dailylurker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I figured since I started the first trend. I might as well start the second one. This trend is for strictly Joaquin discussion. *NO BANTER* Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneFatGuy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lurker, I rarely ever post. Just looking for some analogues. What does history tell us at this point? Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 11am NHC Track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know its not going to dissipate, so if I'm rooting for OTS what do I root for? Stronger than forecast? Would that steer it away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know its not going to dissipate, so if I'm rooting for OTS what do I root for? Stronger than forecast? Would that steer it away? The faster intensification and being stronger is part of the reason for the west trend in guidance. I suppose one of the things that could help tug it east are the remnants of Ida re-organizing but if Joaquin becomes a major as forecast then I'm not sure it matters. Other factors like the blocking hp to the north being overdone (kinda close in now for that to be modeled with large errors) or the ull in the SE to throw a curve. We're awful close in (<84 hours) for the important features to contain large errors in strength and placement. Landfall to the north of us would spare us the brunt as well. Any landfall from ILM to ORF is going to leave a mark here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For reference... 12z RGEM at 48 hrs SLP map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know its not going to dissipate, so if I'm rooting for OTS what do I root for? Stronger than forecast? Would that steer it away? Seems like we're getting heavy rain regardless. How heavy depends on where the PRE sets up. Looks like the NAM wants to focus it closer to our area than what the GFS has. GFS seems to swing the heavy precip through our area and to the SW where it really ends up dumping. We still get rain, but not catastrophic rains. Certainly not the 20" totals the GFS spit out for parts of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The faster intensification and being stronger is part of the reason for the west trend in guidance. I suppose one of the things that could help tug it east are the remnants of Ida re-organizing but if Joaquin becomes a major as forecast then I'm not sure it matters. Other factors like the blocking hp to the north being overdone (kinda close in now for that to be modeled with large errors) or the ull in the SE to throw a curve. We're awful close in (<84 hours) for the important features to contain large errors in strength and placement. Landfall to the north of us would spare us the brunt as well. Any landfall from ILM to ORF is going to leave a mark here. It won't slam into a HP to the north so some of the due north tracks seem sketchy. It will turn hard left or veer right for the reasons you say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If this thing made landfall somewhere on the central NC coast as a strong category 1 or a weak category 2 would DC metro be in line for TS conditions? It seems like it if came ashore near Norfolk we certainly would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If you're rooting for an OTS solution then hope it continues to bury itself further and further SW. At some point it will be too close to the ULL to the northeast and an eastward motion will ensue. I wouldn't bank on that happening however. The ridge to its North is forecasted to gradually weaken which allows Joaquin to move North and then its up to the ULL over the Southeast to tug it back towards the coast. If it wasn't for that system, Joaquin would have probably moved towards Florida. The only reason the ridge is weakening some is because of the deep trough moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rayno- http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/hurricane-joaquin-to-unleash-f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If this thing made landfall somewhere on the central NC as a strong category 1 or a weak category 2 would DC metro be in line for TS conditions? It seems like it if came ashore near Norfolk we certainly would. Many of you know Typhoon Tip (NE Met). He thinks the wind field expands as the system moves North because that is just a natural occurrence as tropical cyclones gain latitude and the isobars become less compressed. In some cases you might think that weakens the surface winds, and it probably will closer to the center, but when you throw in that blocking high to the North, it will cause a re-compression and the end result could be strong winds several hundred miles to the North of wherever the landfall point is. My hunch is that if the system landfalls North of the NC/VA border the winds at landfall point will end up disappointing, much as they did with Sandy. Not the same setup, but you have a lot of similarities here. You just don't get a fully tropical system North of 35N except in the rarest of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue: GFS 12z init #Joaquin at 982 mb -- not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thanks for the explanations everyone. If I can't get OTS, anything that at least spares me the higher winds is good... I think I can handle the rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue: GFS 12z init #Joaquin at 982 mb -- not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb. The globals just aren't going to initialize at the right pressure. I don't see this as a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not a good look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue: GFS 12z init #Joaquin at 982 mb -- not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb. Terrible analysis and misunderstanding on his part for how data assimilation works. The GFS cannot fully resolved a TC, so it is not appropriate to initialize it all the way to the observed value (which, by the way, the tcvitals "ob" has uncertainty associated with it as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Terrible analysis and misunderstanding on his part for how data assimilation works. The GFS cannot fully resolved a TC, so it is not appropriate to initialize it all the way to the observed value (which, by the way, the tcvitals "ob" has uncertainty associated with it as well). Fair enough! Had noticed the globals were not initializing with the correct pressure in yesterday's runs either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs looks to hold serve again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like GFS still captures it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a bit south I think...slams into NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Incoming on gfs incredible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ILM-OBX landfall at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right into ILM. Big jump south and would be a crushing blow to the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NAM and GFS very similar at 500 at f60; both imply backed mid-level flow ahead of Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right into ILM. Big jump south and would be a crushing blow to the OBX and then into central NC. This is the furthest south run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 trough digs so much deeper this run, seems to get under joaquin later, so it pulls it towards the coast much sooner than before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 and then into central NC. This is the furthest south run yet That far south and due west track over land would spare us any wind/tidal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Important to note the trend on the last 3-4 GFS runs, South every time. Much further and it's going to be hello Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That far south and due west track over land would spare us any wind/tidal issues. Yeah, there would be some rise and it would be windy, but nothing dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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