yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Does look like a wobble or two SW in the last few frames... but mostly a W movement in the past 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Guess MD, VA and NJ didn't learn from Florida's mistake during the Erika debacle. Wonderful...state of emergency for three puddles and a gust to 6. Maybe a few ant piles might need a swift water rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's not that you commented, it's that you just keep repeating it.Exactly. I haven't made a single post rooting for anything and since tropical forecasting isn't really something I have expertise on I just shut up and read since I have nothing of value to add. It's just annoying to read the same posts over and over by the same few people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wonder if it will get to 75 west before any north movement If so, that is west of the NHC track. imo, it's going to make it. Would have to start slowing down to not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoNerd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey all, quick question: at initialization, have the models been accurately depicting the placement of the trough feature over the CONUS? The position/movement of the hurricane is certainly important, but the real life location of the trough vs. how it's modeled is also an important variable to consider. Thanks! I posted a similar question earlier but didn't get a response. Did the Euro get the trough forecast more correct than the others, earlier? (And maybe the GFS would have only much later without the additional soundings?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Short range spread... http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al112015/track_early/aal11_2015100118_track_early.png Late cycle guidance spread http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2015/al112015/track_late/aal11_2015100112_track_late.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 imo, it's going to make it. Would have to start slowing down to not. And if it does ? I think much more west of that and someone on coast is going to get scraped at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 even the HRRR had pretty much nothing in its early runs before catching on during the morning I saw that and never looked back, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And if it does ? I think much more west of that and someone on coast is going to get scraped at least. Problem is these storms can hook pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And if it does ? I think much more west of that and someone on coast is going to get scraped at least. I'd say if it gains latitude along with getting farther west, then landfall becomes much more likely. Just getting to 75W, I'm not really sure how much it would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html thanks. saw that yesterday, but the loop was in/out for whatever reason. seems better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So much wishcasting in this thread and radar hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I posted a similar question earlier but didn't get a response. Did the Euro get the trough forecast more correct than the others, earlier? (And maybe the GFS would have only much later without the additional soundings?) Euro never weakened a upper low to the east of the storm...I believe were some of the remnants of IDA. That helped force the system south while the trough kicked it out. Euro was first to lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro never weakened a upper low to the east of the storm...I believe were some of the remnants of IDA. That helped force the system south while the trough kicked it out. Euro was first to lock this in. NHC upgraded that system to a 40-70% chance of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lookin hot. hopefully it clear on vis before sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lookin hot. hopefully it clear on vis before sunset Wow. That is terrifyingly beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NAM, FWIW, is creeping more and more OTS @48 with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lookin hot. hopefully it clear on vis before sunset This is some avatar quality material right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pinhole eye, we can do sub 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NAM, FWIW, is creeping more and more OTS @48 with each run. The 18z NAM shows a landfall near OBX, not that it matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z NAM shows a landfall near OBX, not that it matters much. Do you have a link to that? But yeah, 18z NAM slams on the breaks at 63 and Joaquin moves back westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 New track from NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 J seems to have slammed the breaks on his westward progression. Don't see it making 75W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Life has to suck underneath a nearly-stalled Cat 4 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Life has to suck underneath a nearly-stalled Cat 4 'cane.A rapidly strengthening cat 4 nonetheless. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days. Quite telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What steering factor becomes the major influence will not be known until Saturday morning. For now the public disseminaton of out to sea info is as irresponsible as last night's up the Bay characterization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z NAM shows a landfall near OBX, not that it matters much. Ummm, no it doesn't. Maybe you were looking at yesterday's? NAM is still OTS by end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ummm, no it doesn't. Maybe you were looking at yesterday's? NAM is still OTS by end of the run. NAM at the end of the run has Joaquin moving WNW/NW, so its coming back towards the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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