WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right into ILM. Big jump south and would be a crushing blow to the OBX Are they on the right hand side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Are they on the right hand side? Yes, it would be a major major blow to the OBX. I looked at surface wind panels in our region and we actually get plenty of sustained 30-40mph w/50+ gusts around and east of 95 due to the packed gradient. OC would have issues no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs says no to pre rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like the guidance overall is trending south, HRWF also took it a bit south at 06z. Would still be devastating. We shouldn't be "rooting" for this storm. Let's be real, OTS would be the best scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You can see that by 81hr on instantwxmaps how the trough grabs Joaquin. Earlier than other runs at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Would be awful for NC beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like the guidance overall is trending south, HRWF also took it a bit south at 06z. Would still be devastating. We shouldn't be "rooting" for this storm. Let's be real, OTS would be the best scenario. Thank you for these wise words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs says no to pre rain for us Bro, do you even Met? Still 3-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think this is about as far south as it can go. Euro wildcard aside a correction back north wouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Bro, do you even Met? Still 3-6 inches Lol I read the trop tidbit scale wrong buy it cut way back for dc west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That far south and due west track over land would spare us any wind/tidal issues. The GFS still shows a substantial onshore wind field to the North of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can total rainfall predictions from the models be trusted in this situation or is that something they don't handle well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GFS still shows a substantial onshore wind field to the North of the center. I corrected myself and posted again shortly after that. OC beaches have days of 30-50 knot onshore winds. Tight gradient packed overhead would gust inland areas pretty good as well for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hurricane Isabel in 2003 landfall in North Carolina with 50 mph sustained winds at the Jersey shore. I witnessed that. Downed trees too. But I am not sure if the setup is the same here. I think that had more to do with pressure gradients? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is starting to get me worried for RIC. An Isabel redux would be brutal for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z CMC landfall location quite close to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z CMC landfall location quite close to GFS. Are you guys allowed to post Euro maps? If so, please do later when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z CMC landfall location quite close to GFS. Will be very interesting to see Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That wind field on the GGEM is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the euro holds serve its going to get awfully interesting since landfall is speeding up per the GFS and watches would have to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the euro holds serve its going to get awfully interesting since landfall is speeding up per the GFS and watches would have to be considered. but where do you issue watches? Euro is for the fishes, while GFS is a NC hit... somewhere in the middle? I would not want to be a forecaster for this storm, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the euro holds serve its going to get awfully interesting since landfall is speeding up per the GFS and watches would have to be considered. My gut says it comes closer to the other solutions on the 12z run today. But who knows with how it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Motion Yoda? West like the others or NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wish we had a 102 and 108 and 114... at 120 Joaquin is in N SC per 12z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Motion Yoda? West like the others or NW? Looks more SW to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the euro holds serve its going to get awfully interesting since landfall is speeding up per the GFS and watches would have to be considered. GFS has the eye in eastern NC and 75-80 mph winds right next to RDU by early Sunday morning. There's not much more time for the Euro/Goofus slapfight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks more SW to me. It gets grabbed at 96 I believe when it is right by or over OBX (landfall?), and then decides to move SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What on earth... That's some deep digging from that trough and some hard pull W/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Further south would be fine by me. Save my OC beach house. But obviously OTS would be best for everyone. The midday runs look terrible for OBX and VA Beach. That would be a lot of water piled up in to the mouth of the Bay as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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