WeSuck Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I get that this is typically the kind of stuff we weather enthusiast live for...but let a snowstorm come up the coast and hit us hard. This would put way too many at risk and cause way too much destruction. This is probably the 20th post from you saying the same thing about wanting this to go OTS. We get it. Add some value to your posts in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Solution for this storm is FAR from certain. That being said DT looks like a god right now. Sent from my iPhone LOL! Yeah, if you always hug one model exclusively, then when that model scores a coup, you look smart. At least, you look smart to people who aren't paying attention and are apparently unable to remember the multiple times (just within the last year) his Euro hugging made him look like a total fool. With all due respect, anyone who thinks this makes him look like a "god" either hasn't been paying attention or just really, really has a blind spot when it comes to past events. This is the same principle that psychics and fortune tellers rely on to get credulous people to believe in them. "I'm sensing some trouble with your father..." "Uhh, no." "Wait no - it's a father FIGURE - an uncle?" "Hmmm, nope." "You dislike Uncle Ben's rice?" "YES! OMG! How'd you know!!? You have The Gift!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You've got something on your chin... Aside from blowing every snowstorm last winter, last week, DT called for a 3 day weekend washout with 10 inches of rain here and all we got was an overcast Friday, an Saturday drizzle, and a sunny Sunday. He may well get this one right by hugging the Euro, but his overall track record vs the local TV mets has been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 By the looks of the satellite image, you would think that Florida would come into play. But it just hits a brick wall, supposedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Again, I digress for a moment. The situation is not certain. Does anyone have the 0z EPS for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so wait, which ensemble is this?? Again, I digress for a moment. The situation is not certain. Does anyone have the 0z EPS for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Have no issues with the Governor of Virginia declaring a state of emergency... with all the rain they are getting today and tomorrow, plus with the uncertainty of the storm, better safe than sorry. It was the right move. And the differences in the models, to me, seems to be the speed exiting the Bahamas. The models that come to the East Coast has it moving quicker out of the Bahamas than the GFS/EURO. If it starts moving quicker than expected, could be a worrying sign. Would expect the EURO (and now the GFS, although it was wrong as we all know) to be right but time will time I suppose. EURO has been pretty spot on, with the continued drift into the Bahamas... it had that a few days ago when the other models had the Hurricane turning before reaching the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so wait, which ensemble is this?? That would be the 06z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Again, I digress for a moment. The situation is not certain. Does anyone have the 0z EPS for comparison? Yes, this is a good reminder that the situation is still very uncertain. In fact, looks less certain than even a day ago! At the same time (not to be critical of what you say, mind you!), there are many more GEFS members that are pulled out to sea compared to the other day (as I recall), and even the ones that do hit the coast are spread out much more. You don't see the same good clustering toward a specific region like we did before. Likewise, the spread looks more "even", i.e., the more eastern/out-to-sea members aren't nearly the outliers as they were previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so wait, which ensemble is this?? I think 6z GFS - not sure why the time stamp is 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think 6z GFS - not sure why the time stamp is 8am Yeah, time stamp looks odd...unless that refers to the time it became available or the plot was completed(?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GOES rapid scan visible satellite has the eye clearing out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So, one thing I'm not clear on is if the OTS solution becomes the expected forecast, does that also reduce the PRE totals as well, or do we expect that storm to just move up the coast still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 SREF still west. Several areas of deeper pressure tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks! Yes, the data is sent over the GTS. Here is plot showing availability of observations at ECMWF for 00 UTC last night (green dots are dropsondes from the US flight): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Based off the GOES rapid scan, it looks like the turn to the northwest is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Have no issues with the Governor of Virginia declaring a state of emergency... with all the rain they are getting today and tomorrow, plus with the uncertainty of the storm, better safe than sorry. It was the right move. And the differences in the models, to me, seems to be the speed exiting the Bahamas. The models that come to the East Coast has it moving quicker out of the Bahamas than the GFS/EURO. If it starts moving quicker than expected, could be a worrying sign. Would expect the EURO (and now the GFS, although it was wrong as we all know) to be right but time will time I suppose. EURO has been pretty spot on, with the continued drift into the Bahamas... it had that a few days ago when the other models had the Hurricane turning before reaching the Bahamas. Plus declaring a state of emergency doesn't really cost you anything (other than some public panic to naive residents, but can't do anything about that). Plus you aren't actually doing anything when you declare the SoE. You're just preparing yourself so if and when you have to do something, you're better equipped to respond quickly and efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Based off the GOES rapid scan, it looks like the turn to the northwest is starting. That right on time per the Euro? I thought that would occur closer to 0z this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes, the data is sent over the GTS. Here is plot showing availability of observations at ECMWF for 00 UTC last night (green dots are dropsondes from the US flight): Excellent, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Positive model trends overnight, very good to sea the changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Based off the GOES rapid scan, it looks like the turn to the northwest is starting. I see the same thing, the center is only 70 miles or so ESE of the 24 hr plot on the 06Z GFS so a turn west or even NW and no change in speed would IMO put it at the GFS 24 hr plot way ahead of schedule and even further ahead of the Euro since it doesn't really ever have it going NW at all, it drives it south into the Bahamas and then basically back out the way it came....in another 46 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That right on time per the Euro? I thought that would occur closer to 0z this evening? Could also be a wobble though before more sustained NW movement begins later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anyone got a link to the current rapid scan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its hard to tell to since the eye is wrapping up a bit so what looks like a west or south wobble might be more a function of the eye wrapping up....the Euro has it move SW then back NE to about where it is now by 00Z Sat so this thing needs to stall or crawl for a good while to match the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS both of which have it hanging out within 100 miles or so of its current location for the next 36-42 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still moving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still moving SW. In recent frames looks more stationary. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ARW LOL.still many solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In recent frames looks more stationary. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray Wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF still the same at 06z. How good is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.