SabreAce33 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:07 PM, MN Transplant said: dtk would be able to answer this better than me. The tight inner core dynamics are not going to be simulated in the GFS, so the exact pressure doesn't matter much. The bigger problem would be a weak system that isn't "seen" at all by the model. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Game over. Bust for the American guidance once again, though the UKMET was temporarily fooled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:08 PM, ers-wxman1 said: It's finished. OTS. and there you have it folks! At least we're not torching again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:05 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: If the GFS is right, any state of emergency will look silly in hindsight. I guess you have to think 4-5 days down the road in these situations though.Would be fitting, my governor here in NJ just issued one, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 3:59 PM, Ian said: This one's killer for the cone. Pretty clear they are trying to minimize error rather than give the most likely forecast at this point. They are probably hamstrung by rules....but doesn't make their cone the last number of issues any less silly....and I am sure there are plenty of people at NHC who agree and there is nothing they can do about it....So what will be their 2pm cone? A Storm barreling toward Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:10 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Game over. Bust for the American guidance once again, though the UKMET was temporarily fooled as well. and the CMC and a few others. Jesus, its like no one remembers things. And it isn't a bust. A change in 24 hours is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At least we get to see one more crazy HWRF and possible GFDL scenario. The glass is always half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:20 PM, mattie g said: So...umm... I'm driving to Hilton Head tomorrow... Stay on high ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 State of Emergencies (States of Emergency?) are declared too liberally anymore since there's no real repercussion (which may be too harsh of a word) for not needing it but severe ones for not declaring one and then needing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:22 PM, smokeybandit said: State of Emergencies (States of Emergency?) are declared too liberally anymore since there's no real repercussion (which may be too harsh of a word) for not needing it but severe ones for not declaring one and then needing it. Pretty much, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:22 PM, smokeybandit said: State of Emergencies (States of Emergency?) are declared too liberally anymore since there's no real repercussion (which may be too harsh of a word) for not needing it but severe ones for not declaring one and then needing it. Google headlines now comparing this to sandy. Misleading as ****, and making the whole weather community look bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:28 PM, Amped said: Google headlines now comparing this to sandy. Misleading as ****, and making the whole weather community look bad! There will of course be a lag in us declaring it OTS to the general public getting that word. Probably by later this evening people will be talking about what a "change" in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 New Jersey declared a State of Emergency due to Friday's Nor Easter first, then IF Joaquin comes up the coast or not. Parts of Jersey got nailed with 3 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday, now another 2-3 inches Friday with coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z GGEM MAJOR HIT... 979 MB just NE of OBX at 72... moves WSW at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:35 PM, yoda said: 12z GGEM MAJOR HIT... 979 MB just NE of OBXToo bad (or thank goodness) that won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GGEM is nice! Wonder how the uk and Euro respond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:21 PM, MN Transplant said: Stay on high ground. Might be able to get about 3' ASL. Think that'll be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:35 PM, yoda said: 12z GGEM MAJOR HIT... 979 MB just NE of OBX If that ends up being correct, this entire forum should stand outside of the Canadian Embassy on Constitution Avenue and sing O Canada... ETA: Naked. ETA: In the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the Canadian is right I will quit the board for the remainder of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Watching the GGEM during the warm season has really put a dent in my respect for it, I must say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z UKIE says bye bye.... no one gets anything from Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:41 PM, yoda said: 12z UKIE says bye bye.... no one gets anything from Joaquin It's probably correct given the models folding the last 24 hours. I'm sure the HWRF and GFDL will stay interesting to keep a few really hopeful weenies interested. Recon is about to get to the center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's sort of interesting to think about if the Euro didn't exist for this event. This would have just seemed like a sudden shift in the modeling rather than a "cave" to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I actually really like the NHC's "Key Messages" section at the end of each of these discussions. I think they succinctly laid out the case throughout yesterday that out to sea was a clear possibility and conveyed uncertainty fine. That little section is what prevented even more hype from yesterday's 5-day track/cone, IMO. CNN, etc., still are trying to hype but the out to sea option is at least covered within the stories. I agree with everyone else that the 5-day product should not include point positions, and that the cone should be manually created to convey the uncertainty of the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:48 PM, Kmlwx said: It's sort of interesting to think about if the Euro didn't exist for this event. This would have just seemed like a sudden shift in the modeling rather than a "cave" to the Euro. The Euro is a great model and forgot the rule from winter, no Euro support= use extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automator Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:35 PM, Mikeymac5306 said: New Jersey declared a State of Emergency due to Friday's Nor Easter first, then IF Joaquin comes up the coast or not. Parts of Jersey got nailed with 3 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday, now another 2-3 inches Friday with coastal flooding. If you read the Virginia Governor's declaration, it's clear they are more concerned with the front rolling through today and tomorrow than the hurricane. Several counties had flood damage earlier this week, and Friday might be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still think gotta wait to see if the high exerts more westward push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoNerd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the Euro verifies, what "mistake" was made by the other models? Was it the speed of the winds around the ULL and thats why the new soundings yesterday helped the GFS initialize better? Edit: Weaker winds around ULL would not steer it to N/NW more quickly to get above the ULL. #noob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:35 PM, Mikeymac5306 said: New Jersey declared a State of Emergency due to Friday's Nor Easter first, then IF Joaquin comes up the coast or not. Parts of Jersey got nailed with 3 inches of rain Tuesday/Wednesday, now another 2-3 inches Friday with coastal flooding. A state of emergency over 5 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon through the center now. Looks a hair south of west of the last position fix. But it's definitely not moving SW anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.