Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS

[84 Hour NAM]

Hampton Roads has the largest complex of military bases on Earth, the largest naval base on Earth, the only shipyard on Earth that can build nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and one of two shipyards in the US that can build submarines.

 

One square acre of Newport News Shipbuilding is more important than the entire OBX (and I like the OBX, but have only been there 2-3 times).

Man made vs nature made.

[yoda]

Looks like it may landfall on this run.  Or heading that way at least.

 

Landfall at SC/NC border at 75

[eurojosh]

Looks like it may landfall on this run.  Or heading that way at least.

 

That's my point... Useless, but a big shift.

[Ian]

SHIPS is going wild on RI. Cat 5 tomorrow?

[Kmlwx]

SHIPS is going wild on RI. Cat 5 tomorrow?

 

How wild is wild?

[yoda]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 39s40 seconds ago

Expecting 100-knots at next NHC advisory in a few minutes.

[Ian]

How wild is wild?

Well wild by it's general standards. 39 for 25kts 27 for 35kts but it's way above the mean.

[mosi76]

NHC upgrades to CAT 3 at 11pm....115mph

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

[pazzo83]

It's major:

 

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

[Kmlwx]

Well wild by it's general standards. 39 for 25kts 27 for 35kts but it's way above the mean.

Quite impressive. Now if only we could get a track nailed down

[yoda]

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015

1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the

satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye

has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric

central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has

measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface

winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of

100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015

Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have

delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.

Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial

motion estimate of 220/5 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move

slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or

so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest

oriented ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a

trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States.

This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z

runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z

UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern

portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the

Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states. The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier

by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea. The NHC

forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance

and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is

similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the

multi-model consensus. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently

completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected

during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models,

hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance.

The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the

global models to become even more conducive during the next couple

of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only

possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the

slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some

fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly

shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause

gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been

significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to

the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the

lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first

36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning

areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.

2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains

low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin

far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible

outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major

hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with

as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of

missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service

has begun launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days

away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge

impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's

track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal

flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern

states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be

required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing

heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These

heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if

the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood

potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head

toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is

possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH

48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$

Forecaster Brown

[mosi76]

MH... 115mph..951mb

 

NHC sticks with same track as 5pm advisory FWIW

[Chase]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  01/0300Z 23.8N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH 12H  01/1200Z 23.5N  73.8W  110 KT 125 MPH 24H  02/0000Z 23.6N  74.5W  120 KT 140 MPH 36H  02/1200Z 24.7N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH 48H  03/0000Z 26.6N  74.7W  110 KT 125 MPH 72H  04/0000Z 31.6N  74.7W   95 KT 110 MPH 96H  05/0000Z 36.2N  75.6W   85 KT 100 MPH120H  06/0000Z 38.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH$$Forecaster Brown

 

That track (and the key takeaways) are identical to the 5pm advisory, except for a slight jog south in the Bahamas.  

But 140. Wow. 

[RUMG11]

Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the
satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye
has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric
central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has
measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface
winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of
100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have
delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.

[Ian]

Quite impressive. Now if only we could get a track nailed down

Cat 5 prob a reach and they'd maybe need a plane in there at the time.. it needs to move a bit before it upwells too much as well.

[mosi76]

anybody think the GFS comes back north or stays put or even slips a little further south?

[BTRWx]

anybody think the GFS comes back north or stays put or even slips a little further south?

Never play the guessing game with a weather model before it initializes.

[yoda]

For ref... 00z RGEM at 48:

 

[cmichweather]

Cat 5 prob a reach and they'd maybe need a plane in there at the time.. it needs to move a bit before it upwells too much as well.

THC is maximized in this area, it can probably slosh around for a while but it is really strong so upwelling/bathwater battle will be close. 

[GEOS5ftw]

I've seen some ocean heat content images that suggest upwelling won't be a big limiter where the system currently is. I do wonder what will happen when the upper diffluence really kicks in as the SE trough goes negative.

 

It does seem that NHC is wary to change intensity w/o corroborating recon even though it was clear that the system was steadily strengthening today. Makes you wonder how reliable the records are in other basins that just depend on sat, but that's another discussion. They should be going to 6-hourly fixes tomorrow anyway so that should give a good sample of the max intensity.

[cmichweather]

THC is maximized in this area, it can probably slosh around for a while but it is really strong so upwelling/bathwater battle will be close. 

I'm actually more "concerned" about the water north as the NE fetch is going to really have the waves going up before the storm even enters the area it might really struggle with shear and water once it gets around the SC/NC border. 

[famartin]

just wow

Oh?

[Derecho!]

So Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 just flatly stated (a direct quote) that the NHC track was  "not within the realm of possibility of coming towards us" and it would either hit North Carolina or go out to sea. 

 

I'm simply dumbfounded. 

[Kmlwx]

So Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 just flatly stated (a direct quote) that the NHC track was  "not within the realm of possibility of coming towards us" and it would either hit North Carolina or go out to sea. 

 

I'm simply dumbfounded. 

I mostly like Kammerer - but there's been a few times he's been questionable. If those were his exact words that sounds pretty irresponsible.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

So Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 just flatly stated (a direct quote) that the NHC track was  "not within the realm of possibility of coming towards us" and it would either hit North Carolina or go out to sea. 

 

I'm simply dumbfounded. 

And... This is why I talked more about the cone of uncertainty and potential impacts the storm would have on Central VA if it went right or left of the "center". Sigh... 

[TerpWeather]

So Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 just flatly stated (a direct quote) that the NHC track was  "not within the realm of possibility of coming towards us" and it would either hit North Carolina or go out to sea. 

 

I'm simply dumbfounded. 

Not defending him but I've talked to him recently about this

 

He's putting very heavy weight on the Euro/knows full well what happens if he confirms the track NHC is putting out

 

But yes, very irresponsible

[Derecho!]

I mostly like Kammerer - but there's been a few times he's been questionable. If those were his exact words that sounds pretty irresponsible.

 

They were his exact words. In a twitter fight with him now. 

 

He claims that's what NHC said. I'm sure NHC would be horrified by his statement. 

[yuki neko]

Recon's back up...

Still moving SW and intensifying

[Deck Pic]

So Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 just flatly stated (a direct quote) that the NHC track was  "not within the realm of possibility of coming towards us" and it would either hit North Carolina or go out to sea. 

 

I'm simply dumbfounded. 

 

 

I mostly like Kammerer - but there's been a few times he's been questionable. If those were his exact words that sounds pretty irresponsible.

 

He's probably right

[eurojosh]

GFS is a hair hairier through 12....