USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the storm is going under a reconstruction of sorts in recent satellite imagery. I think its on the positive side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Actually its the only known Cat 4 in history to hit NC......this setup worries us a bit the OBX have taken a beating over the last week and even if it went exactly where the NHC has it going it would be really bad out there, if it did something more like the HWRF and put the OBX on the eastern side of the center the OBX will be trashed maybe worse than they have in many dozens of years..... Good to know. I hope you guys are spared anything too serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Once the first batch of precip moves northeastward out of the region, the stalled frontal boundary comes back northwestward into the region as a warm front with a ton of rainfall. Over 1.5" of rain after Thursday. Thursday looks like the best day of the week. Dry for about 18 hours. Also GFS appears to bring Joaquin down to 972mb just northeast of the Bahamas at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GFS deepens Joaquin rapidly, strong 500mb vorticity feedback, suggests rapid intensification. Also such a large and strong ridge northeast of Joaquin, GFS shows no Ida influence at all. May actually be more northeastward with landfall location. Too soon to tell only out to hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue is posting these publicly on twitter. So I assume fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 0Z looks pretty similar to 18Z.. and stronger at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 James Hyde @wxmeddler 2m2 minutes ago GFS going all gung-ho on the RI so far. 20 mb lower than last run at same time step (h36). #yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tip do you think Joaquin is losing his convection strength due to the DMIN? First of all ... I thought Joaqiun was a girls name - ahaha. Maybe he's one of those born with both sets? Looks like normal diurnal pulsations but they don't typically dictate the total story, so I'm less inclined to think this particular permutation in convection means much come tomorrow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right into ORF it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 102 hr looks to make landfall around NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS shows such an intense 500mb wind core, I could only imagine what the surface winds are like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Free http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/ygfs_t1534_global.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Folks, keep this in mind as we drill into the cold season... Assuming some semblance of verification here, how bad will he last two cycles of the op. Euro be Of course, these runs could all be wrong too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Reminds me of the Euro from a few days ago...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Reminds me of the Euro from a few days ago...... you mean just yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 you mean just yesterday at 12z Wasn't sure when - but you see my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 90 knots at LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Huge fetch for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 90 knots at LF Euro is going to be great. Why do I have a feeling I'll be up at 1:45? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What a crushing for VA to srn NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The servers seem to be slowing on amwx uh oh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 The servers seem to be slowing on amwx uh oh lolwill pick up once the MA power grid fails, fine for me though right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hey gang, first post back since hail storms in August... Interesting... In trying to anticipate the steering on this vs. 18z GFS runs: I expected the deeper tropical system on this run to have a more delayed extratropical transition hence delayed capture and hook left, with a more northeast landfall further up the coast. No doubt overly simplistic, but curious what others think. Not the dominant steering factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think it goes extra tropical. It's a discrete warm core entity that remains intact and follows H5-H3 pipeline into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 0z GFS is just a perfect capture of the system into the trough which bangs it right into VA...watching it on animation is pretty freaking sweet actually. What is also interesting is how timing really gets held off...especially for our region. This really gets more complicated with each run as to what we are looking at scenario wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think it goes extra tropical. It's a discrete warm core entity that remains intact and follows H5-H3 pipeline into VA. I must be using the term "extratropical transition" too loosely or incorrectly. It remains warm core even just after it makes landfall in VA, but the transition into some sort of asymmetric hybrid system captured at H5 looks like it happens before landfall, and the timing of this capture seems to be a key factor in where it makes a left hook. In any case, this is definitely more academic this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Early making of an eye...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Early making of an eye...? latest_09_30_1am.jpg Looks like it. Eyewall starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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