eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Climo wins again... Should have known to bet against a hurricane hitting the EC with 100-year rains from VA to ME even without the ECMWF... This was great prep for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The January blizzard should continue to give one pause as far as buying the EC against all other guidance. That said, the EC seems to have a gift with tropical/non-tropical interactions which the other models lack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 6z gfs way ots with a hook back to hit cape cod...wow what a change in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't know why we even lok at anything but the EURO. What a bust. GFS has been pretty craptastic with the forecast for this week. The long duration of heavy rain it had been advertising (today through Saturday) has pretty much disappeared on recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EURO wins again. This'll be a fish by tonight. Zzzzz...next. are you more sad that you won't get a chance to wet blanket if it did hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't know why we even lok at anything but the EURO. What a bust. Because there are plenty of circumstances where the Euro is on its own and ends up caving or missing badly. Shrug. It's right slightly more than the other models - but it is faaaar from infallible, and situations like this (where the Euro is all on its own and ends up being right) are actually fairly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Catching up and now every model has a different take on if/when this flings into the coast. Last night it was either NC or OTS. There is less certainty with each model run. Bizarre. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow @ the 6z GFS. Consistent for days and then boom, flip back to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gfs isn't even a big deal here wrt rain. Like 2" for mby. SC is dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Idk if there could be a bigger swing. 24 hours ago the trend was further west for an EC strike. Now? Fish. other storms have gone poof in a much shorter lead time. Boxing Day for one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Local rain forecast dropped significantly for Fri/Sat, nearly halved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 whole lot of jumpers in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 whole lot of jumpers in this thread. I'm not a jumper but I am in the garage and I just started the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Solution for this storm is FAR from certain. That being said DT looks like a god right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 whole lot of jumpers in this thread. Well the Euro is generally better than the GFS and its been solid. Now the GFS caves. Climo is also huge, these left hook storms never usually happen. The threat isn't dead, but its getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 turn it off! turn it off! Alright 6z hwrf into southern obx, gfdl into nc/va border but I've still got the keys in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meanwhile I bet we've got a cat 4 when the next set of obs from recon comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well the Euro is generally better than the GFS and its been solid. Now the GFS caves. Climo is also huge, these left hook storms never usually happen. The threat isn't dead, but its getting close. So much for ensemble consensus. They are split into two camps, one with a capture and a hard left into NC/SC and the OTS camp The OP is indecisive and splits the difference Shows that a small shift now will go a long way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 More plots done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Amazing eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its like going with the model that shows you the least amount of snow... should we pick the model that shows something closest to climo track vs all the ones that show the historic hit? QFT. I'm wondering if Tuesday's event will end up being the most impressive, when all is said and done. 5" will be hard to top, but there's still a lot of rain in my forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Would any particular model run have a changed outcome if it were to initialize at a different location? For instance if the model run in this case began while the hurricane was still just wobbling? So in other words if a model run began when it wobbles left or if it wobbled right would that make any appreciable change in the outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Would any particular model run have a changed outcome if it were to initialize at a different location? For instance if the model run in this case began while the hurricane was still just wobbling? So in other words if a model run began when it wobbles left or if it wobbled right would that make any appreciable change in the outcome? I'm not an expert, but I don't believe so. My understanding is a lot of the changes is because what is happening downstream, once it interacts with the trough off the coast. But perhaps someone more knowledgeable can explain better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
litigator01 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A question for the pros (or more experienced amateurs ) out there... It looks to me like all of the models and ensemble members out there have a close correlation between where the storm ends up (OTS or NC or somewhere in between) with its course between 24 and 48 hours from now. To my untrained eye, all of the models have Joaquin in about the same place in 18-24 hours from now. But from there, any model or ensemble member that predicts NW or N motion from the 24 hour mark to the 48 hour mark results in an east coast landfall...and any model/member that predicts NNE or NE motion from the 24 hour mark to the 48 hour mark results in OTS. I don't see any model that starts it NW and then curves OTS, or any model that moves it NNE and then curves it onshore. Am I imagining things? Or will Joaquin's movement over that period actually be a good indicator of where it finally goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ^^ that's a good catch. I was just comparing yesterdays 18z run with this mornings 06z run and all the players are more or less the same up until 06z Saturday morning (48 hours), then they start to change, like you said, with the shifting of Joaquin itself, NNW or NNE. The trough also digs deeper, and the Low associated with it is stronger on the 18z vs 06z, which I believe is what delays the capture from taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This continued strengthening is allowing Joaquin to move further south, much like the EURO has been advertising for days. The further south Joaquin gets, the longer it will take to rebound and move poleward. This allows the ridge over the Atlantic to drift further east and provide the escape route for the storm. The 12z suite of US / foreign models will probably cluster further out to sea. In the weather world this is a cliff jumper for sure, but when you see actions like what the media and Governor of VA did last night, it does a huge detriment to the public safety field. I would love to see this come up the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay and hit us hard, extreme weather is the only thing that excites me anymore. But it's impossible to ignore the trends that started yesterday around lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This continued strengthening is allowing Joaquin to move further south, much like the EURO has been advertising for days. The further south Joaquin gets, the longer it will take to rebound and move poleward. This allows the ridge over the Atlantic to drift further east and provide the escape route for the storm. The 12z suite of US / foreign models will probably cluster further out to sea. In the weather world this is a cliff jumper for sure, but when you see actions like what the media and Governor of VA did last night, it does a huge detriment to the public safety field. I would love to see this come up the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay and hit us hard, extreme weather is the only thing that excites me anymore. But it's impossible to ignore the trends that started yesterday around lunch. I get that this is typically the kind of stuff we weather enthusiast live for...but let a snowstorm come up the coast and hit us hard. This would put way too many at risk and cause way too much destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Question: Is Virginia still expecting a lot of rain out of the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This continued strengthening is allowing Joaquin to move further south, much like the EURO has been advertising for days. The further south Joaquin gets, the longer it will take to rebound and move poleward. This allows the ridge over the Atlantic to drift further east and provide the escape route for the storm. The 12z suite of US / foreign models will probably cluster further out to sea. In the weather world this is a cliff jumper for sure, but when you see actions like what the media and Governor of VA did last night, it does a huge detriment to the public safety field. I would love to see this come up the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay and hit us hard, extreme weather is the only thing that excites me anymore. But it's impossible to ignore the trends that started yesterday around lunch. Well written Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ^^ that's a good catch. I was just comparing yesterdays 18z run with this mornings 06z run and all the players are more or less the same up until 06z Saturday morning (48 hours), then they start to change, like you said, with the shifting of Joaquin itself, NNW or NNE. The trough also digs deeper, and the Low associated with it is stronger on the 18z vs 06z, which I believe is what delays the capture from taking place. It doesn't really take too much of a change to completely change a forecast, does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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