Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is underdoing today's precip. It has almost nothing locally thru 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is underdoing today's precip. It has almost nothing locally thru 12z tomorrow. that changes everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is underdoing today's precip. It has almost nothing locally thru 12z tomorrow. I didn't look too hard at the globals so correct me if I'm wrong but so far it looks like all models missed today. None of the mesos got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I didn't look too hard at the globals so correct me if I'm wrong but so far it looks like all models missed today. None of the mesos got it right. Too far east...though DCA is beating IAD pretty badly so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 well west Well, not too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A friend is cruising from NJ to Bermuda Saturday, then coming back Wednesday. Hope they like rough seas! Tell them to hit the casino. Cruises to nowhere have more frequent jackpots. (Apologies for the banter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 even the HRRR had pretty much nothing in its early runs before catching on during the morning I didn't look too hard at the globals so correct me if I'm wrong but so far it looks like all models missed today. None of the mesos got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12Z FIM is stubborn if nothing else. It was the first (as far as I know) to show the westward curve and it is still locked in for a LF just south of the NC/VA border. I do think OTS is the higher probability call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are we going to have to read your new rewrite of this same statement every run that goes ots? If so could you perhaps just reword it and post 20 times now and we can move on and not have to be reminded of your only thought every few hours. I'm just curious...why does everyone have a problem with comments like this? I mean, we get it, you want something interesting to track, but no one should want this to hit us... I don't feel like we should shut people down just because they comment that they're glad it's trending away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wonder if it will get to 75 west before any north movement If so, that is west of the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wonder if it will get to 75 west before any north movement If so, that is west of the NHC track. 75W was my initial benchmark.. and DTs for that matter. Still a bit east in many instances but perhaps not with this flow. Does seem late in the game to have the models missing it but I guess there are still some showing a hit so who knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm just curious...why does everyone have a problem with comments like this? I mean, we get it, you want something interesting to track, but no one should want this to hit us... I don't feel like we should shut people down just because they comment that they're glad it's trending away from the coast. It's not that you commented, it's that you just keep repeating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The further this thing is going west the closer its getting to the ULL in the long run. if this thing takes the left side of the tracks vs the right it would be a model failure for the top tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 15z SREFs still hold the line... looks like majority of still like NC/VA area... will need to see individ to confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Quite clear whats going on with the SREF now. NC-VA Hit for sure vs all the east blobs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Honest question............we are still almost 96 hours away from the time that this would be at the MA lat. (by the NHC track). Are the models that reliable? Isn't there always a large error that far out with tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If you compare the CMC with the GFS. The positions are freakishly close up untill about 36 hours, the situation is insanely sensitive and how far the center moves in the next 12 hours will determine the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Obv now instead of all over the place before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too far east...though DCA is beating IAD pretty badly so far to highlight IAD http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIAD.html Andrews http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KADW.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is hard to bet against a GFS/Euro combo. The last few frames look like Joaquin is headed just south of west again. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/ft-animated.gifWSW continues and its moving pretty good right now it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's definitely moved a bit west today but some of these moves are probably just wobbles. There's a convective weight to the SE at the moment so that might be helping the latest southward wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 75W was my initial benchmark.. and DTs for that matter. Still a bit east in many instances but perhaps not with this flow. Does seem late in the game to have the models missing it but I guess there are still some showing a hit so who knows for sure. I noticed earlier that the NHC forecast had it getting close to 75 but never quite there. Sure looks from sat. that it's going to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hogan has issued a State of Emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LWX afternoon AFD re Joaquin: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PLEASE REFER TO NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICALCYCLONE JOAQUIN AND BE AWARE THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVYRAIN AND FLOODING...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COASTAL FLOODING LATETHIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONEJOAQUIN AS IT EMERGES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MOVES UP/ALONG THEEASTERN SEABOARD. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE NHC IS A BIT SLOWERAND FURTHER EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK STILLWELL OFF THE SC/NC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOPROVIDE A MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LAST COUPLE GFS/UKMET RUNSARE NUDGING TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH A TRACK THAT KEEPS JOAQUIN WELLOFF THE COAST AND THUS HAS MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA. 00Z GEFSSUITE ALSO HAD 8 OF ITS 21 MEMBERS KEEP TC JOAQUIN OUT AT SEA...ANOTABLE SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY WHEN NEARLY ALL 21 HAD LANDFALLSOMEWHERE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE THIS...OTHER GUIDANCEINCLUDING THE GFDL...CMC...AND HWRF STILL BRING CIRCULATION ONSHORE.HOWEVER...EVEN SOME OF THESE MODELS ARE ALSO STARTING TO SHIFTFURTHER EAST. THE HOPE IS THAT AS JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TURNNORTHWARD LATER TODAY THE TRACK FORECAST WILL COME INTO BETTERAGREEMENT. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WENT WITH HPCGUIDANCE FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hogan has issued a State of Emergency. Guess MD, VA and NJ didn't learn from Florida's mistake during the Erika debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey all, quick question: at initialization, have the models been accurately depicting the placement of the trough feature over the CONUS? The position/movement of the hurricane is certainly important, but the real life location of the trough vs. how it's modeled is also an important variable to consider. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what's the best (or one of the best) links to see a satellite loop of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what's the best (or one of the best) links to see a satellite loop of the storm? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what's the best (or one of the best) links to see a satellite loop of the storm? lots of different image options here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm just curious...why does everyone have a problem with comments like this? I mean, we get it, you want something interesting to track, but no one should want this to hit us... I don't feel like we should shut people down just because they comment that they're glad it's trending away from the coast. Mostly because its just banter... no different than someone simply posting "I hope it hits us... I hope I hope..." There's a banter thread just for that kind of thing. This is supposed to be model discussion... we should probably be in storm mode like winter so the banter is better moderated. I have been watching this thread like a hawk for days but not commenting because I have nothing to add to what the smart guys are saying. He's in my death pool That's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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