Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Moving right over 75w nice eye http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We never wanted the storm to drift further west into the Bahamas. It doesn't help at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How come the past few nhc tracks show Joaquin moving NNE from the get-go (hour 1) yet it is still meandering around with little to no Northward drift? Shouldnt this have had a notable movement to the Northeast several updates ago based on forecasted track? Look, I dont doubt this will eventually change course and shoot out-to-sea but something has to give eventually right? Or does this already have a NE component to it but Im just not seeing it on satellite? Ive been reading since yesterday "any minute now". Still waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How come the past few nhc tracks show Joaquin moving NNE from the get-go (hour 1) yet it is still meandering around with little to no Northward drift? Shouldnt this have had a notable movement to the Northeast several updates ago based on forecasted track? Look, I dont doubt this will eventually change course and shoot out-to-sea but something has to give eventually right? Or does this already have a NE component to it but Im just not seeing it on satellite? Ive been reading since yesterday "any minute now". Still waiting. looks NNW to me based on the motion of that image..has to be less than 5mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 looks NNW to me based on the motion of that image..has to be less than 5mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Barely moving and water vapor shows dry air punching in from the NE. Might be starting to have some impact on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We never wanted the storm to drift further west into the Bahamas. It doesn't help at all.I don't know if that's necessarily true at least the west part. More we didn't want it to get so far south. West inherently helps to get it closer. South put it too close to the base of the incoming trough and westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 For the NHC track to work out, it needs to cut NNE to NE pretty damn fast. How can this happen with that ULL diving WSW towards it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know if that's necessarily true at least the west part. More we didn't want it to get so far south. West inherently helps to get it closer. South put it too close to the base of the incoming trough and westerlies. That's fair. NW might have helped in prior days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lay person/lurker Q... Are the Euro/OTS models from 24-48 hours ago verifying, or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lay person/lurker Q... Are the Euro/OTS models from 24-48 hours ago verifying, or not? still too early to know if the Euro has the exact track nailed. Only when it turns and goes N will the path be verifiable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A majority of the 00z EPS members were still West of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see what effects the Easterly winds are currently having to the Northeast of the center. That has been the mechanism that induced the Southwesterly movement that we've seen for the last several days. It's also bringing a lot of dry air with it as you can see, starting to restrict outflow to the NE of the center. I think it's possible that this will "block" any Easterly movement and cause the cyclone to move more poleward before eventually being caught by the trough over the SE US, inducing a solution that would result in an EC landfall. The furthest East guidance, mainly the Euro, indicates some type of Fujiwara motion as Joaquin interacts with it, sending it East while the ULL moves to the North. I am not confident that's the correct outcome, but it does have merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM already heading NNE by 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see what effects the Easterly winds are currently having to the Northeast of the center. That has been the mechanism that induced the Southwesterly movement that we've seen for the last several days. It's also bringing a lot of dry air with it as you can see, starting to restrict outflow to the NE of the center. I think it's possible that this will "block" any Easterly movement and cause the cyclone to move more poleward before eventually being caught by the trough over the SE US, inducing a solution that would result in an EC landfall. The furthest East guidance, mainly the Euro, induces some type of Fujiwara motion as Joaquin interacts with it, sending it East while the ULL moves to the North. I am not confident that's the correct outcome, but it does have merit. Hey brother. Great analysis. I'm thinking with the NAO flipping negative, the storm meandering and stronger than forecast, he's going to get blocked from going to ots. Thoughts? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM already heading NNE by 9. ...And NNW by 15. I really must stop doing NAM PBPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 no. just no. Great analysis from you as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hey brother. Great analysis. I'm thinking with the NAO flipping negative, the storm meandering and stronger than forecast, he's going to get blocked from going to ots. Thoughts? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A The ULL to the northeast appears to be moving almost on a Southwesterly heading, so in order for the Fujiwara motion to be realized, Joaquin would need to make a hard right turn soon. Even though we do have a consensus building, there are just so many moving parts. I won't be confident the East coast is safe until Joaquin has safely become embedded in the Westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The ULL to the northeast appears to be moving almost on a Southwesterly heading, so in order for the Fujiwara motion to be realized, Joaquin would need to make a hard right turn soon. Even though we do have a consensus building, there are just so many moving parts. I won't be confident the East coast is safe until Joaquin has safely become embedded in the Westerlies. Gratzi Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM will end up further Northeast this run because the ULL over the SE is slower to dig in than 06z. It's also a good deal Southeast of the 06z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see the slingshot to the NE at the end of the loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see the slingshot to the NE at the end of the loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif Could be, or it could just be another wobble. The 8AM fix had it moving NW. It's amazing how close the 00z ECMWF came to slingshoting this back towards the coast. It all just came down to the strength and position of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Normally you would look at a product like this and think a landfall would be a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM is phasing movement has been nnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see the slingshot to the NE at the end of the loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif a slingshot? more like a slight movement NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see the slingshot to the NE at the end of the loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif Looked more like a wobble. Most recent gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM is phasing movement has been nnw Yeah... To be fair, it actually seems to depend more on the LP over the FL pandhandle sinking further South to capture Joaquin, vs Joaquin actually being pushed NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not sure why we need yanksfan in here telling us stuff that we already know. You can only grasp at so many straws. NAM is a total outlier and the weenie wish cast is not helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see the slingshot to the NE at the end of the loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_06.gif It's as if Joaquin is the eraser brush in Photoshop trying to get rid of that island from the canvas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Normally you would look at a product like this and think a landfall would be a slam dunk. Agree completely. I guess the storm is just slightly out of position with the ULL to the west. But man is it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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