yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Where do you have it out already? AmWx model center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am guessing last minute capture? Here is the GEFS mean from hrs 66 to 84... Individs should be.... interesting... 66 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=66 72 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=72 78 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=78 84 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 AmWx model center That was a big jump west on the mean, must have several land hitting members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, there must be wildly divergent members between 72 and 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This site having issues? Starting to get errors here and there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Vis loop into sunset http://imgur.com/S6wGmLd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 123 kt flight level, 116 kt SFMR in SW quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am guessing last minute capture? Here is the GEFS mean from hrs 66 to 84... Individs should be.... interesting... 66 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=66 72 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=72 78 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=78 84 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=84 It sez we need a subscription to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It sez we need a subscription to see it Individual members are out on tropical tidbits. Quite a few hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks poised to strengthen more.. outflow is awesome at the moment. It could still get cat 5 perhaps. It's been sitting but that water is warm pretty deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18z HWRF threw on the brakes as well around hr 75... its coming back west for a while... but doesn't make LF... it did come back closer to the coast than the 12z run did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks poised to strengthen more.. outflow is awesome at the moment. It could still get cat 5 perhaps. It's been sitting but that water is warm pretty deep. Ian although the water is bathtub warm in that region isn't still relatively shallow that close to land? I would think it's very slow movement and shallow water depth would allow for a lot of mixing/upwelling to take place perhaps capping it's max intensity. Wouldn't one rather see it moving slowly over gulf waters offshore if max intensity were to be reached? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am guessing last minute capture? Here is the GEFS mean from hrs 66 to 84... Individs should be.... interesting... 66 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=66 72 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=72 78 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=78 84 -- http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=18z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=84 Looks almost like a knee jerk reaction from the major shift..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, the GEFS have trended away from the recurve idea. NE US may need to watch this judging by the hurricane model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ian although the water is bathtub warm in that region isn't still relatively shallow that close to land? I would think it's very slow movement and shallow water depth would allow for a lot of mixing/upwelling to take place perhaps capping it's max intensity. Wouldn't one rather see it moving slowly over gulf waters offshore if max intensity were to be reached? Thanks The region of the Bahamas the core is over right now is deeper than 500 meters. That location also has a deep 26º isotherm as well; 75 meters down. I'm sure it is upwelling, but the eyewall would have to sit over the same location for longer than it is currently forecasted and modeled to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ian although the water is bathtub warm in that region isn't still relatively shallow that close to land? I would think it's very slow movement and shallow water depth would allow for a lot of mixing/upwelling to take place perhaps capping it's max intensity. Wouldn't one rather see it moving slowly over gulf waters offshore if max intensity were to be reached? Thanks Pretty sure the water east of the Bahamas where the hurricane is currently is very deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, the GEFS have trended away from the recurve idea. NE US may need to watch this judging by the hurricane model trends. I wouldn't say that. There are a handful of SE/MA landfalls, but also a lot of those by obx are the ull. Still a big group ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wouldn't say that. There are a handful of SE/MA landfalls, but also a lot of those by obx are the ull. Still a big group ots. Agree. Couple members go hog wild with the ULL. Vast majority are ots with J but a couple sure are pretty if you are rooting for destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at the RaleighWx's GEFS individ members, I count 8 of the 20 make LF in the NC to Ocean City vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at the RaleighWx's GEFS individ members, I count 8 of the 20 make LF in the NC to Ocean City vicinity how many were there in the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In case people haven't located this part of tropical tidbits, here's the link to a whole bunch of individual storm resources: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ To answer the 12Z compared to 18Z GFS Ensemble members question: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN BATTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looking at the RaleighWx's GEFS individ members, I count 8 of the 20 make LF in the NC to Ocean City vicinity Still less than half. It may not even move another mile westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looking at the RaleighWx's GEFS individ members, I count 8 of the 20 make LF in the NC to Ocean City vicinity 12z had none or 1, can't remember. It's a massive change for this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still less than half. It may not even move another mile westward. More than 12z had by a good amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Gym, I think the most interesting part of the 12/18z comparison is the quite noticeable shift away from the NE jog as the storm starts gaining latitude. Not saying it means anything other than potentially a shift in early track guidance. The storm is a damn beast right now. It will do whatever it wants. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still less than half. It may not even move another mile westward. That GEFS comparison between 12z and 18z is if nothing else, surprising. And in the meantime, J continues to meander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So the farther west Joaquin gets before moving north the greater chance it has of being captured? Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Okracoke has mandatory evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Further south now than even euro was showing, no? If so, any chance this get left behind rather than kicked ots or pulled north? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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