feloniousq Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It may be "irresponsible," but it may also be right. There is little to no model guidance taking the storm track up the bay. The Euro and a few other outliers go way out to sea, and the rest hook into the Carolinas or SE VA. NHC frankly does a disservice by making a low probability outcome the "track" so they can hedge their bets when they know full well that's what will be plastered across the media. As we've said here before, NHC mets can write the most beautiful advisories you've ever seen, and it won't matter. No one reads them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to play Devils advocate, we built all of those things in the Tidewater. We can rebuild them if needed. Those barrier islands aren't replaceableThe islands won't be wiped out by this storm.Btw, speaking of man vs nature built, guess what part of the Jersey shore suffered the least over wash and erosion in Sandy? The natural beaches, such as those in parks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not moving much through 30. 984 still ssw approaching bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's east of 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's east of 18z so far South and east. At 30 still. But stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's east of 18z so far and lags a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 and lags a bit slower and "easter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 40-48 seems to be slowly moving nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 40-48 seems to be slowly moving nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stuck at 54. Def a little south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well east of 18z, may still capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS looks like the 12z EURO so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Maybe turning the corner at 69 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oh man GFS. #euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 60 it sure looks like its heading OTS. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 66...accelerating almost ne, but clearly being pulled or split towards east coast in future frames. Will either fujiwara into midlant, or do a euro.... looks more like the latter so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS looks like it is going to lean on the EURO side of things this run, though J. could still get sucked in Westward, let's see. I have it to 72 hours. Pretty big changes from 18z with regards to the phasing between the ULL & Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 For the billionth time, please let the majority be off their rocker and the Euro be right. I've lost count of how many times I've wished that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 @ 78 hours it is starting to phase in. Believe it or not, this might be best case scenario if you want a direct hit into the Chess. It def went WAYY towards the EURO on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well east of 18z, may still capture don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So close either way. Euro scenario and gfs actually look remarkably similar until the last moment. May explain why the tracks are so hard to plot and predict. 78 coming wnw ever so slightly, far off obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 @ 78 hours it is starting to phase in. Believe it or not, this might be best case scenario if you want a direct hit into the Chess. It def went WAYY towards the EURO on this run though. It's a trend east towards the Euro with plenty of GFS-time to come in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin still moving NW @ hour 87....Phasing between J and the ULL down south is starting to dissipate though so I don't know much juice it will have to keep pushing it NW to hit land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's way off on the pressure from start to 75 hours (at which point it is turning NW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's hooking at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah Its captures at 90 heading towards the Chesapeake Edit: and by Chesapeake I mean Delaware Bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 don't think so um, nw movement @90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 90 its coming back west. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's coming in still.. here or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's way off on the pressure from start to 75 hours (at which point it is turning NW). Pressure is not really something to be concerned with when reading the GFS outputs on a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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