course, but it would seem that the mean line should be much further SW according to that spaghetti plot. Look at the ones out in the Atlantic. Those are outliers - that's why your mean isn't where you think it should be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If you take a mean of a group that has outliers in the set it's going to skew a bit towards the outliers. That's why you have to look at the whole group. Which in this case is weighted west, but those extreme E outliers throw it way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Numerous NWS offices are running special balloon releases at 18z. While not the only factor, perhaps this could add some benefit to data later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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