RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 72 is a significant move west for the first time in days. Edit: You can see its desire to want to be captured by the ULL. Not this run, but it moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's a good 150 miles west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's a good 150 miles west.... I think the important thing to note here is that this is the first of any kind of slight jog by the Euro for days now. How you interpret that is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looking over the Euro. That 78 hour panel is a bit interesting. Perhaps a shade to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It touches 40N a good ~250 miles west of where it did at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It jogs NE at 90 hours, so still not really close to hitting anyone...not even NF....moves much faster than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man, the NHC folks have to be pulling their hair out. They kept the track and cone left of the euro before this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's not going to LF the EC this run, but its a move to the west, and the first time the Euro has wavered in days. I don't really know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think the important thing to note here is that this is the first of any kind of slight jog by the Euro for days now. How you interpret that is another story... I interpret it as being hundreds of miles from making landfall anywhere in North America.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man, the NHC folks have to be pulling their hair out.Unless the models are converging into their cone. Our shoreline shape is part of American exceptionalisn. Hurricane highway just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I interpret it as being hundreds of miles from making landfall anywhere in North America.... I don't think it's all that far off from where the Euro was dropping it in recent days. I feel like Long Island Bahamas was a border zone. See if it moves much more. Everything else on the Euro had plenty of room to shift west a bit without concern of a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know what to make of it, other than it shows how sensitive a setup this is and that it potentially throws the door open for westward adjustments. I'm not sure if you can consider ~250 miles model noise. I know, I'm talking more about the uncertainty that this brings to the table. You had what seemed to be a consensus of OTS with the euro leading the way with unwavering runs, and now the 0z suite comes in more west. You wonder if this is a minor adjustment or the start of a swing in the other direction. ETA: for the record, I'm not saying its a trend. Just a bit more interesting than the last few runs lol If you accept this euro run then what it implies is OTS but more fetch and erosion/coastal flooding with the slight westward adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I interpret it as being hundreds of miles from making landfall anywhere in North America....NAO going negative (albeit slightly). Bermuda high attempting to build in. Joaquin continuing to strengthen. Ida looking increasingly likely to redevelop. El Nino continuing to strengthen. Computer models have their work cut out for them and they may just be picking up on the fact that Joaquin may be boxed in.. Edit: Joaquin moving a bit slower and ULL a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I interpret it as being hundreds of miles from making landfall anywhere in North America.... Fair enough. Still a bunch of runs to go. The fact that it showed any change at all is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's definitely a west shift but perhaps more consensus between the GFS and EC. I think overall they are closer to each other this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What if original GFS was right all along and Euro is the one late to the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here is a very crude drawing of 12z Euro vs 0z euro....Obviously 0z euro is the further west red line...should have used 2 different colors...superimposed over an old map from earlier that I had already drawn on so ignore the chicken scratch and ignore the cone...it's an old cone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Steering current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6Z GFS matches 0Z EC almost exactly so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6Z GFS matches 0Z EC almost exactly so far Yeah, maybe worth keeping an eye on if you're Cape Cod, but nothing for us in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There seems to be argument over what is a cat 4 and a cat 3. Wral (our local news) keeps saying it's at 130mph now, however the nhc says 135mph now????? this was even with the 5am update. NHC has a scale on their site that says 130 and 135 are cat 4. Just last night it was 130mph on Wral and NHC and both saying a cat 4.... So, how does Wral decide this morning it's a cat 3 at 130mph? It's like Wral uses the 2 saffir's I've seen at whim. Plus, Wral said all the models including the euro, came in east. Litterally, they never moved west during the night they said????? of course the prediction cone is still east. Can someone elaborate on this and help us out because I noticed a lot of people on social media asking the same question and some have been redacting and going back to cat 4 in their posts were earlier they say cat 3 mentioned. I noticed even a few news channels corrected themselves too. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There seems to be argument over what is a cat 4 and a cat 3. Wral (our local news) keeps saying it's at 130mph now, however the nhc says 135mph now????? this was even with the 5am update. NHC has a scale on their site that says 130 and 135 are cat 4. Just last night it was 130mph on Wral and NHC and both saying a cat 4.... So, how does Wral decide this morning it's a cat 3 at 130mph? It's like Wral uses the 2 saffir's I've seen at whim. Plus, Wral said all the models including the euro, came in east. Litterally, they never moved west during the night they said????? of course the prediction cone is still east. Can someone elaborate on this and help us out because I noticed a lot of people on social media asking the same question and some have been redacting and going back to cat 4 in their posts were earlier they say cat 3 mentioned. I noticed even a few news channels corrected themselves too. Thanks. Cat 3 is 111-129mph. Cat 4 : 130-156. The storm is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which tends to weaken the system temporarily. Other diagnostic tools likewise indicate the storm has leveled off and potentially weakened They were likely saying the storm has weakened to a cat 3 since the last official update. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 They are saying it is still 130mph though. As of a few minutes ago. I did see the post about ERC last night. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6Z GFS matches 0Z EC almost exactly so far Ray stop raining on our parade and go update your website! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ray stop raining on our parade and go update your website! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This storm is pretty much on 75w and still wobling Wnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This storm is pretty much on 75w and still wobling Wnw12z will be interesting Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 12z will be interesting Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Eh, there are now no landfalling 06Z GEFS members....less interesting now from that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Eh, there are now no landfalling 06Z GEFS members....less interesting now from that angle. As long as people are hoping for a landfall (and they sure are), they will find something interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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