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No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets


Ginx snewx

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I was thinking about this last night. this would be the perfect place to put Ray, Jay and Kevin and all the others who want to experience a cane. put them on an isolated Bahama Island in a old Army bunker for 3 days, perfect. Nobody dies, nobody's house,school,church is destroyed. Its just them versus nature. we should set up a go fund me account , we could throw EEK in there as a bonus .

Those islands have been getting ripped a new one for a solid day now.  unreal.

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I was thinking about this last night. this would be the perfect place to put Ray, Jay and Kevin and all the others who want to experience a cane. put them on an isolated Bahama Island in a old Army bunker for 3 days, perfect. Nobody dies, nobody's house,school,church is destroyed. Its just them versus nature. we should set up a go fund me account , we could throw EEK in there as a bonus .

That wouldn't suffice. I want to be able to see trees snapping,experience the fury of the winds etc... No bunker

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I was thinking about this last night. this would be the perfect place to put Ray, Jay and Kevin and all the others who want to experience a cane. put them on an isolated Bahama Island in a old Army bunker for 3 days, perfect. Nobody dies, nobody's house,school,church is destroyed. Its just them versus nature. we should set up a go fund me account , we could throw EEK in there as a bonus .

Would be disappointing.  I'd rather ride it out 75 miles or so inland.  Too much blowing spray near the coast that kills the visibility.

 

Palm trees are also really boring in the wind.  I want to see the 140' old growth white pines across the street in action.

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I was thinking about this last night. this would be the perfect place to put Ray, Jay and Kevin and all the others who want to experience a cane. put them on an isolated Bahama Island in a old Army bunker for 3 days, perfect. Nobody dies, nobody's house,school,church is destroyed. Its just them versus nature. we should set up a go fund me account , we could throw EEK in there as a bonus .

lol.  I might want in on that trip.

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All I can say is that if that 12z NAM solution verified ... it would be HUGELY exposing as to the state of the art of the technology/advancement... 

 

As in, very little advancing... 

 

It would mean an utter futility of "modeling" this thing, AT ALL.  

 

It would mean all model runs heretofore have been 100% inaccurate - period.  Pure guess work.  May as well just plot the hurricane based upon sat/rad and forecast the past ...

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That article is not entirely accurate...  The Euro was for a time also curling left and so forth, ... it wasn't really until about 2.5 days or so ago that it started abruptly taking this thing out to sea.  If it happens, okay - but the model wasn't always dead set on dissent.

 

Granted, the article does mention "if", in the context of if J. indeed bee-lines it ... but, if say, and odd-ball scenario of the NAM were to take place, as I just posted, 0 models get any credit, period, up until this morning.  

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All I can say is that if that 12z NAM solution verified ... it would be HUGELY exposing as to the state of the art of the technology/advancement...

As in, very little advancing...

It would mean an utter futility of "modeling" this thing, AT ALL.

It would mean all model runs heretofore have been 100% inaccurate - period. Pure guess work. May as well just plot the hurricane based upon sat/rad and forecast the past ...

I would love to be a fly on the wall at NHC if Joaquin did end up heading for LF.
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That article is not entirely accurate...  The Euro was for a time also curling left and so forth, ... it wasn't really until about 2.5 days or so ago that it started abruptly taking this thing out to sea.  If it happens, okay - but the model wasn't always dead set on dissent.

  

 

Well yes, the Euro was curling westward when it was 7 days out.  The first run to show completely out-to-sea was 00z Tuesday (Monday night's run).  The other models started to pick up on Thursday, and here on Friday, some still think this may hit land (NAM).  

In terms of practical forecasting, the model was pretty dead set on dissent when it started to actually matter.  With 120 hours of lead time, it schooled the American guidance.  What it showed at day 7-10 is fairly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

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