Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And the nam has fully phased aiming at nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ahhh, the NAM. What would life be without it? More predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM going to make landfall on EC again, but a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And the nam has fully phased aiming at nc No just a matter of time before all the other models fall in line. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ETA: LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deacon523 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's as if Joaquin is the eraser brush in Photoshop trying to get rid of that island from the canvas. Right all this talk of wobble and tracks and OTS predictions, meanwhile that storm has been parked on top of the Bahamas. They wish it would go OTS, or hit the EC, or anywhere other than where it is. Have there been any reports from on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Really feel for anyone on those islands... they've had sustained Cat 3+ hurricane conditions for over 24hrs now... Awesome shot from the ISS... https://twitter.com/StationCDRKelly/status/649952627468337152 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM actually ends up bouncing it off OBX in a counter-clockwise motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM actually ends up bouncing it off OBX in a counter-clockwise motion. So it goes inland and where does it exit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Really feel for anyone on those islands... they've had sustained Cat 3+ hurricane conditions for over 24hrs now... Awesome shot from the ISS... https://twitter.com/StationCDRKelly/status/649952627468337152 there is a 100 mile radius of 74+, and a much smaller area of cat3 winds. Most on the islands have not experienced these winds for that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nam= fullphase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So it goes inland and where does it exit? Doesn't really go inland, just hits OBX, perhaps Ocracoke, and heads back out to sea. Nam= fullphase It's on its way back SE in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So if you believe the NAM (I know, it's a stretch), what causes it to stop the NE movement and hook it back toward the coast? Is it the ULL or something in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 some more fascinating NAM parent/nest differences here again. We've see that the parent allows the early capture and swings Joaquin back in towards the coast. The nest is further east and appears to be sending Joaquin along on his merry way out to sea, but the storm basically stops at f54 and starts moving back to the southwest in the final 6 hours (albeit a fair distance offshore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 some more fascinating NAM parent/nest differences here again. We've see that the parent allows the early capture and swings Joaquin back in towards the coast. The nest is further east and appears to be sending Joaquin along on his merry way out to sea, but the storm basically stops at f54 and starts moving back to the southwest in the final 6 hours (albeit a fair distance offshore). NAM could be on to something then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Now that I've taken a closer look - NAM doesn't actually make landfall, just comes very close to Ocracoke during its loop-de-loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 not necessarily. it's just strange to have such divergent synoptic solutions for a model that basically runs inside of the other model, such that they start from the same basic state. NAM could be on to something then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like Joaquin on the 48 hr 12z RGEM SLP map is started to be captured... yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So basically no one knows where it will end up and anyone who says they do is just model hugging or relying on their favorite forecaster's input. That's the analysis I'm taking away from this thread. The ones who are actually taking time to provide analysis, don't let the haters stop stop you because trust me they don't have a clue what they're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So basically no one knows where it will end up and anyone who says they do is just model hugging or relying on their favorite forecaster's input. That's the analysis I'm taking away from this thread. The ones who are actually taking time to provide analysis, don't let the haters stop stop you because trust me they don't have a clue what they're talking about. I think the Euro knows.. since like 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think the Euro knows.. since like 4 days ago. I think it's western shift last night shows it's not entirely sure though. That ridge E is still looking healthy- for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like a really key period is in the next few hours in terms of Joaquin's trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ive been around for a while and I realize the NAM misses big events more than it nails them, but why is everyone 100% sure the NAM is completely wrong? Flame/troll me all you want and im not saying its right but every so often I have seen the NAM score a huge win over the years. Its akin to betting a big football game...sometimes it seems too obvious and all the money goes to one side yet the house ends up winning. It happens. And nobody...,no one has mentioned the NAMs consistency. Its barely waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 SREF mean at 09z brings it dangerously close to E-NC and close to the Delmarva. Looking at enhanced satellite imagery, the center has passed 75W and still moving wnw to NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At hour 24 it's looking the same as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's heading NE pretty quickly by hr24 on the GFS, if something doesn't change soon, it's going to be out of the frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If the NAM is right I will stop posting... ...Actually I'll stop posting anyway cause I probably won't have power for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Latest recon pass suggests its accelerating to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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