GramaxRefugee Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Okracoke has mandatory evacuations. (I don't necessarily disagree with this, but)...interesting they don't have a TS watch, or anything beyond a SCA. Ditto points south; last I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deacon523 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Okracoke has mandatory evacuations. I can't imagine any of the locals will leave, the consensus there tends to be that all the bad storms miss them and hit Hatteras, they'll be drinking beer at Howard's and riding it out most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Too confusing. Government has to cater to the LCD. As well they should. There's no reason to expect or require the general public to understand the finer details of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Look at the pull starting on the NW and W side http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hifloat2_None_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 (I don't necessarily disagree with this, but)...interesting they don't have a TS watch, or anything beyond a SCA. Ditto points south; last I looked. Ocracoke is incredibly difficult to egress under BAU circumstances. This is a solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Look at the pull starting on the NW and W side http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hifloat2_None_anim.gif If I lived in FL, I would be paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Look at the pull starting on the NW and W side http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hifloat2_None_anim.gif what pull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Okracoke has mandatory evacuations. It's October. They only have to evacuate like 100 people. North Carolina gets cold people. This isn't Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's October. They only have to evacuate like 100 people. North Carolina gets cold people. This isn't Florida. This is just wrong this is prime fishing season for a lot of the OBX and there are tons of people down there, granted its not late Aug but we go down the first few weekends of Oct every year for fishing and thousands still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 SREF 2 areas of LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is just wrong this is prime fishing season for a lot of the OBX and there are tons of people down there, granted its not late Aug but we go down the first few weekends of Oct every year for fishing and thousands still do. Yes. The prior post wasn't even close. I know many who go in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's October. They only have to evacuate like 100 people. North Carolina gets cold people. This isn't Florida.Many more than that, residents, visitors and day fisherman, and the occasional nudist.It's slower than tenman shuffling down the sidewalk in his black socks and shorts. And most are in large SUVs, so the ferries get packed quick. You don't want to be waiting for the next boat while a degrading cat 5 decides to go against recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 SREF 2 areas of LPAnd how do these 2 LPs make you feel?/weathertherapy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And how do these 2 LPs make you feel? /weathertherapy Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is a big storm.. the Bahamas are hurricane hardened but I wonder what we'll see when it clears. Only Floyd, Andrew and 1929 had lower pressures and this is the deepest recorded in that part of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deacon523 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes. The prior post wasn't even close. I know many who go in October A sunny day in October is a great time to hang out at Smacknally's and watch the charter fishermen come in, I'd gladly be there now (well, maybe not now, but on a non-potential weather disaster weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Forget Joaquin for a moment--- this is an *incredible* graphic. Where is it from? Homebrew graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Homebrew graphic. A little googling answered my question about IBTrACS too, so I deleted my post.... I wonder why Andrew's 922 mb at Homestead wasn't in the database. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like NW movement may be starting? Convection has pushed to the NW and the eye has also moved a tad NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 East shift in the short cycle guidance... http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al112015/track_early/aal11_2015100200_track_early.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like NW movement may be starting? Convection has pushed to the NW and the eye has also moved a tad NW. NAM somewhat corroborates this. Interesting trends tonight. Early cycle guidance is mostly from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Topper Shutt teased that he will show a new track at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like NW movement may be starting? Convection has pushed to the NW and the eye has also moved a tad NW.It looks like it's spinning hard and wobbling. They start doing weird stuff when they become powerful, heat breathing monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like it's spinning hard and wobbling. They start doing weird stuff when they become powerful, heat breathing monsters. Ekman pumping ftw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport Ekman transport, part of Ekman motion theory first investigated in 1902 by Vagn Walfrid Ekman, is the term given for the 90° net transport of the surface layer (the layer affected by wind) by wind forcing. This phenomenon was first noted by Fridtjof Nansen, who recorded that ice transport appeared to occur at an angle to the wind direction during his Arctic expedition during the 1890s.[1] The direction of transport is dependent on the hemisphere: in the northern hemisphere, transport occurs at 90° clockwise from wind direction, while in the southern hemisphere it occurs at a 90° counterclockwise.[2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW... Steve DiMartino on Twitter: "As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west." https://mobile.twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/649763187986984960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM looks like 922 into Norfolk and moving northwest at 65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM looks like 922 into Norfolk and moving northwest at 65 mph. Going with Myrtle Beach. Shades of Erika in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Going with Myrtle Beach. Shades of Erika in the opposite direction. Too far north I think... perhaps SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM looks like 922 into Norfolk and moving northwest at 65 mph. Pretty good right side momentum transfer with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Going with Myrtle Beach. Shades of Erika in the opposite direction. Its brethren all hit the US. Since people are proclaiming it dead no less than 24 hours after proclaiming it near certainty it would make for a fun tale at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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