CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I do understand what you mean J, but small scale nuances can easily alter the track when the pattern is already intricate. You can argue that minor changes out west help keep the central Plains ridge extending into Ontario which then helps force the s/w near Maine a bit further SE. Just a ton of complexity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GGEM still landfalling near ORF or just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The ridge over Quebec is quite intense still, it produces easterlies or northeasterlies to the northeast and north of Joaquin, I don't see how he moves northeastward into that ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean. Also anyone thinking that Joaquin is upwelling any water given his slow movement, my best guess is that is not happening given that OHC is pretty high in the Bahamas. Also his outer edges you can see on WV imagery is being influenced by that upper level trough over the SE US. South, southwesterlies are impinging upon the cirrus canopy, while he remains underneath ideal intensification conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Also convection is really intensifying in the southern eye wall right now. Almost close to -90C cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Even and HC states there hasn't been an eye wall replacement cycle though so I don't know what you think it's Enduring The same thing many others in this thread thought. I do know what I'm enduring right now...another one of your posts. Thanks for keeping it short. For once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Right back to no consensus. Euro is big again tonight. Who woulda thought. Good lord imagine if this thing comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Strongest winds in western eyefall at that location in the Atlantic? One thing about that run I'm sure won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GEFS mean west as well (similar distance in jog west as we saw in Operational) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GEFS mean west as well (similar distance in jog west as we saw in Operational)perks my interest more than gfs and nam and cmc being west combined. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well the 18z GEFS were not a blip... I count at least 9 members that make landfall, and further south than 18z GEFS SBosx where are ya? 0z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here comes the EURO. If this thing somehow unlikely trends decently west, then we've got a real clusterf*ck to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hey weathercoins yeah I was hoping to put this to end earlier tonight (for the sake of work, sleep) but these are a little concerning for OTS... can't believe we are back to a dichotomous cluster on the GEFS 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls + 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun + 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun All get there somewhat differently, but still objectively this is a little concerning for locking the OTS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hey I'm here about to fire up computer for euro. Was driving home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NW of 12z at 60. But Quebec high should push it out to sea still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And not surprisingly. . . Euro came northwest...! Shifted ~ 100-150 miles northwest by hour 72, still too far to have significant impacts but a big shift nonetheless. Let's see where it goes from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still very much out to sea in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Still very much out to sea in the end. But a big shift west. That is all we need at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A massive shift really comparing the 12z to 0z. But considering it's still not even close it's tough to feel momentum. If ensembles are better.. then hey, yeah. But right now the Joaquin is torturing the whole east coast an arm's length away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 By hour 96 shifted ~200 miles or more north... trend towards 0z GFS and actually looks to be within NHC's cone (just updated at 2am)... which is out to sea. It's still for the fishes and surfers, but it's the biggest northwest jump Euro has made in the past 2 days. The 0z models picked up on something tonight. With so many moving parts far more complex than winter storms we track... with GEFS / CMC still showing potential... bottomline is this still bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 wxsniss, on 02 Oct 2015 - 02:23 AM, said: By hour 96 shifted ~200 miles or more north... trend towards 0z GFS and actually looks to be within NHC's cone (just updated at 2am)... which is out to sea. It's still for the fishes and surfers, but it's the biggest northwest jump Euro has made in the past 2 days. The 0z models picked up on something tonight. With so many moving parts far more complex than winter storms we track... with GEFS / CMC still showing potential... bottomline is this still bears watching. Ok....At least we are making progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Seriously, good luck to those islands that have a cat 4 just sitting on top of them. Ridiculous storm duration. They must be in really rough shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 sbos_wx, on 02 Oct 2015 - 02:27 AM, said:Seriously, good luck to those islands that have a cat 4 just sitting on top of them. Ridiculous storm duration. They must be in really rough shape. Yea....Im sure we will be seeing plenty of footage of it come saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Took a look at the 0z HWRF, GFDL, not much west shift compared to earlier 18z, pretty much within the NHC cone out to sea and that makes it closest land approach by the Cape. Seriously, good luck to those islands that have a cat 4 just sitting on top of them. Ridiculous storm duration. They must be in really rough shape. Topography of south part of Long Island must be getting a shave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Took a look at the 0z HWRF, GFDL, not much west shift compared to earlier 18z, pretty much within the NHC cone out to sea and that makes it closest land approach by the Cape. Topography of south part of Long Island must be getting a shave... GOES05452015275sigMK4_10_02_2am.jpg Important to note that this is a storm that is already affecting the coastlines in the area and erosion is likely. Big surf. Maybe some good rain for SE portions too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 74.8 w 23.2n moving west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6z NAM is a North Carolina landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The current situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 4k NAM is way out to sea unlike it's 12k counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS is getting ready to launch. This'll be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.