Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS

[BTRWx]

The trough position looks quite a bit slower when comparing frame by frame of the Euro between 0Z and 12z runs respectively ~0-6Z Monday.

[yoda]

Didn't see this posted in this thread yet

 

NOUS42 KWNO 301534ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1511Z WED SEP 30 201512Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..FYI SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS WILL START TO BE RELEASED AT 18Z TODAYBY WFOS ROUGHLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF 42DEGREES LATITUDE.  THE SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING RELEASES WILLCONTINUE AT 18Z AND 06Z UFN TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FORTHE FCST TRACK OF HCN JOAQUINSHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Derecho!]

Model averages are more accurate forecasts than any individual model. Which is why the NHC routinely just makes its track forecasts the TVCN or TVCE verbatim.

 

The whole winter Wx "model war" mental construct where people act like it's a matter of choosing one that is completely correct and discarding the rest isn't really valid.

[mitchnick]

well, for winter purposes in the MA, I'd much rather see a tropical system re-curve ots

[mappy]

Model averages are more accurate forecasts than any individual model. Which is why the NHC routinely just makes its track forecasts the TVCN or TVCE verbatim.

 

The whole winter Wx "model war" mental construct where people act like it's a matter of choosing one that is completely correct and discarding the rest isn't really valid.

 

pfffffffffft speak for yourself.

 

CRAS RULES

[Eskimo Joe]

Call me crazy, but that looks like an eye trying to form:

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Hopefully something was learned from 1/27/15.

And 12/21/14

[Redmorninglight]

After Sandy, its hard to ignore the EC... but then again, after the "Blizzard that wasn't" back in January, its also hard to sign off on it when its by itself.  It may be handling the interaction better than the rest, but its hard to say just yet.  Better to get people thinking about it and start raising alarm bells now, than to wait until the EC jumps on board. 

I was thinking the exact same thing.  I'd side with majority for now and lean on ensembles.

[Ian]

I've favored the west track all along pretty much but facts are still facts that the Euro is generally killer thru day 3 or so on track and it's been rather consistent -- the deal is done by then. It's also simply a better model than the others. The grab vs shunt is a pretty minor shift though so obv you can't run to the east just yet but I'd definitely have wanted to see the Euro start caving more by now. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Its like going with the model that shows you the least amount of snow... should we pick the model that shows something closest to climo track vs all the ones that show the historic hit?

 

Were both the Euro and GFS on board with Sandy? I don't remember.

 

I remember the GFS was right with Jan. 2015 and Euro was wrong for NYC, but which one is better at handling tropical systems?

[mattie g]

Yes, through most of south Carolina and Western North Carolina. (6-10" generally)

 

Thanks.  I'll be driving down 95 through the Carolinas on Friday and that's really my most pressing concern right now.

[BTRWx]

Its like going with the model that shows you the least amount of snow... should we pick the model that shows something closest to climo track vs all the ones that show the historic hit?

 

Were both the Euro and GFS on board with Sandy? I don't remember.

 

I remember the GFS was right with Jan. 2015 and Euro was wrong for NYC, but which one is better at handling tropical systems?

It's a complete flip of the solutions compared to 2012!

[EasternUSWX]

I've favored the west track all along pretty much but facts are still facts that the Euro is generally killer thru day 3 or so on track and it's been rather consistent -- the deal is done by then. It's also simply a better model than the others. The grab vs shunt is a pretty minor shift though so obv you can't run to the east just yet but I'd definitely have wanted to see the Euro start caving more by now. 

 

I mean remember boxing day blizzard and NYC blizzard last year. Euro didn't do well on those even within 72hrs. 

[H2O]

18z GFS will be telling

[87storms]

If we have a chance anything less than a big hit would be sad. Power is for losers.

 

Hurricanes are pretty wild.  Even sustained winds of like 40mph is a cool experience.  I was in central NC during Fran and even though sustained winds were realistically like 20s or 30s, it was still pretty neat to experience.  And I'm talking sustained, not gusts. 

[Deck Pic]

[yoda]

FWIW, GGEM ensemble mean is OBX landfall at hr 84 and moves NNW into E VA at hr 96

 

And there are some ugly members for us (as in getting slammed)

[Derecho!]

Its like going with the model that shows you the least amount of snow... should we pick the model that shows something closest to climo track vs all the ones that show the historic hit?

 

Were both the Euro and GFS on board with Sandy? I don't remember.

 

I remember the GFS was right with Jan. 2015 and Euro was wrong for NYC, but which one is better at handling tropical systems?

 

 

This is objectively tracked by NHC every year.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml

 

There have been signficant GFS iprovements since Sandy. Last year (albeit limited tropical activity) the GFS significantly out-performed the EC at 120 hours.

From 2012-2014 their TC track performance has been extremely similar. Both are outperformed by consensus average models, and at 120 hours significantly by the GFS Ensemble Mean.

[schinz]

FWIW, GGEM ensemble mean is OBX landfall at hr 84 and moves NNW into E VA at hr 96

 

And there are some ugly members for us (as in getting slammed)

 

Yes, I am searching very hard to find ONE SINGLE model that shows what the euro shows.  GGEM, GGEM ensemble, GFS, GFS Ensembles, UKMET...even the Navy and Japanese models show direct hits to the east coast.  How could it be that the one and only model showing out to sea becomes correct?  Am I correct that even the 0z euro ensemble mean showed a direct hit to the coast?

[yuki neko]

Consensus? eh

Another south shift for the 18z

[famartin]

I'm doing some major planting in the next two days (some new, some replacements from summer losses), so if we could just get a good soaking over the weekend, it'd be peachy keen

[yoda]

EURO really on its own with the 18z model track guidance coming in

 

ETA:  Yuki neko posted the image above

[eurojosh]

I'm doing some major planting in the next two days (some new, some replacements from summer losses), so if we could just get a good soaking over the weekend, it'd be peachy keen

 

At this rate we'll be lucky to see clouds...

 

[snowdude]

Before we know it, Florida will be in line for a landfall. Geeze.

Consensus? eh

Another south shift for the 18z

[Kmlwx]

EURO really on its own with the 18z model track guidance coming in

 

ETA:  Yuki neko posted the image above

Aren't the early models on that map based on the prior cycle though? At least with the initial conditions. I vaguely recall somebody saying that in the past. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Yes, I am searching very hard to find ONE SINGLE model that shows what the euro shows.  GGEM, GGEM ensemble, GFS, GFS Ensembles, UKMET...even the Navy and Japanese models show direct hits to the east coast.  How could it be that the one and only model showing out to sea becomes correct?  Am I correct that even the 0z euro ensemble mean showed a direct hit to the coast?

 

 

1.)  The EURO deterministic (operational) remains the furthest east.  It's impossible to ignore, but as some have mentioned inhere it's track record with Sandy gives you pause.  Then again, it hasn't been the greatest since this past winter and might be on it's own this time.

 

2.)  The 00z EURO ensembles, while having quite the spread, featured numerous solution with a US landfall between South Carolina and Long Island.  Even though the GFS and other hurricane models have a spread, the preponderance of guidance shows some kind of US landfall, which is hard to ignore.  My gut tells me that for another 24-30 hours we see a southwest shift with the landfall and then it snaps back north somewhere from the mouth of the Chesapeake to Sandy Hook, NJ.

[Ji]

I'm doing some major planting in the next two days (some new, some replacements from summer losses), so if we could just get a good soaking over the weekend, it'd be peachy keen

 

I'm doing some major planting in the next two days (some new, some replacements from summer losses), so if we could just get a good soaking over the weekend, it'd be peachy keen

did you move to our area?

[AlaskaETC]

EURO really on its own with the 18z model track guidance coming in

 

ETA:  Yuki neko posted the image above

 

Don't tell the Euro marks that.

[USCG RS]

1.) The EURO deterministic (operational) remains the furthest east. It's impossible to ignore, but as some have mentioned inhere it's track record with Sandy gives you pause. Then again, it hasn't been the greatest since this past winter and might be on it's own this time.

2.) The 00z EURO ensembles, while having quite the spread, featured numerous solution with a US landfall between South Carolina and Long Island. Even though the GFS and other hurricane models have a spread, the preponderance of guidance shows some kind of US landfall, which is hard to ignore. My gut tells me that for another 24-30 hours we see a southwest shift with the landfall and then it snaps back north somewhere from the mouth of the Chesapeake to Sandy Hook, NJ.

I tend to agree with you. I posted this in the NYC forums before.

This (the models showing a NC/SC hit) doesn't make sense to me. A hurricane with well defined outflow, in a favorable environment, deepening to around 925-930mb, gets captured by the ULL and pulled directly west. I just don't buy it. I don't see this storm becoming that strong, sitting there and then just getting pulled due west. When it's towards the Delarmva region, that latitude would make more sense, as the baroclycnicity would increase and the storm would be moving over 72-75 degree waters vs 82-84 degree sst's.

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[Derecho!]

Aren't the early models on that map based on the prior cycle though? At least with the initial conditions. I vaguely recall somebody saying that in the past. 

 

 

There are no new "18Z" models until the 18Z NAM.

 

All there is at 18Z thus far are "interpolated" models where the 12Z forecast track starting points are transposed to the 18Z NHC storm position, and the crappy and largely worthless BAM(s) and LBAR models.