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Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS


dailylurker

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There are no new "18Z" models until the 18Z NAM.

 

All there is at 18Z thus far are "interpolated" models where the 12Z forecast track starting points are transposed to the 18Z NHC storm position, and the crappy and largely worthless BAM(s) and LBAR models.

Yeah that's what I figured. So of course those will "continue" or hold the track well to the southwest. I won't put much stock in them until the 18z GFS is shown. 00z is going to be HUGE ;)

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Afternoon LWX AFD

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE GREAT DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND THERE IS CONSENSUS
AMONG 12Z GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS FOLLOWS...UPR LOW ANCHORS OVER SERN CONUS /CENTERED OVER
AL/ BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...UPR LOW REMAINS OVER QUEBEC WHILE A SFC
HIGH PERSISTS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL OFF NOVA SCOTIA. SFC
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN QUEBEC LOW AND NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH PERSISTS
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WHILE JOAQUIN BEGINS AN EXIT OF THE BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS
LOW AND GET WRUNG OUT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...DRAWN BY THE SERN CONUS LOW AND PUSHED BY THE THE ATLANTIC
HIGH. THIS WOULD SPREAD BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WEST ACROSS THE CWA.
ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN IS STRONG NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE PER BLEND OF GMOS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S...LOW 60S FOR NEAR SHORE.


FRIDAY NIGHT...COASTAL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MIN TEMPS LOOK RATHER
COOL...40S AND 50S INLAND. THIS COOL AIR IS THE RESULT OF THE
DYNAMICAL COOLING ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE POSITION...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF JOAQUIN. THE EUROPEAN 00Z
MODEL INDICATES A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE GFS 12Z MODEL INDICATES THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALSO IN
COMPARISON...THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS A WEAKER JOAQUIN OFFSHORE SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A POTENT HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA.

DURING THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THESE SAME TWO MODELS HAVE
A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE WITH THE EUROPEAN KEEPING JOAQUIN WELL
OFFSHORE WHILE THE GFS HAS JOAQUIN MAKING LANDFALL AND BECOMING TIED
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

KEEPING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...BUT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATER
WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN AND BE AWARE THERE IS AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND.
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Power outage forecast parameters from research and extensive documented case studies:

 

MAX SUST WIND _____ % POP LOSE POWER _____ mean duration power outage(hrs)

 

50 kts __________________ 25 _______________________ 6

 

60 kts __________________ 30 _______________________ 9

 

75 kts __________________ 50 ______________________ 18

 

90 kts __________________ 65 ______________________ 36

 

100 kts _________________ 70 ______________________ 48

 

110 kts _________________ 75 ______________________ 72

 

This storm scenario probably would not exceed 110 kts anywhere on land (sustained) but further increases in wind speed generally have only marginal increases in power outage as some grids are mainly underground and cannot easily be disrupted. Average restoration time increases faster however. Average restoration time is not a bell curve in appearance and if you take the 75 kt example where 50% lose power for an average of 18 hours, the chances are about equal that restoration will be 12 hours or 30, or 6 hours and 72.

 

As noted by others earlier, the drought followed by heavy rainfall makes it somewhat easier for strong winds to topple trees, and so these numbers which are based on several dozen case studies around the U.S. and Canada (in similar environments in terms of trees) could be conservative. We recently had the same thing happen around here when 60 mph winds hit with some rain but at the end of a long drought. Local hydro officials were surprised by the severity of power outages but it was evident that trees were coming down at a faster rate than they might have done partially leaf-free in November in a similar windstorm. The ratio appeared to be about 2:1 around the city.

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My interest level definitely took a hit. We need some 18z gfs lovin.

 

Honestly, I didn't expect the Euro to hold full serve like that. At the worst I though some sort of compromise. Back to back runs with little variance. Doesn't mean it has "nailed it" by any stretch. But that combined with enough GEFS members offshore gives me enough pause to not feel confident in anything. 

 

Neither an EC hit or complete miss would surprise me at this point. Watch and wait is all we have. Maybe it's my fault because I test fired my generator this morning. Sorry man. 

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Yeah it doesn't look like any members favor the chesapeake bay track from 18z GFS yesterday, just as well, massive power outages wouldn't be that fun.  

I was referring more to the landfall possibilities that appear to range anywhere from SC to Greenland

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