Derecho! Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Terrible post and reasoning. It is not one element that needs to be revealed tomorrow to arrive at the ultimate track. There is a massive amount of data and quantitative and physical analysis that underlie the established variables and synoptic set up that will take the system out to sea and away from EC landfall. There is no other solution other than something make believe. Yep. the fact that all of the ensembles agree means there's not a chance IMO. A bit of a jog to the NW isn't going to change anything. Interestingly the parallel T574 GEFS 06Z Ensembles still had three capture and landfall members. And the 0Z EC still had 5 of 50 with the same scenario. It's a slim chance but there's still a chance. If there WAS going to be a massive model failure in the modern era for a major hurricane track (which are increasingly rare, of course) it would be in this sort of situation and the next 12 hours of motion indeed matters. Obviously there are wishcasters but there is still some interest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS and Euro are literally like 500 miles from landfall. Its time to close the thread. Why? This is the climax point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why? This is the climax point. you're asking a guy whose name is "84 Hour NAM" ... don't waste your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 N-NW if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't think there has been an NHC "bust" within their most recent change in the 3-day cone of uncertainty, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Idk if this is true or not, but I was told by a retired met many years ago (not on here) that the NAM was originally developed as a result of a snowstorm bust (I think January 2000?) as a check against the GFS. It was only supposed to be used less than 24 hours out and mostly for winter weather only. Its always been a terrible model from what I've seen in my years of model watching (even within 24 hours) so I never take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why close the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 One thing to point out is that if by some weird "miracle" it gets captured and heads into the E coast it'll still be seen as an american model failure. In theory models should get MORE accurate the closer we get to an event. So if by some chance it hits the E coast the american models still lose (Euro fails too in that case I suppose) but I'm not sure you could credit the GFS and company with the win either. Complex situation = complex model solutions. I suppose it's still possible for this to be the signature model failure of the 2010's but I'm extremely doubtful at this point. Ian sort of almost hooked me back in last night. I've been pretty much off the landfall idea since Wed night really. But what else is there to talk about other than chilly rain that cancels some local schools? But it wasn't necessarily a done deal yesterday or even totally today tho at this point it seems like a heavy long shot. Not sure capture is the right word here per se with the idea of landfall.. more that the mid-latitude trough location mixed with the high to the north creates the channel for it. There have been other cases with similar like Hugo. Do tend to think that without the weakness east it would have tried to come in. The pattern is extremely close to many landfalls.. though I'm sure there are plenty that look similar that didn't as well. The general drive for a storm even that far south is to recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No landfall... but 12z UKIE came west... a good amount IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 yep. this is the crucial difference from Sandy and why those comparisons don't make atmospheric sense. the comparisons to Sandy are irrelevant other than it was a "hurricane" moving NW into the US perhaps. neither of these 500mb lows kicked well developed hurricanes out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 those details could not possibly be less accurate. Idk if this is true or not, but I was told by a retired met many years ago (not on here) that the NAM was originally developed as a result of a snowstorm bust (I think January 2000?) as a check against the GFS. It was only supposed to be used less than 24 hours out and mostly for winter weather only. Its always been a terrible model from what I've seen in my years of model watching (even within 24 hours) so I never take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On the satellite images, it appears that some of the outflow? of Joaquin is being drawn up into the disturbance along the coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 those details could not possibly be less accurate. I suspected as much, but was always curious. Figured this might be a good time to ask with many people online here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I've been pretty much off the landfall idea since Wed night really. But what else is there to talk about other than chilly rain that cancels some local schools? But it wasn't necessarily a done deal yesterday or even totally today tho at this point it seems like a heavy long shot. Not sure capture is the right word here per se with the idea of landfall.. more that the mid-latitude trough location mixed with the high to the north creates the channel for it. There have been other cases with similar like Hugo. Do tend to think that without the weakness east it would have tried to come in. The pattern is extremely close to many landfalls.. though I'm sure there are plenty that look similar that didn't as well. The general drive for a storm even that far south is to recurve. Well, at this point the only models that do bring landfall seem to have a true capture. Hence why they should be discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, at this point the only models that do bring landfall seem to have a true capture. Hence why they should be discarded. I guess I'm not totally sure what we're calling a capture. Sandy fully phased with the mid-latitude trough. A lot of the runs we saw landfall with in this system did not. But again very similar patterns have produced EC and mid-atlantic landfalls in the past.. which is mainly just a way of saying it was worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its now moving NE. Check. Mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I guess I'm not totally sure what we're calling a capture. Sandy fully phased with the mid-latitude trough. A lot of the runs we saw landfall with in this system did not. But again very similar patterns have produced EC and mid-atlantic landfalls in the past.. which is mainly just a way of saying it was worth watching. Again, those were previous runs from several days ago now. The 0Z GGEM, which some still cling to, does indeed show a full phase a la Sandy. The NAM does as well. These are unrealistic considering the system is still ragingly tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its now moving NE. Check. Mate. It isn't. Trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Anyone have a ukmet 12z map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its now moving NE. Check. Mate. It probably is check.mate. but it looks to be continuing NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It isn't. Trust me NNW movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Interesting that someone is allowed to characterize a post as terrible but no rebuke is allowed to remain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I hope this will be enough for some of you...http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Hurricane-Joaquin?map=ensmodel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still wnw http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/jsl_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is pretty good - https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/649998338549485570 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I hope this will be enough for some of you...http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Hurricane-Joaquin?map=ensmodel Looks like a trip to the Azores may be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its now moving NE. Check. Mate. Looks NW or NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks NW or NNW Looks a little SSN to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Coast guard searching for a container ship close to the storm...Hurricane hunters even dropped very low inside the eye a little while ago in order to try and establish contact with the ship...to no avail apparently. 33 people on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Long Island Bahamas has just been getting crushed for like 48 hours. I cant imagine sitting under that thing for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.