Gwhizkids Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have good friends down in GSP. Man is that an ugly 5 day rainfall map.I have a daughter in GSP. I don't think she really grasps what's coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 lol looks like landfall in SC at 57h on 0z NAM... what a waste of electricity vs. coup of the century This NAM run is interesting coming on the heels of that 18z GEFS shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Am I going to be alive for the next 1938? I'm getting ridiculously impatient. Is a regionwide blowdown really so much to ask? Just not enough historical data to know if that was a 1 in 500 year event. I'll say this, I don't want to be living in W MA if we do get a 1938 redux. The current infrastructure would take months if not years to restore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I should probably log off Twitter soon before I have a full Joaquin related meltdown. Sometimes you just need to push back from the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nice to see NHC has finally left the party most of us left by 5 p.m. yesterday I think they overstayed their welcome with a few too many libations (like Kevin after 4 zimas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It took me a few years but I don't click buttons on the nam page anymore. Helps with my sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nice to see NHC has finally left the party most of us left by 5 p.m. yesterday I think they overstayed their welcome with a few too many libations (like Kevin after 4 zimas) They kinda lead the hysteria by doing so, a bit perplexed they moved so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I should probably log off Twitter soon before I have a full Joaquin related meltdown.please remember that in winter about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 please remember that in winter about the NAM The NAM is more useful in the winter than it is with TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This NAM run is interesting coming on the heels of that 18z GEFS shift. Sorry to ask this, but I skipped over the earlier posts from this morning, what was the '18z GEFS shift"? I just figured they were further east than earlier runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter. I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude. I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude. I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter. I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude. I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude. I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds. Totally agree. We'll probably have 35 knot easterly winds from the pressure gradient alone. This is probably more due to the 1040 mb high nosing into Quebec than Joaquin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM is more useful in the winter than it is with TCs.No its only useful as toilet paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Totally agree. We'll probably have 35 knot easterly winds from the pressure gradient alone. This is probably more due to the 1040 mb high nosing into Quebec than Joaquin though.got that tonight on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No its only useful as toilet paper Well... if people look at a QPF or snow output map from the NAM and take it verbatim they're asking for one hell of a bust. It can be very useful identifying small mesoscale features that coarser NWP or a model with different physics won't. It's useful if used properly in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well... if people look at a QPF or snow output map from the NAM and take it verbatim they're asking for one hell of a bust. It can be very useful identifying small mesoscale features that coarser NWP or a model with different physics won't. It's useful if used properly in the winter.rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm not sold on the 00z NAM, nor should anyone else be for that matter. I think the NHC track is too far east when it comes to passing through 40N latitude. I think it will be close to if not over 69.5W when it comes to this latitude. I think it will be close enough to SNE to bring extra rain and tropical storm force winds. My goodness dude.You are obviously a fairly smart guy but you simply cannot let go of a storm. It hurts you're credibility and reduces you're intelligence to a wish casting weanie when you refuse to accept the facts in front of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm confident that we have observed the peak intensity. The vast majority of the time, once the ERC hits, they are "skunked" for the duration of their lives, and never fully recapture their pre ERC vigor. But to have any chance, you must have an absolutely pristine envt, and by 24-36 hours when this is done, it will have already interacted with the mid latitude festivities. Quite true, though J is staying pretty clean so far. Still very concentric with a ring a deep new convection appearing around the center. Doesn't have that sloppy taco-ed wheel appeal you sometimes see during ERC, nor any dry air intrusions. Not that it matters for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yea, it is enduring the ERC well...but all movement has halted so upwelling may become a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yea, it is enduring the ERC well...but all movement has halted so upwelling may become a factor.that water has to be hot deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 My goodness dude.You are obviously a fairly smart guy but you simply cannot let go of a storm. It hurts you're credibility and reduces you're intelligence to a wish casting weanie when you refuse to accept the facts in front of you. he is not wishcasting imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 recon showing a steady pressure now.. 935-937 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 that water has to be hot deep Problem is that the Bahamian shelf waters are relatively shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GOES22452015274q3qdGS_10_01_6pm.jpg Couldn't be much worse for Bahamas, this must be among their worst if not worst storm in modern record last HWRF has this start to turn north around 0z, should be apparent over next few hours luckily those islands aren't nearly as populated as nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yea, it is enduring the ERC well...but all movement has halted so upwelling may become a factor.Even and HC states there hasn't been an eye wall replacement cycle though so I don't know what you think it's Enduring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pretty noticeable shift to the west on 00z GFS run compared to the 18z fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z vs. 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Gfs is west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wtf is the gfs trying to do here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.