Mophstymeo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wtf is the gfs trying to do here Screw with us. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GFS looks like a capture and northwestward turn as it reaches the latitude of the Outer Banks of NC. Plus, I don't think its an EWRC but there is some fluctuations going on in the inner core right now which is why there is no discernible eye on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z GFS looks like a capture and northwestward turn as it reaches the latitude of the Outer Banks of NC. Plus, I don't think its an EWRC but there is some fluctuations going on in the inner core right now which is why there is no discernible eye on IR. More of a Northward turn rather than NW to my eyes, a scraping of extreme southeastern New England (Cape Cod) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 it looks almost like edouard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Should have know this was going to happen after I posted the spaghetti with every single model going OTS and said as of now this does not appear to be a threat to our region. If you ever want to revive a storm, have me cancel it on SCW and it'll be back the next cycle. Still dry for the region verbatim except the cape, but that's a substantial shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wtf is the gfs trying to do here Real useful model, jumping from NC to fish to scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 it looks almost like edouard I hate that storm more than last years blizzard. Very Edouard like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 it looks almost like edouard Painful bust that storm was...I remember it was supposed to hug 70W and then almost go NNW into E LI and CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Real useful model, jumping from NC to fish to scraper. I like the Edouard flashback to 1996. As a 12 year old on Labor Day I cried when I finally realized it was going OTS. The scars are still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS marches the storm W then WNW from 00z through 12z today..not sure that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ...Did this run initialize poorly like it did 24 hours ago or something? Right when we thought sleep at a normal hour was a possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z vs. 18z GFS This is image is very instructive. I mentioned the drop in the NAO, flipping negative over next few days. Check out how much stronger the N Atlantic high is in just one run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nam west, gfs west. All I said was keep an eye on this and got laughed at. Annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't see the NAO connection. The trough pushing through the area near Maine helps shove that ridge south. Quebec ridge is also a big stronger too, but that is not the NAO domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off.could have pretty impressive impacts for some in sne with this scenario. Obviously the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off. Yeah a rule I've always used over the years up in our neck is always hedge right of any modeled track as it gains latitude unless there is an overwhelming reason not to. (like a bizarre Sandy type setup or some other obvious leftward steering mechanism) Given the inconsistency of the GFS anyway, this is probably just another crap solution and I'd be surprised if the Euro and company came west outside of trivial movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Interesting both NAM and GFS are west at 0Z. Another jump west like that at 6Z and we will be talking a Great Lake cutter. Can't ignore both models coming west now. Yeah, just when you thought it was totally ova it sucks you back in. I refuse to wait for the Euro. Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah a rule I've always used over the years up in our neck is always hedge right of any modeled track as it gains latitude unless there is an overwhelming reason not to. (like a bizarre Sandy type setup or some other obvious leftward steering mechanism) Given the inconsistency of the GFS anyway, this is probably just another crap solution and I'd be surprised if the Euro and company came west outside of trivial movements. Agreed on both counts. I do the same with storms up this way. I need a compelling reason why it's coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Watch the euro not budge an inch. Although the GFS track is plausible and goes more with climo then the left turn in to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I like the Edouard flashback to 1996. As a 12 year old on Labor Day I cried when I finally realized it was going OTS. The scars are still there. Lol! I had the exact same reaction living in Hamden. Total bewilderment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm mobile. Anyone have 0z late trop, cmc, uk, anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ukmet is east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Where was the euro at 12z vs 0z last night? (Besides being far out to sea, I mean.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I can see why it's doing what it is doing regarding the changes NE of Maine and they may be real based on the last few runs, but it also may be moving Joaquin NW than N too quick which allows those changes to mean something. And yeah...we all should be aware of how these things love to turn right anytime they sniff stronger westerlies. I wouldn't really change my thinking with one run of an inconsistent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't see the NAO connection. The trough pushing through the area near Maine helps shove that ridge south. Quebec ridge is also a big stronger too, but that is not the NAO domain. I'm not sure how you don't see an "NAO connection" given its inverse influence on the westerlies. That image is not the "entire domain" but a sizable chunk of it. You can deduce the areas further north towards Greenland, based on the geopotential heights in that graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some interesting checks on the OTS train While the 0z GFS shifted west late into a Cape scraper and the 0z NAM makes landfall in SC (where prior runs today were OTS), these 2 solutions had very little in common. What had my attention more was the 18z GEFS bringing several members (8 of 20) making landfall similar to the 0z NAM track whereas the 12z suite had only 1 of 20. Amazing how sensitive these solutions are to slight perturbations. Not near a computer but very curious to see what 0z GEFS do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not sure how you don't see an "NAO connection" given its inverse influence on the westerlies. That image is not the "entire domain" but a sizable chunk of it. You can deduce the areas further north towards Greenland, based on the geopotential heights in that graphic. I am looking at height based changes and I don't see your connection. The small change was from a s/w trough in Quebec and had little to do with the NAO domain. Those NAO changes you posted earlier don't have an immediate effect on small scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 CMC hits Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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