Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/dycoretesting.html Most likely candidate models at this point based on phase 1 testing are the GFDL FV3 and NCAR MPAS (i.e. not FIM, possibly but very unlikely to be "NIM, nonhydro..." Thank you! Always interested when you post. Back on topic - Hurricane hunters now flew over to the NW quad it seems. Wonder what's up. Maybe entering the eye from a different angle? Seems atypical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So the latest track of the most consistent model is completely outside of their cone, and instead their favored track is a tropical storm hitting Long Island? Meh. They split the uprights. Seems like the safest bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So the latest track of the most consistent model is completely outside of their cone, and instead their favored track is a tropical storm hitting Long Island? I really really wish in these particular maps they'd stop showing the precise location dot after three days and just let the cone speak for itself. The position points can easily be had elsewhere, but despite all the "don't focus on the precise track" statements, everyone just looks right at the dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I really really wish in these particular maps they'd stop showing the precise location dot after three days and just let the cone speak for itself. The position points can easily be had elsewhere, but despite all the "don't focus on the precise track" statements, everyone just looks right at the dots. Yeah, the cone also needs to made dynamic (i.e. based on the uncertainty for a particular forecast instead of from the climatologically averaged errors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQPbkhKW8AA7F2_.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like hurricane hunters are going to locate the center just a hair south of west from the last posn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Could still be a wobble but the southwest motion could be coming to an end right now. Satellite almost has a touch of a north of west component but it's hard to say based on only a couple frames. But that combined with hurricane hunters finding a little less south movement is cool to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I really really wish in these particular maps they'd stop showing the precise location dot after three days and just let the cone speak for itself. The position points can easily be had elsewhere, but despite all the "don't focus on the precise track" statements, everyone just looks right at the dots. I agree....Plus is it meteorologically sound to split the difference between 2 greatly divergent ideas and call it the most probable?...They had the cone right 36 hours ago, and hasn't needed to be changed.....Have an OTS path with part of the cone tickling the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So the latest track of the most consistent model is completely outside of their cone, and instead their favored track is a tropical storm hitting Long Island? Come on...you know better. Even a relative simpleton like me knows. The middle of the cone isn't what they think is most likely - it just happens to be the middle of the potential track. Even the note mentions that "The cone contains the probable path of the storm center" and doesn't say anything about a favored track. These graphics can be easily misread, of course, so there's an argument to be made that they should have a cone only and no line running through the middle that can be misconstrued as what the NHC thinks is the likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00Z GFS is slightly SW of 06Z @ 36h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS has mostly NW motion through the first 36 hours according to a rough eyeballing. Not going very quickly either. EDIT: NW, then almost due N from 39-45. Trough building in from Florida, but still a ways off. And NE at 48-51. Goodbye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon deft had a pressure reading of at least 935!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does NHC always have to have a cone if there's a bimodal distribution instead of a bell curve? They should've just drawn two lines, one going to OBX, the other OTS, with a probability for each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does NHC always have to have a cone if there's a bimodal distribution instead of a bell curve? They should've just drawn two lines, one going to OBX, the other OTS, with a probability for each. You're assuming that the genpop can understand probabilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ridge is much stronger to the NE this deff should be west and phased more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not seeing much of a difference in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ridge is much stronger to the NE this deff should be west and phased more Not seeing much of a difference in the GFS. It's always funny to see two back to back posts like this. I haven't looked at the new GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's always funny to see two back to back posts like this. I haven't looked at the new GFS yet. The ridge in the north Atlantic is maybe 2mb stronger at the surface, but I don't think that is going to affect the outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They didn't even have to run it. 69hrs of 12z vs 72hrs of 06z is identical. Same spot, pressure within 0.2mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 to my weenie eyes, it seems that trough over the NE is a bigger player in helping to scoot it ots edit: more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Was partially phasing then kicked it out frame I was referring to and trend map at 54 ridge was pushing but not enough http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So the latest track of the most consistent model is completely outside of their cone, and instead their favored track is a tropical storm hitting Long Island? This one's killer for the cone. Pretty clear they are trying to minimize error rather than give the most likely forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This one's killer for the cone. Pretty clear they are trying to minimize error rather than give the most likely forecast at this point. I think I'm more or less about ready to transition to the "just watching a cool storm on satellite" mode in my mindset. I know there's still time for shifts but after the new G-IV and balloon data was ingested it seems seems like OTS is the favored solution here. Really nice looking storm on sat though. Not often you see such an intense storm that hasn't cleared an eye yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey MN Transplant, you mentioned yesterday that init errors are not a huge deal on globals handling tropical systems, right? Looks like a ~40mb error on this GFS run. At what point is it substantial enough to matter? Not that I think this run is bad, the trend seems clear to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the only place that will need a state of emergency is South Carolina. I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like that modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the GFS is right, any state of emergency will look silly in hindsight. I guess you have to think 4-5 days down the road in these situations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey MN Transplant, you mentioned yesterday that init errors are not a huge deal on globals handling tropical systems, right? Looks like a ~40mb error on this GFS run. At what point is it substantial enough to matter? Not that I think this run is bad, the trend seems clear to me at this point. I think it initialized fine on my maps... where are you seeing 40mb error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey MN Transplant, you mentioned yesterday that init errors are not a huge deal on globals handling tropical systems, right? Looks like a ~40mb error on this GFS run. At what point is it substantial enough to matter? Not that I think this run is bad, the trend seems clear to me at this point. dtk would be able to answer this better than me. The tight inner core dynamics are not going to be simulated in the GFS, so the exact pressure doesn't matter much. The bigger problem would be a weak system that isn't "seen" at all by the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's finished. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think it initialized fine on my maps... where are you seeing 40mb error? I've got 987 at 0h on both AmWX maps and tropicaltidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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