eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro a smidge south through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ...And at 48 also south of its previous position, but heading just as far east. Slightly deeper LP over SE Georgia (997). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey MN Transplant, you mentioned yesterday that init errors are not a huge deal on globals handling tropical systems, right? Looks like a ~40mb error on this GFS run. At what point is it substantial enough to matter? Not that I think this run is bad, the trend seems clear to me at this point. No, the GFS initialized the storm at 1200 UTC with a minimum central pressure of ~952.5 mb. This is quick and dirty, but I took the native model file (spectral coefficients), did a transform to the full grid, and then zoomed in to plot the surface pressure. Here is the plot from the analysis file of the storm with a 0.5 mb interval (apologies for the quality of figure but I did this quickly between other obligations just for fun): Edit to add: You have to be careful with graphics on the web if they used reduced resolution files to create the graphics (for example, the above is at native resolution, but if I re-did this from a 0.5 or 1 degree grib file, it would look weaker because of the post-processing involved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's west through 78...just a smidge, but west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 fish didn't even attempt to come NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, NHC 2pm map shows 0 changes...lol .. curious to read their discussion and reasoning behind not adjusting further OTS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's west through 78...just a smidge, but west So, many, many hundreds of miles from the US coastline, rather than many, many, many hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So, many, many hundreds of miles from the US coastline, rather than many, many, many hundreds of miles. ha...It's going to have to cut ASAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the 12z Euro is going to underline the OTS scenario even more. I'm glad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ha...It's going to have to cut ASAP How close is it to Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, NHC 2pm map shows 0 changes...lol .. curious to read their discussion and reasoning behind not adjusting further OTS yet. The NHC never adjusts their track at 2pm, 8pm, 2am, 2pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, NHC 2pm map shows 0 changes...lol .. curious to read their discussion and reasoning behind not adjusting further OTS yet. Typically they change the track with the 5 am / pm and 11am /pm advisories as opposed to the intermediate advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, NHC 2pm map shows 0 changes...lol .. curious to read their discussion and reasoning behind not adjusting further OTS yet. So again, the Euro is well east of the right contour of the cone as it crosses 35N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How close is it to Bermuda? Was just about to say. This might be closer to hitting Hamilton than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NHC never adjusts their track at 2pm, 8pm, 2am, 2pm... Thanks for clearing that up, appreciate the professional thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 how much rain is the Euro showing for MA? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the 12z Euro is going to underline the OTS scenario even more. I'm glad.Are we going to have to read your new rewrite of this same statement every run that goes ots? If so could you perhaps just reword it and post 20 times now and we can move on and not have to be reminded of your only thought every few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 how much rain is the Euro showing for MA? thanks i was going to ask how many clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Typically they change the track with the 5 am / pm and 11am /pm advisories as opposed to the intermediate advisories. I see. Good to know thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Red is the 12z Euro...Based on Lake Effect's post I guess they will move it east at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 how much rain is the Euro showing for MA? thanks 1.5-2 most of local area.. 3ish over bay and SW of DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 1.5-2 most of local area.. 3ish over bay and SW of DC region. So in.line w the gfs. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Red is the 12z Euro...Based on Lake Effect's post I guess they will move it east at 5pm 12euro.PNG their cone of threat will quickly become the cone of silence by this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 1.5-2 most of local area.. 3ish over bay and SW of DC region. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Red is the 12z Euro...Based on Lake Effect's post I guess they will move it east at 5pm 12euro.PNG Yes...based on what I see, and knowing the methodology in their track changing, the NHC will probably adjust the entire track to the east....a bit...such that the center line will show a miss entirely for the US...with the western portion of the cone only touching extreme SE NE/CC....you may not see any of the Carolina's in any of the cone!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How close is it to Bermuda? well west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes...based on what I see, and knowing the methodology in their track changing, the NHC will probably adjust the entire track to the east....a bit...such that the center line will show a miss entirely for the US...with the western portion of the cone only touching extreme SE NE/CC....you may not see any of the Carolina's in any of the cone!!!! IMO this term "Carolina's" should be put to bed. North Carolina is really the only Carolina that this ever had a chance to effect. Its coastline is so much more expansive and prone to hurricanes than SC and they lie hundreds of miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A friend is cruising from NJ to Bermuda Saturday, then coming back Wednesday. Hope they like rough seas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A friend is cruising from NJ to Bermuda Saturday, then coming back Wednesday. Hope they like rough seas! That seems suicidal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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