T. August Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A state of emergency over 5 inches of rain? I heard they're going to resurrect #JerseyStrong to raise awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like a 114kt SFMR reading unflagged on the inbound leg of this pass. But on the same ob report FL wind was lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it's making its turn now and a little faster. Water vapor shows the center faster along than currently forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it's making its turn now and a little faster. Water vapor shows the center faster along than currently forecast Is the forward speed all that important to the end result or is the more important factor the trough coming in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is the forward speed all that important to the end result or is the more important factor the trough coming in? Faster turn and speed is better for capture by the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it's making its turn now and a little faster. Water vapor shows the center faster along than currently forecast it definitely has more of a NW look the last couple hours vice just a wobble but I am assuming it doesn't seem to make much difference when it comes to track at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Faster turn and speed is better for capture by the trough Thank you. That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Decent eye forming...almost there. Would love to see this thing start chugging northward now. Come on capture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Decent eye forming...almost there. Would love to see this thing start chugging northward now. Come on capture! EJ - It is a beauty of a storm. Those islands must be getting raked right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EJ - It is a beauty of a storm. Those islands must be getting raked right now. Wish I was down there, I'll have to pay Josh to take me to one of those famous tropical cyclones he always chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wish I was down there, I'll have to pay Josh to take me to one of those famous tropical cyclones he always chases. Certainly would be an adrenaline rush. Think I'd rather be on a mainland getting hit than a small island, though. Must be downright scary to essentially have no escape that isn't by boat. Meanwhile - Bernie Rayno saying out to sea is more likely now. Really I guess as ers said a few posts up - it's going to come down to the exact track I suppose. We need to see if the S movement stopped early enough and if the N/NW movement stars soon enough to get a capture. These are the times I think I'm glad I changed my major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 000URNT12 KNHC 011712 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015 A. 01/16:47:40Z B. 23 deg 02 min N 074 deg 08 min W C. 700 mb 2567 m D. 114 kt E. 132 deg 11 nm F. 235 deg 111 kt G. 132 deg 15 nm H. 937 mb I. 12 C / 3051 m J. 20 C / 3043 m K. 9 C / NA L. OPEN WNW M. C24 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm P. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 24 MAX FL WIND 120 KT 177 / 9 NM 15:24:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 330 / 14 KT ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's good enough for a bump to 130mph with the next advisory probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks to be moving w now. Has never gotten below 23 degrees. Definitely not moving s anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at the bright side: Having the hurricane go OTS correlates with better winter prospects. If there is any causation behind this correlation (unlikely), I'm happy rooting for the long term play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at the bright side: Having the hurricane go OTS correlates with better winter prospects. If there is any causation behind this correlation (unlikely), I'm happy rooting for the long term play! It's because the fuzzy caterpillars don't get blown away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 T-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 937mb per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Better view of cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We have one 12z model on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It all depends on when the storm decides to turn N and NW... 12 Hrs sooner than forecast and the storm likely boomerangs towards the ec Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z GFDL holds the line... smacks ORF and then moves NW.... would be bad for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z GFDL holds the line... smacks ORF and then moves NW Oh Yoda... Anyway, the eye is looking fierce lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Those days when the GFDL and the Canadian are all you have to hang your hat on...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12Z HWRF OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFDL initialized well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12Z HWRF OTS. That's all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z Ukie is further east...fully OTS camp now. It's the GGEM and GFDL vs the rest of the world now. I wouldn't place my bets on that combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z Ukie is further east...fully OTS camp now. It's the GGEM and GFDL vs the rest of the world now. I wouldn't place my bets on that combo. I love the CMC. I Really do. It always shows you want you want to see. The only problem is that its never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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