famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 For now the public disseminaton of out to sea info is as irresponsible as last night's up the Bay characterization. No its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFDL definitely still on board for EC landfall. No solution should be counted out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No its not. I would say that a 250 mile shift east in 18 hours by the NHC does not inspire confidence. Sometimes it's just best to say "we do not know right now" rather than post a drawing of a hurricane moving up the Chesapeake Bay with a bunch of small print disclaimers scattered about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No its not. Agreed. Although people should be prepared for the possibility of a change, the writing was on the wall last night during the 00z GFS when it jumped so drastically toward the Euro. Yeah, it was fun to look at, but after the Euro 00z run held stead fast the probability of this going OTS jumped greatly. With that being said, were still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would say that a 250 mile shift east in 18 hours by the NHC does not inspire confidence. Sometimes it's just best to say "we do not know right now" rather than post a drawing of a hurricane moving up the Chesapeake Bay with a bunch of small print disclaimers scattered about. Reporting that the trend is for an out-to-sea storm is *not* irresponsible. Its good meteorology. Yes, the "scare" that we could've had a storm impact nearby is not going to inspire confidence, but quickly correcting to a more realistic solution *will*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would say that a 250 mile shift east in 18 hours by the NHC does not inspire confidence. Sometimes it's just best to say "we do not know right now" rather than post a drawing of a hurricane moving up the Chesapeake Bay with a bunch of small print disclaimers scattered about. Well, the Euro has known for 2 days now Everything else is just playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wish we had storm mode for hurricanes like we do during winter. Some of these posters need time outs. Simply making a statement off the cuff about how a storm looks or model hugging or wishcasting does very little for the discussion. Please bring some basis for your claims or don't post. When you have the Euro, GFS, and a host of other tropical models lined up for an OTS pass, then it is a pretty good bet its going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cone system is probably outdated tho it still works in most cases. I haven't totally understood all their moves but I think NHC has done all they can in this case given their constraints. The key points were a huge plus.. good to see them doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cone system is probably outdated tho it still works in most cases. I haven't totally understood all their moves but I think NHC has done all they can in this case given their constraints. The key points were a huge plus.. good to see them doing that. Agreed, cone is very deceiving when there's diverging solutions, needs to be a double cone with a gap in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey, if nothing else this was an awesome preview for the winter months. I'm ready for some MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed, cone is very deceiving when there's diverging solutions, needs to be a double cone with a gap in the middle. Too confusing. Government has to cater to the LCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cone system is probably outdated tho it still works in most cases. I haven't totally understood all their moves but I think NHC has done all they can in this case given their constraints. The key points were a huge plus.. good to see them doing that. I think people should be paying more attention to the key points then the cone/maps. The problem is every media outlet takes that stupid map verbatim and proclaims impending doom to the masses without reading the key points...or caring about them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too confusing. Government has to cater to the LCD. I believe you're probably right about this. If they put two cones people would be like OMG it's going to turn into 2 hurricanes and then twitter would blow up with EPIC DOUBLE STORM OF 2015 WILL DESTROY WORLD hashtags within like 5 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cone system is probably outdated tho it still works in most cases. I haven't totally understood all their moves but I think NHC has done all they can in this case given their constraints. The key points were a huge plus.. good to see them doing that. Honestly, I think they need to stop showing the center line on their maps. Another thing they could do is increase/decrease the cone size depending on the confidence of their forecast. Sure, they've done GREAT writing their discussions, but the public, unfortunately, really only cares/sees the forecast cone/center line. As far as our job goes, we NEED to relay to the public what's going to happen if it does this (left side of forecast cone) or that (right side of forecast cone) and to say/show that there are some models that still go out to sea or come inland. That's what I've tried to do over the past few days in my forecasts and it seems to be resonating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I had a friend in SNE who texted me about media caused panic up there. It's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I had a friend in SNE who texted me about media caused panic up there. And thats a shame really. While it's not a good look for the weather community, the NHC has to do their job. They cant control the media hysteria that comes with irresponsible reporting/comprehension of the discussions/graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Honestly, I think they need to stop showing the center line on their maps. Another thing they could do is increase/decrease the cone size depending on the confidence of their forecast. Sure, they've done GREAT writing their discussions, but the public, unfortunately, really only cares/sees the forecast cone/center line. As far as our job goes, we NEED to relay to the public what's going to happen if it does this (left side of forecast cone) or that (right side of forecast cone) and to say/show that there are some models that still go out to sea or come inland. That's what I've tried to do over the past few days in my forecasts and it seems to be resonating. Yeah doing away with the line would be a good idea. I don't really know what the alternative to a cone is other than maybe just a "spray" with percentages within it or something. Along the lines of FACETS or something. It is also unfortunate they are bound to historical error in the cone size rather than storm to storm confidence. NHC is an easy scapegoat but it is up to the media and local officials to properly convey the message as much as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Something doesn't quite seem right with this storm, if ever there was one to go off on a totally different path than any model solution it would be this one, looking at the weakness in the upper level steering features to its west, I don't think you could even rule out a run towards Florida or Georgia until it has definitely turned north. And what if it just starts meandering and loses the window ahead of it now? It could still be down around the Bahamas or western Cuba at day five. Having said that, I would guess North Carolina for a landfall if it was a one-shot money sort of guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 An oldy, but a goody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah doing away with the line would be a good idea. I don't really know what the alternative to a cone is other than maybe just a "spray" with percentages within it or something. Along the lines of FACETS or something. It is also unfortunate they are bound to historical error in the cone size rather than storm to storm confidence. NHC is an easy scapegoat but it is up to the media and local officials to properly convey the message as much as anyone. Cmon Ian. You think the average non weather nerd will understand a spray probability map? LMFAO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did I mention DT is a god met among men? Sent from my iPhone https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/649586354112843778 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 An oldy, but a goody. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cmon Ian. You think the average non weather nerd will understand a spray probability map? LMFAO Sent from my iPhone In visuals maybe. In day to day forecasts it's tricky but probability is still generally the best answer., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC should just post the euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS had the phase and dropped it. Very delicate storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC should just post the euro track Or the GFS track, they're the same thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah doing away with the line would be a good idea. I don't really know what the alternative to a cone is other than maybe just a "spray" with percentages within it or something. Along the lines of FACETS or something. It is also unfortunate they are bound to historical error in the cone size rather than storm to storm confidence. NHC is an easy scapegoat but it is up to the media and local officials to properly convey the message as much as anyone. Spray percentages would be a decent idea as long as meteorologists/weather enthusiasts are able to convey it properly. As to your final sentence: YUP!!! It's as much, if not more, our job to convey the message to the public. The NHC has done wonderful work writing their discussions, as mentioned, but we have to be the ones to give it to the public in a conversational, easy-to understand way. Which hasn't been terribly difficult because of the Key Messages (something I LOVE they're doing, btw) they have been doing. Hell, if a meteorologist really wanted to, just read straight off that when talking about Joaquin. Wholeheartedly agree. All day today and yesterday I have had to tell people not to focus on the center point of the map. I think people would be a bit more thoughtful about the possibilities without a center point. Wishful thinking perhaps. In addition, isn't the forecast cone based on historical error and not confidence? That seems to be a big mistake during events like this one. The problem is that the public might not accept a 5 day cone from the outer banks to Bermuda. Yes, as Ian mentioned, the forecast cone is based on historical error. A valid point you bring up is the fact the public won't like it if a cone goes from the Outer Banks to Bermuda. That's where Ian's "spray" percentages could come in handy. Then again, they would hopefully have the center portion of the cone with the higher percentages with lower percentages near the sides. Which, is basically what they do already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z GFDL is mind blowing after looking at it more closely because it is slower than 06z and still ends up landfalling. I could be reaching but the Z500mb show a situation with a pumped ridge in response to broader cyclonic vorticity from Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Um, 18z GEFS mean says hold on please... would someone check it as well to make sure I am not seeng things? What the hell is going on after 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Um, 18z GEFS mean says hold on please... would someone check it as well to make sure I am not seeng things? What the hell is going on after 72? Where do you have it out already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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