Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF still the same at 06z. How good is this model? IN theory it's designed to be a hurricane model. Ian said last night that it was okay with established tropical systems. Though in the end it could just be one of the later models to cave to king Euro. We really need more funding to NWP. Gotta catch up to the darn euro folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Have no issues with the Governor of Virginia declaring a state of emergency... with all the rain they are getting today and tomorrow, plus with the uncertainty of the storm, better safe than sorry. It was the right move. And the differences in the models, to me, seems to be the speed exiting the Bahamas. The models that come to the East Coast has it moving quicker out of the Bahamas than the GFS/EURO. If it starts moving quicker than expected, could be a worrying sign. Would expect the EURO (and now the GFS, although it was wrong as we all know) to be right but time will time I suppose. EURO has been pretty spot on, with the continued drift into the Bahamas... it had that a few days ago when the other models had the Hurricane turning before reaching the Bahamas. Exactly! I had my doubts early, but the flooding will not be insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 IN theory it's designed to be a hurricane model. Ian said last night that it was okay with established tropical systems. Though in the end it could just be one of the later models to cave to king Euro. We really need more funding to NWP. Gotta catch up to the darn euro folks or just talk to them directly to see where the models are so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 or just talk to them directly to see where the models are so different You really think that the developers/scientists don't know why/how the models are different? It's a small community. We interact and share ideas all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You really think that the developers/scientists don't know why/how the models are different? It's a small community. We interact and share ideas all of the time. Good to know, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good to know, thanks Also, people shouldn't be so quick to crown a champion on this forecast just yet. There is still significant uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM is plenty wet for the DC metro tomorrow... Edit: Does anyone know why the NAM is consistently initialized with Joaquin LP significantly higher than actual obs? Is this a smoothing out feature of the NAM resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You know when you're a glutton for punishment when you think it'd be a fun project to be on as one of the weather model programmers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yea, recon still has it going SW...wobbles and fluctuations are common with the major hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, people shouldn't be so quick to crown a champion on this forecast just yet. There is still significant uncertainty. For you and ers and others in the know, SO...The 500 mb pattern provides a path of least resistance at T = 33 hours. Over time, do you expect that ridge in the west Atlantic to slip east and allow the storm to recurve or to move NNE? Or...is the NNW path still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In all honesty guys. Joaquin could fook' with the upstream and downstream players if there is overperformance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, people shouldn't be so quick to crown a champion on this forecast just yet. There is still significant uncertainty. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anyone have a write up on PER stuff? I am trying to understand it because I really don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You know when you're a glutton for punishment when you think it'd be a fun project to be on as one of the weather model programmers. I'm honored by being able to interact with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 4km NAM has been ticking west during the timeframe that is most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anyone have a write up on PER stuff? I am trying to understand it because I really don't! Here's a great paper covering a bunch of case studies. http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf ETA: here a great and easy to read powerpoint http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm honored by being able to interact with him. Events like this are incredibly humbling. However, I already have a plethora of things I'd like to investigate (and in fact I had a collaborator do some sensitivity runs overnight last night testing one of my hypotheses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here's a great paper covering a bunch of case studies. http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf ETA: here a great and easy to read powerpoint http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt This quote is really interesting..."Of the 47 documented PREs in Cote (2007), 26 oc- curred left of the TC track (LOT), while 12 were along track (AT) and 9 were right of track (ROT)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm honored by being able to interact with him. Actually I was talking about me. I think it'd be fun to be one of those developers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z NAM has Joaquin moving NW at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z NAM has Joaquin moving NW at the end of its run The NAM also develops an absurd looking low pressure on the SC coast. It is just so bad at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NAM also develops an absurd looking low pressure on the SC coast. It is just so bad at this. I wonder how the eventual GFS replacement the FIM has been doing with this storm. I heard it mentioned a few days ago but not since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z NAM has Joaquin moving NW at the end of its run Full capture. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here's a great paper covering a bunch of case studies. http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf ETA: here a great and easy to read powerpoint http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt THANK YOU BOB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder how the eventual GFS replacement the FIM has been doing with this storm. I heard it mentioned a few days ago but not since. Actually, the FIM is only one of the considerations for a GFS replacement. There is an ongoing study right now to determine the route forward on that. There are competing ideas for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nam moves it into va-nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Full capture. lol I know its a terrible model in the LR, but I was just using it as if it was another possible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nam moves it into va-nc Closer to OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually, the FIM is only one of the considerations for a GFS replacement. There is an ongoing study right now to determine the route forward on that. There are competing ideas for models. Are there others that are as far along at ESRL right now? I know the FIM is one of the frequent ones I hear mentioned in model discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Closer to OBX Yep!(: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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