eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still heading NE at 36, half out of the frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nearly identical, a bit south even through hr. 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hr 42, approaching Bermuda... Do I need to keep going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hr 42, approaching Bermuda... Do I need to keep going? ...Hr 48 - yes I do! Swinging back wildly and fast towards Norfolk! Just kidding, it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sure has the NW movement shape. I'm rooting for a total model failure.. well I guess the CMC and NAM win the day in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sure has the NW movement shape. I'm rooting for a total model failure.. well I guess the CMC and NAM win the day in that case. I guess the question is how close are the GFS/Euro and company really to bringing it in. I mean are we talking about if it goes like a total of 50 miles more west it captures or is the margin much larger? I think if it's not absurdly close it's pretty much a slam dunk to miss given the model agreement on an OTS track. GEFS and EPS should confirm that as they (as everyone knows) run with slightly different conditions. If all of them bring it OTS it seems pretty slam dunkish to me. But the weenie in me is sort of kind of hopeful but not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A lot of wishcasting here. I think the NAM is just showing how bad of a model it is outside like, 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's coming close to time to consider freezing this thread imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like a good movement nw and it's pushing over 75w 00z models said no to it moving NW this long I believe. It's gotta mind of it's own amazing to watch http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/jsl_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I guess the question is how close are the GFS/Euro and company really to bringing it in. I mean are we talking about if it goes like a total of 50 miles more west it captures or is the margin much larger? I think if it's not absurdly close it's pretty much a slam dunk to miss given the model agreement on an OTS track. GEFS and EPS should confirm that as they (as everyone knows) run with slightly different conditions. If all of them bring it OTS it seems pretty slam dunkish to me. But the weenie in me is sort of kind of hopeful but not really. thank you, we needed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A lot of wishcasting here. I think the NAM is just showing how bad of a model it is outside like, 2-4 hours. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What I imagine when I look at WV images is an NFL punter (trof) getting ready to punt Joaquin out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So basically no one knows where it will end up and anyone who says they do is just model hugging or relying on their favorite forecaster's input. That's the analysis I'm taking away from this thread. The ones who are actually taking time to provide analysis, don't let the haters stop stop you because trust me they don't have a clue what they're talking about. Correct. There are multiple elements each equally capable of directing this storm and which one is The one will not be evident until late Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 no. just no. lol that's exactly what i wanted to reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 One thing to point out is that if by some weird "miracle" it gets captured and heads into the E coast it'll still be seen as an american model failure. In theory models should get MORE accurate the closer we get to an event. So if by some chance it hits the E coast the american models still lose (Euro fails too in that case I suppose) but I'm not sure you could credit the GFS and company with the win either. Complex situation = complex model solutions. I suppose it's still possible for this to be the signature model failure of the 2010's but I'm extremely doubtful at this point. Ian sort of almost hooked me back in last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Correct. There are multiple elements each equally capable of directing this storm and which one is The one will not be evident until late Saturday morning Terrible post and reasoning. It is not one element that needs to be revealed tomorrow to arrive at the ultimate track. There is a massive amount of data and quantitative and physical analysis that underlie the established variables and synoptic set up that will take the system out to sea and away from EC landfall. There is no other solution other than something make believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 fixed LOL, pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 LOL, pretty much. I won't disagree with this....just wanted to get others thoughts. Even the lowly crash is ots soooo yeah, the Nam probably needs to be retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS and Euro are literally like 500 miles from landfall. Its time to close the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I would support a model only thread and any banter/satellite obs can go elsewhere. I think it certainly bears watching until it's safely running out to sea, but the wishcasting is a little silly at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GGEM is up... lets see if it continues to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Speed has more to do with it than direction IMO, it can drift NW at 3-5 mph all day and still miss the capture.....most models that have it captured have it getting north at a decent clip so if we were to see him speed up even on a NNE heading and get 150-200 miles north in the next 18 hrs then I think the chances of a capture and hit to the US go way up if he hangs out or drift slowly all day then the OTS maodels have it right......the GFS/Euro do not get him to the latitude of Miami for 30 more hrs and he is almost back to 70W at that time...looking at the WV loop I do have a hard time seeing that happen but how can the Euro/GFS be that wrong in this range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS and Euro are literally like 500 miles from landfall. Its time to close the thread. Yep. the fact that all of the ensembles agree means there's not a chance IMO. A bit of a jog to the NW isn't going to change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I would support a model only thread and any banter/satellite obs can go elsewhere. I think it certainly bears watching until it's safely running out to sea, but the wishcasting is a little silly at this stage. I don't see a ton of wishcasting in here but maybe that's just me. I do see a lot of people pointing out that it's not like astronomically far from a capture. It's unlikely but it's not raw distance from the coast that determines whether it gets captured. I think I agree with folks that it's close but that obviously doesn't mean it's going to happen. Glad our dry streak is over, though. Well and of course than there's Yoda that will post every model run until the storm is in Portugul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS and Euro are literally like 500 miles from landfall. Its time to close the thread. That actually seems like a good number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sure has the NW movement shape. I'm rooting for a total model failure.. well I guess the CMC and NAM win the day in that case. Hard to tell because of the wobbles, but it doesn't look like there is an east vector yet. If anything I'd say NW like you said. And as far as I know the FIM was the first to lock onto a LF and it hasn't budged since. WxBell should start receiving the 12Z run within the hour. Will it finally cave? We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Regardless of any model output, we are close enough now that you can you just watch the real-time flow of the trough. It is positioned as such now that it will force the core of Joaquin to spend the rest of its classified existence off the coast. I am not saying the two systems won't interact and cause huge problems with both wind and rain, I'm just saying that even if the tilted trough/cutoff ULL captures Joaquin, the phase would be so far over open water, mid-level forcing behind the trough would park the resulting phased low pressure system off the coast. That resulting low pressure system would certainly be large enough and close enough to wreak havoc with channeled surface winds and moisture inland between it and the blocking high to the north, but if I we're still latching on to the idea of a hurricane hooking inland and making landfall at this point, I'd be grasping at a bad model run, at straws, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The thought that keeps drifting through my head is: Is a fully tropical hurricane likely to be actually captured by a cold-core upper low, or are they more likely to "bounce" off of each other? Sandy was transitioning well before it got "caught", hence the idea of it being captured seems to make sense to me much more than a capture of the ragingly tropical Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The thought that keeps drifting through my head is: Is a fully tropical hurricane likely to be actually captured by a cold-core upper low, or are they more likely to "bounce" off of each other? Sandy was transitioning well before it got "caught", hence the idea of it being captured seems to make sense to me much more than a capture of the ragingly tropical Joaquin.On a truly scientific and serious note this crossed my mind as well. There is no ETT going on right now that would make Joaquin anywhere near the characteristics of Sandy. The cold low couldn't capture Joaquin I honestly believe, even if we do get a favorable vector. Ian's right it has that look but I just would expect more of the bounce as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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