MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are there others that are as far along at ESRL right now? I know the FIM is one of the frequent ones I hear mentioned in model discussions. Bunch of info here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/dycoretesting.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder how the eventual GFS replacement the FIM has been doing with this storm. I heard it mentioned a few days ago but not since. I have been playing around with this link on the experimental models -- http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually, the FIM is only one of the considerations for a GFS replacement. There is an ongoing study right now to determine the route forward on that. There are competing ideas for models. FIM ensembles from 00z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It'll be interesting to see if the SW movement has more W component to it on subsequent center fixes. THe plane just turned more south so might be a good indication it's still heading more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM'd... This really is like practice for winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING OVER SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 73.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bunch of info here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/dycoretesting.html Thanks! Will take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is still low, since there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely not occur until at least Friday morning. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 URRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know its a terrible model in the LR, but I was just using it as if it was another possible solution yoda, let's be honest. If you know how bad it is why are you using it? We both know why. It is still showing a EC landfall. We've seen all along that the point where models start to diverge is around hour 60+/- now. NAM has so many issues that far out. It just feeds the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. Let's see who leaves and joins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hurr hunters are doing a loop in the NE quad. Also, I think I detect a west wobble in the last few frames. Visible loop even made it look a bit north of west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still has that 9 look. It's a beauty of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The eye on visible satellite looks to really be about to clear or trying to again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC track bumped eastward ever so slightly. Incremental changes till a complete OTS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the recon hunters are checking something... Up until today,haven't seen them fly into the eye area 3 times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder how the eventual GFS replacement the FIM has been doing with this storm. I heard it mentioned a few days ago but not since. The FIM was one of the first to lock onto the landfalling west curve idea. Last night's run was still a dead on hit. Also, if I've interpreted it's configuration correctly it is currently using the GFS physics and data assimilation system which leaves the numerical solver (the fact that it uses hexagonal grid points as opposed to being spectral goes without saying) as the primary difference. I'm sure dtk could provide more information or correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the recon hunters are checking something... Up until today,haven't seen them fly into the eye area 3 times.. Yeah seems they are checking something out in the NE part of the storm. Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The FIM was one of the first to lock onto the landfalling west curve idea. Last night's run was still a dead on hit. Also, if I've interpreted it's configuration correctly it is currently using the GFS physics and data assimilation system which leaves the numerical solver (the fact that it uses hexagonal grid points as opposed to being spectral goes without saying) as the primary difference. I'm sure dtk could provide more information or correct me if I'm wrong. Looks like the FIM is a LF between VA/NC border before turning NE and riding up the coast. Couple OTS members but most show LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still has that 9 look. It's a beauty of a storm. for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Christie just declared SoE for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the recon hunters are checking something... Up until today,haven't seen them fly into the eye area 3 times.. Probably checking to see if their puke bags work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are there others that are as far along at ESRL right now? I know the FIM is one of the frequent ones I hear mentioned in model discussions. Yes: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/dycoretesting.html Most likely candidate models at this point based on phase 1 testing are the GFDL FV3 and NCAR MPAS (i.e. not FIM, possibly but very unlikely to be "NIM, nonhydro..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some of those islands in the Bahamas must be getting ripped to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC track bumped eastward ever so slightly. Incremental changes till a complete OTS forecast. So the latest track of the most consistent model is completely outside of their cone, and instead their favored track is a tropical storm hitting Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC track bumped eastward ever so slightly. Incremental changes till a complete OTS forecast. SMH -- nothing is set in stone. For goodness sakes. If you, or anyone, think this is OTS, then just stop posting about it, and go hang out in the obs thread about todays rain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the FIM is a LF between VA/NC border before turning NE and riding up the coast. Couple OTS members but most show LF. Yep, the 0Z deterministic was a solid hit. I have no idea how it's doing this year, but in past years it has been said that it beats the GFS and sometimes even the ECMWF in track forecast skill. So I wouldn't completely dismiss the LF idea just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep, the 0Z deterministic was a solid hit. I have no idea how it's doing this year, but in past years it has been said that it beats the GFS and sometimes even the ECMWF in track forecast skill. So I wouldn't completely dismiss the LF idea just yet. I've not seen any quantitative statistics showing the FIM > GFS/ECMWF (maybe some cherry picked cases or something, but not on the whole). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/dycoretesting.html Most likely candidate models at this point based on phase 1 testing are the GFDL FV3 and NCAR MPAS (i.e. not FIM, possibly but very unlikely to be "NIM, nonhydro..." Thank you! Always interested when you post. Back on topic - Hurricane hunters now flew over to the NW quad it seems. Wonder what's up. Maybe entering the eye from a different angle? Seems atypical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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