PhineasC Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW... Steve DiMartino on Twitter: "As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west." https://mobile.twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/649763187986984960 Dude has always been a hypester. I remember late nights reading his posts regarding how the models were all missing this or that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pretty good right side momentum transfer with that I'm going to miss chatting with you all for a few weeks. Remember not to waste phone battery checking in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Make or break run for the NAM forever. Nothing can be this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm gonna go with break.... That is pretty sick, its got the Hugo bands going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That is pretty sick, its got the Hugo bands going. Nice thing about this run is that we won't have to wait long to know if it's going to verify - the track differences should be apparent by morning (or not!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm going to miss chatting with you all for a few weeks. Remember not to waste phone battery checking in here. A few weeks? I'll miss your presence on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 He is making a joke. No, Ian is always serious across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A few weeks? I'll miss your presence on here.I'm on a hill it should be ok. Plus I always said if I happened to get sucked up by a tornado it would be a fitting way to go. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquins I K E, 31 is now higher than Rita's, 29 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 He is making a joke.He knows. Anyway.. Who's got water vapor analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z NAM is an EC hit.... in NE SC In approx 57 hrs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Good ol nam taking it south of Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Water vapor...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Good ol nam taking it south of Myrtle Beach. NAM had Joaquin moving due north for much of its early run... barely was any easterly component to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z NAM is an EC hit.... in NE SC In approx 57 hrs too The only thing that makes that curious is that the 18z NAM was way out to see. The NAM is awful, but the fact it went back to a landfall scenario is curious. Also, the fact the 18z ensembles came back towards an east coast hit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Dude has always been a hypester. I remember late nights reading his posts regarding how the models were all missing this or that. I actually disagree... last year's March 21st storm he practically wrote it off because of surface temps... then we weltbulbed up here in PA and got 6 inches instead of his 1. He doesn't usually hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The only thing that makes that curious is that the 18z NAM was way out to see. The NAM is awful, but the fact it went back to a landfall scenario is curious. Also, the fact the 18z ensembles came back towards an east coast hit as well. Curious or proof that it's worse than even we can imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Curious or proof that it's worse than even we can imagine. Both Let's see what the 00z RGEM does, if it follows NAM idea then we could see a W shift tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Water vapor...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn-animated.gif you mean IR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The only thing that makes that curious is that the 18z NAM was way out to see. The NAM is awful, but the fact it went back to a landfall scenario is curious. Also, the fact the 18z ensembles came back towards an east coast hit as well. I think the 18z was trending toward an EC landfallbut like everybody says, the NAM is not to be trusted this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not totally sold this is finished. Big healthy storms aren't super simple to move quickly one way or another. See where it settles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That run of the nam is the wackiest thing I've ever seen. It makes landfall in central SC then hugs the coast SW to GA while everyone on the coast sits in the northern eyewall. Gold star nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM can't even agree with itself...4km version is just as OTS as the ECMWF through 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not totally sold this is finished. Big healthy storms aren't super simple to move quickly one way or another. See where it settles. No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Trough going negative in the big picture... saved image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 you mean IR? Ahh yes, IR loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 The eye of Joaquin contracted in satellite imagery late this afternoon, but has become obscured by cirrus clouds since that time. Recent microwave imagery and aircraft observations have not shown any indications of an eyewall replacement, but the intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The aircraft has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 123 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of 116 kt, which support an initial wind speed of 115 kt. Satellite images show that the outflow is well established over the hurricane and some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. Joaquin is forecast to encounter increasing southwesterly shear in 2 to 3 days, which is expected to cause some weakening during that time. However, Joaquin is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance in the short-term, and is close to the intensity consensus throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Recent reconnaissance fixes suggest that Joaquin has turned westward and slowed down, with an initial motion of 260/3. The mid- to upper-level ridge that has been steering Joaquin southwestward is expected to quickly weaken overnight while a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States deepens and cuts off. This should cause Joaquin to turn northward on Friday, and move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed Friday night and Saturday. The model envelope has again shifted eastward, with the GFDL and NAVGEM models now joining the other dynamical models which keep Joaquin offshore of the United States east coast. This has required another eastward shift to the NHC forecast, but it still lies to the west of the multi-model consensus and the most recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. The updated track is closest to the GFS ensemble mean. Additional eastward adjustments could be required to the official forecast overnight. Surface and reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Joaquin's wind field has expanded during the past 24 hours. The initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted outward accordingly. The increase in size has resulted in the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for eastern Cuba where wind gusts above tropical-storm- force have already been observed. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well into Friday. 2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away from the United States east coast and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be decreasing. However, the threat of impacts in Bermuda has increased and a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for that island on Friday. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 22.9N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 24.7N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 26.6N 73.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 33.4N 70.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 42.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Doing the typical NAM thing, being wrong and trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I actually disagree... last year's March 21st storm he practically wrote it off because of surface temps... then we weltbulbed up here in PA and got 6 inches instead of his 1. He doesn't usually hype. You go to Ursinus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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