cmichweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 sending it back into the gulf stream at the end maybe it'll have double major hurricane landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run.The differences were always very small. I don't necsarilly think it only has to do with the hurricane. If for some reason the trough digs more than expected etc you could go back to other solutions. Plus as a cat 4 it has helped build ridging aruound itself so its not necessarily feeling the pull east by the low south of Bermuda. There are a number of legitimate solutions that are not OTS still on the table. I guess we are in an age of modeling it shouldn't go back to a hit but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not for me Well, I only post the NAM when it shows snow for mby, so I know its limitations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 that's quite a sustained fetch implied by the nam for sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Sit back and look at the nhc track and then look at how far west the nam is. What a pos. it does so few things well that it is just chewing up node time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM's 72 hr track error is 428 miles... http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=modelerror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Watch the GFS/EURO trend west now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM's 72 hr track error is 428 miles... http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=modelerror Good enough, it doesn't make sense for any model to do that after it was previously OTS. The deep change starts early on, like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW... Steve DiMartino on Twitter: "As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west." https://mobile.twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/649763187986984960 Does he still think DC is going to get 12"+ all snow on 2/14/07? The NAM is like the Nationals, just playing out the season, throwing in a fist fight here or there, not letting you know what is coming next. But like the Nats, they both suck, and they're both done being useful. NAM and Euro are like Papelbon and Harper. One chokes and the other is the MVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Up to this point, the EC is beating all other models regsrding track accuracy of Joaquin at all time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RGEM ticking west but not NAM-like. We may have something here. The EC may be a great model but it can't forsee dynamics like ekman pumping in real-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 gfs coming in wester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GFS a tad west so far thru 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run. For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GFS a tad west so far thru 15 You guys probably think I'm joking but I'm not. Coming west. For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify. Back before we had advanced standards and models. We use the current baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Slightly west through 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well southeast of the NAM at 24 Edit: 39 hrs further west but still headed northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, 42 hours is slightly interesting, but idk if it will be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Between 42-45hrs it bumps NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Super close but not gonna cut it...West of the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If I were in Nassau I would start getting a wee bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's definitely west so far...not by that much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At 66 it looks like its really trying to come back but I don't think its happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching. Way more than worth watching. Look at the phase starting at hr54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joking aside it really isn't that far from missing at 63. It is significantly NW of 12z, and more interaction with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At 72 it's a decent step west. The window is closing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A good 100 miles farther West this run at 60...eyebrow raised Sent from my LG-V410 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What's 350 miles among friends. 18z top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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