Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS ens mean pretty close to the op for landfall area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the euro holds serve its going to get awfully interesting since landfall is speeding up per the GFS and watches would have to be considered. Does the NWS contemplate a forecast map depicting potential power failures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 but where do you issue watches? Euro is for the fishes, while GFS is a NC hit... somewhere in the middle? I would not want to be a forecaster for this storm, that is for sure. All of coastal eastern NC to VA cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Keep in mind the UKMET is a pretty skillful tropical track model, and was the BEST individual Global at 120 hours in 2014. Really should get VASTLY more attention than the Canadian, unfortunately reverse seems to be true in a lot of the regional Joaquin threads (particularly further north filled with snow weenies). Also in terms of individual models it shouldn't be a binary GFS/EC debate. Two out of three, including the UKMET, matters more. Finally, the AEMI (average of the GFS ensembles) is more important than the OP GFS, and more accurate (and becoming increasingly more accurate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS ens mean pretty close to the op for landfall area. At 96, the mean has Joaquin near OBX (just W or SW)... at 102 and 108 its just sitting in NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yikes, stalls until 120, then slowly pulls out over Delmarva until 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yikes, stalls until 120, then slowly pulls out over Delmarva until 132. please list what model you are talking about here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 please list what model you are talking about here. Thanks. GFS ENS Mean I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Aye. HWRF appears to like a Hatteras/Kitty Hawk landfall about 90 hours out, motion WNW/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the Euro comes in like everything else NHC is going to have to make a drastic shift of their cone. Right now it looks like model consensus is the the left boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Does the NWS contemplate a forecast map depicting potential power failures? No such product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the Euro comes in like everything else NHC is going to have to make a drastic shift of their cone. Right now it looks like model consensus is the the left boundary. You gotta think that the Euro is one of, if not the only reason behind NHC's cone being so far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You gotta think that the Euro is one of, if not the only reason behind NHC's cone being so far east. Yeah they said so in their last discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No such product Yeah I'd think that would be more up to local and state emergency managers to derive a product like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You gotta think that the Euro is one of, if not the only reason behind NHC's cone being so far east. Ensembles factor in too. Still having a bunch from each model suite go OTS cannot be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah, something MEMA would produce in Maryland or equivalent agencies in other States. Yeah I'd think that would be more up to local and state emergency managers to derive a product like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm guessing power outages will be particularly bad with all the preceding rainfall.. the ground will be soaked by the time this thing rolls in... trees are going to go down a lot easier, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm guessing power outages will be particularly bad with all the preceding rainfall.. the ground will be soaked by the time this thing rolls in... trees are going to go down a lot easier, I would think. That's my point. If this comes together with the left leaning track, a lot more people will be affected by power failures than by wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the Euro comes in like everything else NHC is going to have to make a drastic shift of their cone. Right now it looks like model consensus is the the left boundary.NHC rarely makes big shifts. Doubt they would move all the way to a gfs type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like the guidance overall is trending south, HRWF also took it a bit south at 06z. Would still be devastating. We shouldn't be "rooting" for this storm. Let's be real, OTS would be the best scenario. I don't think anyone's rooting for it, but I'll be the first to tell you that I'd much rather a different state get hit than my state getting the worst of it. I know that sounds terrible, and OTS would be ideal, but it feels like at this point, OTS is looking less and less likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If we have a chance anything less than a big hit would be sad. Power is for losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think anyone's rooting for it, but I'll be the first to tell you that I'd much rather a different state get hit than my state getting the worst of it. I know that sounds terrible, and OTS would be ideal, but it feels like at this point, OTS is looking less and less likely... Nothings a lock yet. Yes, were seeing some consensus, but theres still a long way to go. OTS doesn't seem likely, but still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 2pm EST - Winds up to 85, Pressure down to 970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z HWRF ticked slightly north, quite strong (949 mb) at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 2pm EST - Winds up to 85, Pressure down to 970 968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No such product Not operationally, but a bunch of people are working on it in the research community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GEFS still spread pretty far. Couple out to seas, a couple into SNE, and a mashup of variations of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 968 This could get scary real quick considering its still not in the most favorable environment related to shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No change to track at 2pm. Wouldn't expect a change until the full update at 5 plus seeing what the EURO does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the Euro initialized at 977mb. Not that it really matters that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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