Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 954mb nice steady deepening, maybe the HWRF wasn't so bad after all, or maybe this is just one of the 2 times a day a stop clock is right. There has been some sheer, but the lack of dry air anywhere near the storm has definitely helped. Models do show some dry air affecting it after 48hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice graphic, Ian. Tbh- I would just like to have the center track to our S and W if we are going to feel the effects in this region. Anything to our E and N may as well miss all together. We're in a tough spot to feel the effects of any tropical. The events are rare here and this setup offers the possibility of memorable. I would prefer not to remember light rain and 10 knot breezes. That's exactly the way I feel about it. I was hoping for something that allow me experience either the heavy rain or the high winds. I fear neither are going to happen here with a westward track into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Starting to wonder if my 130-135mph/lower 940s-upper 930s might not be strong enough for the max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's hard to believe because it's utterly bat-**** crazy. Even the slower solutions somehow end up hitting the NE US on this ensemble suite. Here they are... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f84.gif 1) Not all gefs ensembles are being shown, 2) Some of those are clearly offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 1) Not all gefs ensembles are being shown, 2) Some of those are clearly offshore Except when they aren't http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_18z.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 One of the obs showed 102kts SFMR wind. However, it's flagged data so probably inaccurate. Nonetheless a very very impressive intensification rate today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Woah. Finally got home and just saw this. Pressure down to 954.949 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 949.3lowest pressure at eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 949 mb Official advisory was 954. Extrapolated can be off by a bit I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stronger system now might favor a more ens type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stronger system now might favor a more ens type solution. I assume GFS Ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think we will prob break the majorless streak with this one. Godzilla Nino ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Except when they aren't http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_18z.png Where are the rest? Shouldn't there be 21? https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs *sorry for the banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 AL, 11, 2015100100, , BEST, 0, 239N, 730W, 100, 951, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think we will prob break the majorless streak with this one. Godzilla Nino ftl. What's the streak at right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I agree Bob. Northeast would be meh but that's not going to happen. I just hope it's close enough to destroy us at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What's the streak at right now?Almost 10 years. Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost 10 years. Wilma. Thanks! I want this to come north because if it goes south of the Outer banks the devastation there may not be fixable.. If it hits NC/VA boarder I think it spares the banks. Having said this, would you agree being outside of 72 hours this isn't the final solution, and a correction to the north is more likely than further currection south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks! I want this to come north because if it goes south of the Outer banks the devastation there may not be fixable.. If it hits NC/VA boarder I think it spares the banks. Having said this, would you agree being outside of 72 hours this isn't the final solution, and a correction to the north is more likely than further currection south? I dunno really. I think NC has the best chance just because it has the most coast to hit. I doubt it hits SC but it seems stuff is still bending west. I'd still favor a general area of Morehead City to the southern tip of MD but not being a homer weenie it seems like central or southern part of that is currently favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I dunno really. I think NC has the best chance just because it has the most coast to hit. I doubt it hits SC but it seems stuff is still bending west. I'd still favor a general area of Morehead City to the southern tip of MD but not being a homer weenie it seems like central or southern part of that is currently favored. When is landfall anticipated assuming it's from nc to md? Apologies if this has been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks like it's stopped moving south... Also popped an eye Saved image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When is landfall anticipated assuming it's from nc to md? Apologies if this has been posted. Anywhere from Sunday morning at the earliest, to Monday. Hard to determine even the day at this point, and that's assuming that landfall actually took place in/ near NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks! I want this to come north because if it goes south of the Outer banks the devastation there may not be fixable.. If it hits NC/VA boarder I think it spares the banks. Having said this, would you agree being outside of 72 hours this isn't the final solution, and a correction to the north is more likely than further currection south? All reasonable options are still on the table. It's more likely that there will be a northerly correction as opposed to a more southerly one. That said, at this time frame and with the complex setup, it's just simply too early for any of us to make any definitive projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost 10 years. Wilma. It seems long but I think we went from 1966 to 1985 without a major hurricane hitting the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks! I want this to come north because if it goes south of the Outer banks the devastation there may not be fixable.. If it hits NC/VA boarder I think it spares the banks. Having said this, would you agree being outside of 72 hours this isn't the final solution, and a correction to the north is more likely than further currection south? Norfolk has the landscape of New Orleans and the region has almost 2 million people. The NC/VA solution would be far more devastating than OBX.Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks! I want this to come north because if it goes south of the Outer banks the devastation there may not be fixable.. If it hits NC/VA boarder I think it spares the banks. Having said this, would you agree being outside of 72 hours this isn't the final solution, and a correction to the north is more likely than further currection south? A hit at the NC/VA border is still gonna be a hit on OBX. OBX is so far east that if VA is gonna get hit then they are too. I dont really get what your trying to say here? Just let the damn thing go out sea please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Norfolk has the landscape of New Orleans and the region has almost 2 million people. The NC/VA solution would be far more devastating than OBX. Sent from my XT1254 Agreed. Not to mention the damage to the southern bay area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks like it's stopped moving south... Also popped an eye Saved image She's a beaut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A hit at the NC/VA border is still gonna be a hit on OBX. OBX is so far east that if VA is gonna get hit then they are too. I dont really get what your trying to say here? Just let the damn thing go out sea please.Sparsely populated NE NC gets the brunt on an OBX hit and the storm weakens to a TS/weak cat 1 before it gets to Tidewater. It would still be costly, but Isabel was about the most Tidewater can take. A Cat 2/3 direct hit with Norfolk/Virginia Beach in the NE quadrant would be a major disaster.Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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