Wonderdog Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The reason the vast majority of people are in this forum is to monitor weather events, most especially special, historic events. It's natural then for us to have a keen interest in this storm. It doesn't mean anyone is hoping for a disaster for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not operationally, but a bunch of people are working on it in the research community. It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC during Isabel, where the power lines are underground. That storm is the *only* time in the ~8 years I lived in that area where my power went out (for approximately 12 hours). I wonder if the heavy rains shorted something out. Of course, since moving to MoCo, the power goes out with a rustle of leaves! Well, that's not fair, and that has improved compared to a few years ago when it sure seemed that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is just beating down the Turks and Caicos at 48. 949mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is just beating down the Turks and Caicos at 48. 949mb. Seems quite a bit south, no? But that's been the Euro's bag all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems quite a bit south, no? But that's been the Euro's bag all along. Look at the storm, diving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems quite a bit south, no? But that's been the Euro's bag all along. Maybe a bit further, but a lot of the models go to 24°N, which is where the euro is at 48. Touch west of the others perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Going NE at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro still says nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not 100% sure but it looks like the euro is showing interaction with Ida's remnants and tugging it N-NE instead of getting sucked in by the ULL in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Poor NHC, I do not envy them at all. 18z/0z are a big deal. 12z GFS and co. at least indicated they're open to moving further south. Too much more and they'll flip to Euro's kick-back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a pretty difficult statistic to predict, though, as we've seen across the area. Variables range from how the utilities trimmed trees to when was the last weak-tree-clearing event (Derecho for us) to wind direction to soil conditions. Sandy beat Isabel handily at IAD wind-wise and beat Isabel's gusts at DCA, but there was of course nowhere near the level of outages as Isabel. All of that makes it interesting research. That's a lot of info to put into a model, but there are certainly ways to come to a reasonable estimate for those things which are hard to get quantifiable measurements on (tree trimming, tree-clearing events, etc.) and definitely ways to get good estimate on soil conditions and the like. It's like trying to model patterns of life. There are so many different pieces of the puzzle to put together, but a quality product would be incredibly useful, so that's a good reason to put the research in. On topic: Ummm...I hope we don't get too much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Significant rainfall still on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. How much rain does it give us this week even with the OTS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. 100% agree...looking at all the players on the field the Euro solution is the most plausible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. It's going to be a pretty impressive meltdown by either to Euro or everything else. Having the UKMET on our side has to help the argument for an E coast impact but Euro is really holding tight here. I would have expected a bigger move towards the E coast camp tbh. Pretty much a model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How much rain does it give us this week even with the OTS solution? looks like about 1.5-3" most spots locally in DC/Balt region.. more near coast. zzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC during Isabel, where the power lines are underground. That storm is the *only* time in the ~8 years I lived in that area where my power went out (for approximately 12 hours). I wonder if the heavy rains shorted something out. Of course, since moving to MoCo, the power goes out with a rustle of leaves! Well, that's not fair, and that has improved compared to a few years ago when it sure seemed that way! Potomac flood and debris stopped 50 feet short of my home after Isabel. Neighbors and friends lost everything except clothes on their backs in that storm. My worst power loss here was post derecho. Went thru a few typhoons in the Philippines last few years. Seeing a poor and developing country get hit is eye opening. Tropical systems are fascinating and fun to track. I prefer the eastern envelope of solutions to verify. But as others have said it doesn't matter what you root for, it will do what it does. Hope everyone comes thru ok, here and if you have coastal property or other interests in the line of fire. Really bad timing on top of the recent rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. Wasn't the 00z EURO mostly by itself when compared with the 00z EPS members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It will be an interesting 5pm discussion from NHC. I wonder if they will split the difference on the track? They can't keep doing it, eventually they have to choose a solution. Incredibly tough decision at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's going to be a pretty impressive meltdown by either to Euro or everything else. Having the UKMET on our side has to help the argument for an E coast impact but Euro is really holding tight here. I would have expected a bigger move towards the E coast camp tbh. Pretty much a model war. This is pretty cool. It's hard to discount so much guidance bringing this thing into the East Coast, but the Euro has been a rock with this kicking-out-to-sea scenario for the past...what...four or five runs? The king v. the plebes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hugging the Euro when it's on its own (especially when its on it's own vis-a-vis the UKMET) is generally a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 looks like about 1.5-3" most spots locally in DC/Balt region.. more near coast. zzzz. Any PRE rainfall down into the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is pretty cool. It's hard to discount so much guidance bringing this thing into the East Coast, but the Euro has been a rock with this kicking-out-to-sea scenario for the past...what...four or five runs? The king v. the plebes... Precisely why NHC has taken a consensus of both with their track/cone. Not as far south, and not completely OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hugging the Euro when it's on its own (especially when its on it's own vis-a-vis the UKMET) is generally a bad idea. Hugging any model when it's on its own is a bad idea. I have no idea what the Euro shows. I'm just going off of what everyone else is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hopefully something was learned from 1/27/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Any PRE rainfall down into the Carolinas? Yes, through most of south Carolina and Western North Carolina. (6-10" generally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hugging the Euro when it's on its own (especially when its on it's own vis-a-vis the UKMET) is generally a bad idea. After Sandy, its hard to ignore the EC... but then again, after the "Blizzard that wasn't" back in January, its also hard to sign off on it when its by itself. It may be handling the interaction better than the rest, but its hard to say just yet. Better to get people thinking about it and start raising alarm bells now, than to wait until the EC jumps on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well... I'm getting more tempted to toss all the other guidance in favor of the Euro. I think we all need to see a couple more 500 mb runs. If you check out where I placed the solid arrow, the 500 mb flow is blocky in nature. Ida is way east and not much of an influence. This is of course contingent on the GFS having a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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