Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well we expected clarity would arrive sometime soon. I think it may be. UKMET miss is because it get stuck down there too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Drought buster bust. GFS can still be a pretty awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Edit: I take it back on the Ukie, it manages to scrape maratime Canada before proceeding to Greenland. Well we expected clarity would arrive sometime soon. I think it may be. UKMET miss is because it get stuck down there too long. UKMET nicks Cape Cod....not sure why people were saying it was way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good call! My bust call could bust....still early....but looks like the Hatteras idea is pretty unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 UKMET nicks Cape Cod....not sure why people were saying it was way OTS I can't even make out Cape Cod on the maps I look at and when I view panels hours apart and it splits Bermuda/NC and the next frame is east of New Foundland, that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There is still reason to be concerned, not many of the EPS took this far enough east to spare the NE. Someone will probably lose in the end. The pattern is about as lock'ish as you can get for an EC impactor, the ULL screws it up tho, at least for the normal locations such as Florida/Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM looks farther east so far but probably not enough to escape ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GEFS looks less close to OTS as OP I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z GGEM HOLDS... LANDFALL NEAR OBX AT HR 84... 96 IN E NC http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z GGEM HOLDS... LANDFALL NEAR OBX AT HR 84 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_ Interesting. Still looks farther east, but deff not OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HRS 90 and 96 on 00z GEFS mean are over OBX... leads me to think the 00z GFS OP tonight will not have many members agreeing with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cmc always holds..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And with a proper initialization, the new HWRF is into the Southern OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Question: Does the UKMET get the benefit of the recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GEFS mean being over/around OBX at hrs 90 and 96 leads me to believe that the OP run of the 00z GFS won't have a whole bunch of support from its ensembles... but we shall see shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS ens members don't look too bad. CMC is garbage but I'll take it. HWRF actually can be good when there's a real system to track.. so hanging on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Question: Does the UKMET get the benefit of the recon data?That data is shared internationally so it *should*, but not 100% sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That data is shared internationally so it *should*, but not 100% sure Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z GFDL is nightmare scenario for DC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFDL was into OBX. Something doesn't seem right, will stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NWS MDD HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY 2 SYSTEMAPPROXIMATELY 170 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PER THE NHC03Z ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING ITSSLOW MOTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NHC TRACK SHOWSTHE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON ITS NORTHWARD APPROACH TOWARDTHE NC OUTER BANKS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THEDETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONSFAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE BIGGEST OUTLIER CONTINUES TOBE THE ECMWF SUITE WITH A TRACK WAY OFFSHORE. THE SOLUTION MOSTREPRESENTATIVE OF THE NHC TRACK IS A COMBINATION OF THE 18ZGFS/GEFS MEAN. CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z GFS AS IT TRENDED WELLEAST OF ITS PRECEDING RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFDL was into OBX. Something doesn't seem right, will stay up for the Euro. Watch what it does after landfall... moves WNW some, then W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFDL was into OBX. Something doesn't seem right, will stay up for the Euro. Its interesting. If the Euro holds steadfast on its same track, we'll have to wait for the next GFS run. But if the next GFS run is similar to the 00z run, we'll have a pick and choose. GFS or Euro... Sure, there will be plenty more runs in the coming days. But you gotta imagine one of the two are starting to get an idea where this thing will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Watch what it does after landfall... moves WNW some, then W... Could be some dynamic of Joaquin's intensity. Not sure at this point other than the hooking is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Watch what it does after landfall... moves WNW some, then W... Can someone post link/pics? I'm at work? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC basically tossed the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2am Update: 120 mph 948mb and moving SW at 6 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC basically tossed the 0z GFS. FWIW that was NWS not NHC... not that it matters much. "HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY 2 SYSTEMAPPROXIMATELY 170 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PER THE NHC 03Z ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING ITS SLOW MOTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NHC TRACK SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON ITS NORTHWARD APPROACH TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE BIGGEST OUTLIER CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF SUITE WITH A TRACK WAY OFFSHORE. THE SOLUTION MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NHC TRACK IS A COMBINATION OF THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN. CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z GFS AS IT TRENDED WELL EAST OF ITS PRECEDING RUN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2am Update: 120 mph 948mb and moving SW at 6 mph What an absolute slob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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